Geographic patterns of Poland’s FDI: the investment development path perspective

The purpose of the present study is to incorporate geographic analysis of FDI into the classic IDP model. By supplementing the traditional analysis of the net outward investment (NOI) position with an analysis of geographic patterns in inward and outward FDI, the authors strive to offer a better explanation of Poland’s current NOI position and provide more in-depth support to some necessary policy recommendations. Hence the main contribution of this study to the international business scholarship is two-fold. It (1) further develops the IDP research methodology; and (2) provides a better understanding of the idiosyncratic nature of the IDP of Poland.     

Perceptions of older consumers regarding food packaging as a prerequisite for its improvement: A case study of Polish market

In many societies, the scale of demographic change associated with increased longevity has the potential to influence the market for consumer goods. As a result, continuous improvement in packaging design that takes into account the needs of older people should become an important challenge for both packaging producers and product manufacturers. Due to the fact that there is limited research concerning the design of food packaging for older people, the aim of the study was to identify the expectations of this group of consumers in this respect. Milk packaging was selected as a model subject of study. Factors influencing older consumers and their buying patterns when purchasing milk have been thoroughly examined. The research was conducted among people over the age of 60 with the use of three methods: a questionnaire (600 subjects), an in‐depth interview (60 subjects) and eye tracking (30 subjects). The results of the study show that older consumers have specific preferences regarding packaging type and design. When considering milk packaging, for example, they prefer glass bottles, simple graphics and font and subdued colours. They most frequently look for information concerning the product's expiration date, its producer's name and its composition. Eye tracking revealed that the older the consumers are, the more problems with finding expiration date they have. The time required to find such information, however, strongly depends on where exactly the expiration date is printed on the packaging. The preferred place in this case is the top of the bottle. Older consumers identify product's brand with the name of the producer. Moreover, the absence of the term ‘ingredients’: on the milk packaging oftentimes causes confusion among older people, who are concerned about potential food additive content.     

Forecasting household debt with latent transition modelling

Latent transition modelling (LTM) was used to forecast household debt patterns. A model based on three waves (2011, 2013 and 2015) and over 36,000 responses from the biennial panel study of Polish households – Social Diagnosis – provided data for these forecasts. Based on the fact that transitions between latent states are shaped by previous latent states and socio-economic covariates – age of household head, income and number of household members – we were able to demonstrate LTM as a tool to generate aggregate predictions for both medium- and long-term evolution of the household credit market. The declining tendency for household credit participation rates in Poland is expected in the longer term. In particular, the trend should be supported by decline in the proportion of mortgage debtors. The groups of households indebted for the consumption of durables and those seeking credit outside the banking sector are the groups predicted to remain stable or increase in size.     

Does unemployment lead to a less healthy lifestyle?

In this article, we use 22 years of data from the German Socio-Economic Panel and information on plant closures to investigate the effects of unemployment on four indicators of unhealthy lifestyles: diet, alcohol consumption, smoking and (a lack of) physical activity. In contrast to much of the existing literature, which unlike our analysis is unable to assess causality, our results provide little evidence that unemployment gives rise to unhealthy lifestyles.     

Russia's Gas Sector: In Need of Liberalization in the Context of the Shale Gas Revolution and Energy Relations with the European Union

Rising gas production from nonconventional deposits in North America and the possibility of growth in the rest of the world pose a serious challenge to Russian energy interests. Although Russia has the largest proven gas reserves and is the number one exporter of fossil fuels, its position as a dominant gas supplier to the European Union (EU) is diminishing. This article examines the main problems of Russia's gas sector in the context of the shale gas revolution and the liberalization of the EU gas market. The article also analyses the perspectives of Russia's energy relations with EU countries and formulates some recommendations for them.     

Selection of a Representative Value Function for Robust Ordinal Regression in Group Decision Making

In this paper, we introduce the concept of a representative value function in a group decision context. We extend recently proposed methods UTA^GMS-GROUP and UTADIS^GMS-GROUP with selection of a compromise and collective preference model which aggregates preferences of several decision makers (DMs) and represents all instances of preference models compatible with preference information elicited from DMs. The representative value function is built on results of robust ordinal regression, so its representativeness can be interpreted in terms of robustness concern. We propose a few procedures designed for multiple criteria ranking, choice, and sorting problems. The use of these procedures is conditioned by both satisfying different degrees of consistency of the preference information provided by all DMs, as well as by some properties of particular decision making situations. The representative value function is intended to help the DMs to understand the robust results, and to provide them with a compromise result in case of conflict between the DMs.     

The Aggregate Relation between Profits and Concentration is Consistent with Cournot Behavior

An important and controversial stylized fact inindustrial organization is the positive correlationbetween industry profit and concentration. Oneinterpretation of this finding is based on thetheories of Chamberlin and Stigler, which imply thatconcentrated industries facilitate collusion. Butnon-cooperative profit maximizing behavior can alsogenerate a positive correlation. This paperpresents an equilibrium model of oligopoly whichnests the behavioral assumptions of Bertrand,Cournot, and Chamberlin. Simulations of the modelunder the Cournot assumption yield regressioncoefficients for the profits-concentration relationthat are very close to the estimated coefficients inthe literature.     

Demographic impacts in central and eastern European countries

All countries undergoing socioeconomic transformation in the central, eastern, and southeastern parts of Europe, regardless of the progress made in systemic transformation, have witnessed significant changes in their population. This paper presents some of these demographic changes and considers the dynamics produced by a drop in reproduction rates and the declining frequency of marriages. The intensity of these changes tended to vary. All of the countries, with the exception of Albania, are characterized by low birth rates approaching nominally the level of death rates. Infant mortality rates in the majority of the countries were relatively high at the beginning of the 1990s compared with their minimum.     

Robust pricing and hedging under trading restrictions and the emergence of local martingale models

We pursue the robust approach to pricing and hedging in which no probability measure is fixed, but call or put options with different maturities and strikes can be traded initially at their market prices. We allow the inclusion of robust modelling assumptions by specifying a set of feasible paths on which (super)hedging arguments are required to work. In a discrete-time setup with no short selling, we characterise absence of arbitrage and show that if call options are traded, then the usual pricing–hedging duality is preserved. In contrast, if only put options are traded, a duality gap may appear. Embedding the results into a continuous-time framework, we show that the duality gap may be interpreted as a financial bubble and link it to strict local martingales. This provides an intrinsic justification of strict local martingales as models for financial bubbles arising from a combination of trading restrictions and current market prices.