Simulation model of the polish economy

This paper presents some results of the simulation model of the Polish economy in transition from the planned to market one. The simulation model is nonlinear and dynamic. It consists of 800 balance equations, 40 of which are difference state equations. The basic time unit is one quarter while the calculation horizon spans between three and 10 years. It was calibrated to the 1994–96 statistical data. The model contains the aggregates of production (divided between the state and private sectors and three production branches), households, public sector, banking system, and foreign trade. The simulation attempts to forecast chosen macroeconomic variables resulting from different scenarios. Sets of effective (Pareto-optimal) solutions and effective growth paths of economy were obtained. The simulation results help to better understand the macroeconomic process in the transition period and can be useful for central-level decisionmakers. This work was partially supported by grant No. 1 HO2B 023 09 from Komitet Badan Naukowych (Polish State Committee for Scientific Research).     

The business cycle implications of the euro adoption in Poland

This article analyses the macroeconomic impact of the loss of autonomous monetary policy after the euro adoption in Poland. Using a two-country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with sticky prices and wages, we find that the euro adoption will have a noticeable impact on the magnitude of economic fluctuations. In particular, the volatility of output, interest rate, consumption and employment is expected to increase while the volatility of inflation should decrease. Also, in order to quantify the effect of the euro adoption, we compute the welfare effect of this monetary policy change. Our findings suggest that the welfare cost is not large.     

Personalization has a Price,Controllability is the Currency: Predictors for the Intention to use Personalized eGovernment Websites

Content personalization on government websites provides individuals with a personal selection of information. In this study, we determine the role of trust in a government organization, trust in the technology, and perceived controllability on the intention to use content personalization for eGovernment websites. A total of 1141 participants were presented with scenarios describing a nonpersonalized webpage and one of four approaches to online content personalization, followed by an online survey. Results were analyzed by means of structural equation modeling. Perceived controllability is the most important antecedent of the intention to use online content personalization for eGovernment; trust in the technology also has a considerable influence. Trust in the government organization plays a minor role. The adaptable approach to online content personalization has the highest likelihood of citizen acceptance. When designing personalized eGovernment information services, designers should instill a feeling of controllability over the coming about of tailored content and trust in the technology.     

Credit crunch in a small open economy

We construct an open-economy DSGE model with a banking sector to analyze the impact of the recent credit crunch on a small open economy. In our model the banking sector operates under monopolistic competition, collects deposits and grants collateralized loans. Collateral effects amplify monetary policy actions, interest rate stickiness dampens the transmission of interest rates, and financial shocks generate non-negligible real and nominal effects. As an application we estimate the model for Poland-a typical small open economy. According to the results, financial shocks had a substantial, though not overwhelming, impact on the Polish economy during the 2008/09 crisis, lowering GDP by approximately 1.5 percent.     

Information and energy policy preferences: a survey experiment on public opinion about electricity pricing reform in rural India

A common argument for the lack of economic reform in developing countries is popular opposition. If current economic policies are dysfunctional, could information about alternatives sway the voters? We examine if a simple argument emphasizing the need to increase electricity prices for improved supply can change public opinion in the case of India’s power sector reforms. The evidence comes from a survey experiment in rural Uttar Pradesh, which is both India’s largest state and has one of the lowest levels of household electrification. As expected, people respond to information about the relationship between electricity pricing, capacity investment, and reliability of supply by increasing their support for higher prices. However, no corresponding increase is observed for privatization of electricity generation. For external validity, we analyze an existing national survey on electricity privatization conducted in 2004/2005, finding patterns that support our argument.     

Co‐Worker Exclusion and Employee Outcomes: An Investigation of the Moderating Roles of Perceived Organizational and Social Support

When does social support alleviate or exacerbate the effects of being excluded by colleagues in the workplace? This study integrates belongingness and social support theories to predict and demonstrate the differential effects of work‐related support (i.e., perceived organizational support; POS) and non‐work‐related support (i.e., family and social support; FSS) on employee reactions to co‐worker exclusion. Consistent with our predictions, we found that employees reporting high levels of co‐worker exclusion and high levels of perceived organizational support demonstrate higher levels of performance and increased levels of self‐worth than those reporting low levels of POS. Alternatively, support from family or friends intensified the negative relationship between co‐worker exclusion and self‐esteem and the positive relationship between co‐worker exclusion and job‐induced tension. Unexpectedly, FSS did not influence the supervisor‐rated task performance of excluded workers, nor did POS mitigate the relationship between co‐worker exclusion and job‐induced tension. Implications for theory, research, and practice are discussed.     

A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of economic voting and political support

We use a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive model to examine the relationship between Canadian political support and macroeconomic conditions. This model is well suited for the analysis because it allows multiple fractional time series and admits simple asymptotic inference for the model parameters and tests of the hypotheses of interest. In the long‐run equilibrium, we find that support for the Progressive Conservative Party was higher during periods of high interest rates and low unemployment, while support for the Liberal Party was higher during periods of low interest rates and high unemployment. We also test and reject the notion that party support is driven only by relative (to the United States) economic performance. Indeed, our findings suggest that US macroeconomic variables do not enter the long‐run equilibrium of Canadian economic voting (political opinion poll support) at all.     

Forecasting crude oil prices with DSGE models

In this study, we conducted an oil prices forecasting competition among a set of structural models, including vector autoregression and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Our results highlight two principles. First, forecasts should exploit the fact that real oil prices are mean reverting over long horizons. Second, models should not replicate the high volatility of the oil prices observed in samples. By following these principles, we show that an oil sector DSGE model performs much better at real oil price forecasting than random walk or vector autoregression.     

On the Empirical Evidence of the Intertemporal Current Account Model for the Euro Area Countries

A simple intertemporal current account model is found to explain successfully the current account configuration in the euro area before the Great Recession. The analysis suggests that consumption smoothing, prompted by expectations of economic convergence and the removal of exchange rate risk, has been an important driving force for the build‐up of current account divergence in the euro area since the creation of monetary union. The model also predicts that current account deficits and surpluses would narrow under a post‐crisis scenario of moderate catching‐up and more segmented bond markets.