Measuring the effectiveness of US monetary policy during the COVID-19 recession

The COVID-19 recession that started in March 2020 led to an unprecedented decline in economic activity across the globe. To fight this recession, policy makers in central banks engaged in expansionary monetary policy. This paper asks whether the measures adopted by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) have been effective in boosting real activity and calming financial markets. To measure these effects at high frequencies, we propose a novel mixed frequency vector autoregressive (MF-VAR) model. This model allows us to combine weekly and monthly information within a unified framework. Our model combines a set of macroeconomic aggregates such as industrial production, unemployment rates, and inflation with high-frequency information from financial markets such as stock prices, interest rate spreads, and weekly information on the Fed's balance sheet size. The latter set of high-frequency time series is used to dynamically interpolate the monthly time series to obtain weekly macroeconomic measures. We use this setup to simulate counterfactuals in absence of monetary stimulus. The results show that the monetary expansion caused higher output growth and stock market returns, more favorable long-term financing conditions and a depreciation of the US dollar compared with a no-policy benchmark scenario.     

How have global financial institutions responded to the challenges of the post-crisis era?

The study examines the largely unexplored effect of changes in the competitive landscape for large, global financial institutions on their ability to take risks, as well as deploy capital and labour in an efficient manner based on a novel measure of inefficiency. The analysis shows during 2001–2013 that inefficiency peaked during the 2008 crisis period and has fallen back to levels close to pre-crisis periods. The model also performs well in out-of-sample forecasts of the financial firms’ future market values. These results suggest that large financial firms have been adjusting to the ‘new normal’ of the post-crisis period and thus are able to use capital and labour more efficiently within the constraints of current market conditions. In addition, a non-linear pattern between inefficiency and a firm’s asset size suggests that there might be an optimal scale for such firms in the $450–650 billion range.     

Reserves vs. federal funds operating monetary procedures: A general equilibrium analysis

The recently adopted reserves-operating target is compared to the old regime. It is found that: (a) the structure of the monetary system is changed, (b) success of the new regime hinges on understanding of the role of borrowed reserves, (c) a major reason for the recent violent gyrations in monetary aggregates—as well as in interest rates—is the Federal Reserve's formula for forecasting borrowed reserves.     

Sociological versus strategic factors in bargaining

Most game-theoretic models of strategic interaction, indeed most economic models of any sort, specify potential outcomes entirely in terms of the preferences of the agents, as captured in their (possibly cardinal) utility functions. The underlying assumption is that the outcome of such interactions is determined entirely by these preferences, together with the strategic possibilities available to the agents. The purpose of this paper is to challenge the adequacy of this assumption in general, by investigating it in the specific context of two-person bargaining. In particular, we consider whether certain experimental results reported earlier can be accounted for strictly in terms of players' preferences and strategic possibilities, and we report a new experimental study designed to answer this question. The results strongly support the conclusion that sociological factors, unrelated to what we normally consider to be the ‘economic’ parameters of a game, can decisively influence the outcome of bargaining, in a systematic manner.     

THE DISTRIBUTION OF PUBLIC EXPENDITURE AMONG HOUSEHOLDS IN THE UNITED STATES*

This paper presents an analysis of the distributive impact of government expenditures in the United States. The analysis uses a household-level microdata file drawn from the 1970 U.S. Census of Population, with additional income and tax variables drawn from the Internal Revenue Service 1969—70 Tax File. The results are presented at both federal and local levels and include analyses of the distribution of individual benefits, as well as of overall taxes and net benefits. Since a microdata file was used, distributional effects are examined with respect not only to the “traditional” variables of income class and household size, but also with regard to the number of earners in the household and the sex and race of the household head. In a further paper in a subsequent issue of this review we will present the results of a similar analysis for the United Kingdom, and compare the results for the two countries.     

Aggregation for material balances

In an input-output system, let final demands and gross outputs be iteratively balanced by successive approximations. The speed of convergence will depend, among other things, on the initial choice of gross outputs. Suppose that, using some aggregation weights, aggregate supply is made equal to aggregate demand in the initial plan. The current paper finds the set of aggregation weights that yields speediest convergence. An economic interpretation of the “optimal” aggregation weights is given, and some examples are calculated. J. Comp. Econ., March 1978, 2(1), pp. 1–11. Boston University, Boston, Mass., and Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Mass.