Evolutionary competition between prediction rules and the emergence of business cycles within Metzler’s inventory model

We revise Metzler??s well-known inventory model by developing a framework in which producers can either apply a simple but cheap extrapolative or a more sophisticated but expensive regressive forecasting rule to predict future sales. Producers are boundedly rational in the sense that they tend to select forecasting rules with a high evolutionary fitness. Using a mixture of analytical and numerical tools, we attempt to describe the characteristics of our model??s dynamical system. Our results suggest that the evolutionary competition between heterogeneous predictors may lead to irregular fluctuations in economic activity.     

Combining Matching and Nonparametric Instrumental Variable Estimation: Theory and An Application to the Evaluation of Active Labour Market Policies

We show how instrumental variable and matching estimators can be combined in order to identify a broader array of treatment effects. Instrumental variable (IV) estimators are known to estimate effects only for the compliers, representing a subset of the entire population. By combining IV with matching, we can estimate the treatment effects for the always‐ and never‐takers as well. Since in many cases these groups are the (endogenous) outcome of some assignment process, such estimates also help in judging the implications of such a selection process. In our application to the effects of participation in active labour market programmes in Switzerland, we find large and lasting positive employment effects for the compliers, whereas the effects for the always‐ and never‐participants are small. In addition, the compliers have worse employment outcomes without treatment than those who participate in the programme with or without the intervention under investigation. This suggests that the earlier assignment policy of the caseworkers was inefficient in that the always‐participants were neither those unemployed who would experience the highest expected treatment effects nor those unemployed who had the largest need for assistance. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Financial market lobbies and pension reform

We develop a model in which firms in the financial market lobby the government to lower compulsory contributions to the public pension system. Firms lobby in order to increase demand from households for their old-age savings products. We conclude with a comparison of two major pension reforms in Europe exemplifying the influence of financial market lobbies on pension policies.     

Efficiency in the international insurance industry: A cross-country comparison

The purpose of this paper is to provide new empirical evidence on frontier efficiency measurement in the international insurance industry, a topic of great interest in the academic literature during the last several years. A broad efficiency comparison of 6462 insurers from 36 countries is conducted. Different methodologies, countries, organizational forms, and company sizes are compared, considering life and non-life insurers. We find a steady technical and cost efficiency growth in international insurance markets from 2002 to 2006, with large differences across countries. Denmark and Japan have the highest average efficiency, whereas the Philippines is the least efficient. Regarding organizational form, the results are not consistent with the expense preference hypothesis, which claims that mutuals should be less efficient than stocks due to higher agency costs. Only minor variations are found when comparing different frontier efficiency methodologies (data envelopment analysis, stochastic frontier analysis).     

Cost Management in Sri Lanka: A Case Study on Volume,Activity and Time as Cost Drivers

Despite its theoretical superiority, the activity-based costing (ABC) model has had only moderate success in replacing the traditional volume-based absorption costing models in complex organizations worldwide. Even in organizations that have launched ABC projects, the implementations often do not sustain. In response to this general lack of enthusiasm worldwide for ABC, accountants developed the time-driven activity-based costing (TDABC) model as an alternative cost allocation model. This paper presents a comparison of the TDABC model with ABC, and considers if this alternative cost allocation model (1) is easier to implement from an international perspective and (2) provides comparable cost information for decision making. We use a case study in a country outside the model's country of origin to understand the similarities and differences in absorption costing systems that use ‘volume,’ ‘activities,’ and ‘time’ as the drivers of indirect cost allocations. We also use the case study to ascertain if any country‐specific factors impede ABC implementation. We conclude the following: the TDABC model has similar implementation complexities to ABC if modelling conditions are strictly adhered to; these complexities are independent of country‐specific factors; and in its simplest form, the model generates the same decision information errors of traditional costing.     

Is the relationship between investment and conditional cash flow volatility ambiguous,asymmetric or both?

We investigate the effect of cash flow volatility on investment. Our evidence suggests that financially constrained firms decrease investment (i) when experiencing persistently high volatility; (ii) when experiencing both high volatility and negative cash flow growth realisations; and (iii) when holding low cash levels and experiencing both high volatility and a negative cash flow growth realisations. In financially unconstrained firms, the above effects are either not found or are of relatively low economic importance. Overall, our findings lend support to the financial flexibility literature and tend to contradict predictions of the real options literature.     

Individual rights and organizational theory

Rights are very important concepts in everyday life. And they are especially important to participants in organizations. Yet, our theories of organization and management have largely ignored rights — stressing, instead, other concepts, such as goals, roles, etc. This article describes the historical significance of rights and their relevance in understanding social behavior. The advantages of a right-based organizational theory (versus traditional goal-based theories) are discussed.This article draws on the author's forthcoming book,A Social-Contract Theory of Organizations (University of Notre Dame Press, 1988).     

The Resource Dependence, Service and Control Functions of Boards of Directors in Hong Kong and Taiwanese Firms

Since the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990's, there have been numerous calls for the reform of East Asian corporate governance. Without reform, fears abound that the crisis will return. However, a baseline understanding of corporate governance in East Asia needs to be established before reform efforts can begin. In the West, three major functions of boards are commonly recognized: resource dependence, service, and control. These functions have yet to be examined in the context of boards of directors of Overseas Chinese firms in East Asia. In this exploratory study, we examine the extent to which these functions are performed, primarily by outside board members, in Overseas Chinese firms in Hong Kong and Taiwan. We find that the service and control functions are less pronounced for East Asian boards than what would be expected in the West, while the resource dependence function is more pronounced. We also findthat the governance of the region is being moved closer to international practices by a new generation of leaders that have been exposed to Western influences and intense global competition. The implications of our findings for managers, educators, and researchers are discussed.     

Size and scope of the underground economy in Germany

The objective of this paper is to improve estimations of the size and scope of the underground economy by introducing a new approach that combines the advantages of the two most commonly used approaches, i.e. currency demand and multiple indicators, multiple causes (MIMIC). The new approach is applied to Germany. Among other things, it is shown that the approach yields improved estimation results. Some policy perspectives are discussed in the concluding section.