G2P – Governmental e-Solutions for the Public: Citizen vs Corporation Aspects

International Advances in Economic Research -     

Contrasting Models of the Effect of Inflation on Growth

Abstract.  The paper formulates a nesting model for studying the theoretical literature on inflation and endogenous growth. It analyses different classes of endogenous growth models, with different usage of physical and human capital, with different exchange technologies. First, the paper shows that a broad array of models can all generate significant negative effects of inflation on growth. Second, it shows that these models can be differentiated primarily by the fact whether there is a Tobin-type effect of inflation and also whether the inflation–growth effect becomes weaker as the inflation rate rises, a non-linearity, or stays essentially constant over the range of inflation rates. The paper compares these features of the models to empirical evidence as a way to summarize the efficacy of the models.     

Testing tariff endogeneity in Japan: A comparison of pre- and post-war periods

This paper tests an endogenous tariff model for Japan (1890–1970). Using a vector autoregression (VAR), I find that tariff changes are endogenous in the post-war period. Rather than being designed to promote economic activity, this suggests that tariffs respond to macroeconomic disturbances.     

Digitalization of SMEs

International Advances in Economic Research -     

Modeling Distribution Channel Dynamics of North American Cars in the Spanish Automobile Industry

Relations between manufacturers and distributors have been the center point of the distribution channel’s management. This study covers the effects of coercive, as well as non-coercive power on intermediary variables such as cooperation and conflict. It will also analyze the effects of cooperation and conflict on American car dealers’ satisfaction and performance in Spain. Due to the small sample size (46 dealers), the model based on causal modeling compelled us to use the optimization method based on the partial least squares (PLS) regression techniques coupled with a bootstrapping to enable some generalization of the results.

The effects of monetary policy in the Czech Republic: an empirical study

In this paper, we examine the effects of Czech monetary policy on the economy within the vector auto regression (VAR), structural VAR, Bayesian VAR with sign restrictions, and factor-augmented VAR, frameworks. We document a well-functioning transmission mechanism similar to the euro area countries, especially in terms of persistence of monetary policy shocks. Subject to various sensitivity tests, we find that a contractionary monetary policy shock has a negative effect on the degree of economic activity and the price level, both with a peak response after one year or so. Regarding prices at the sectoral level, tradables adjust faster than non-tradables, which is in line with microeconomic evidence on price stickiness. There is no price puzzle, as our data come from a single monetary policy regime. There is a rationale in using the real-time output gap instead of current GDP growth, as using the former results in much more precise estimates. The results indicate a rather persistent appreciation of the domestic currency after a monetary tightening, with a gradual depreciation afterwards.     

Can behavioral nudges and incentives help lower-income households build emergency savings with tax refunds? Evidence from field and survey experiments

Tax refunds are an opportunity for lower-income households to accumulate emergency savings so they have cash on hand to cover expenses when income is insufficient. Our field experiments testing different behavioral interventions to encourage refund saving via online tax filing show small effect sizes (0.12–0.14) and a low aggregate savings rate (12%) that might be increased were filers to receive financial incentives. We test a key provision of the Refund to Rainy Day Saving and Financial Security Credit Acts using a survey experiment, finding that hypothetical refund saving jumps from 16% with no financial incentive, to 71% and 80% with 25% and 50% matches, respectively, findings which are mostly insensitive to refund size. Our results suggest that public policies to provide greater financial support—including stronger income supports—will better prepare lower-income households for financial emergencies than behavioral interventions to nudge refund saving.     

Real Exchange Rate Forecasting and PPP: This Time the Random Walk Loses

This paper brings four new insights into the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) debate. First, we show that a half-life PPP (HL) model is able to forecast real exchange rates better than the random walk (RW) model at both short and long-term horizons. Second, we find that this result holds if the speed of adjustment to the sample mean is calibrated at reasonable values rather than estimated. Third, we find that it is preferable to calibrate, rather than to elicit as a prior, the parameter determining the speed of adjustment to PPP. Fourth, for most currencies in our sample, the HL model outperforms the RW also in terms of nominal exchange rate forecasting.