中国不同省份金融结构转变与产业结构升级关系的实证研究

随着我国社会主义市场经济改革的不断深入，现有金融结构已不能适应经济发展。本文从金融结构调整的角度出发，对中国较发达地区，欠发达地区以及基于全国的数据进行面板回归。通过对实证结果的分析，得出金融结构调整对产业结构调整并不是简单线性关系的结论，金融结构调整应有合理的范围，当金融结构在其范围内变化时，能够促进经济的增长，当金融结构的调整超过合理范围时，金融功能的负作用会逐渐增强，当负作用积累到一定程度，会对经济的发展起到阻碍作用，我国各省份应根据自己的实际发展情况和自然禀赋，选择合适的金融结构和经济发展模式。     

Financial Imbalance Index as a New Early Warning Indicator： Methods and Applications in the Chinese Economy

Based on the stylized facts of financial crises and systemic risk accumulation, this paper constructs a new financial imbalance index （FII） from the perspective of endogenous financial cycles and assesses its application in China＇s macro-financial analysis. The results show that the FII is not only an effective index to detect financial imbalances in China＇s economic cycles, but is also more accurate than and plays more of a leading role than conventional indicators, such as the consumer price index, the financial conditions index and the purchasing managers indicator. Empirical analysis shows that the FII can be used as an effective indicator to measure systemic financial risk, and can provide policy-makers and market participants with useful information to make appropriate decisions.     

Convergence analysis and optimal strike choice for static hedges of general path-independent pay-offs

In this paper, we propose a new algorithm to find the optimal static replicating portfolios for general path-independent nonlinear pay-off functions and give an estimate for the rate of convergence that is absent in the literature. We choose the static replication by designing an adaptation function arising in the error bound between the nonlinear pay-off function and the linear spline approximation and derive the equidistribution equation for selecting the optimal strikes. The numerical tests for variance swaps, swaptions, static quadratic hedges and also for a jump-diffusion process, allowing for the default of the underlying asset, show that the proposed iterative equidistribution equation algorithm is simple, fast and accurate. The paper generalizes and improves the results on static replication and approximation in the literature.     

Measuring misleading information in IPO prospectuses

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - Newly public firms may provide misleading information about their business plans in their initial public offering (IPO) prospectuses. Using textual...     

The 52-week high momentum strategy in international stock markets

We study the 52-week high momentum strategy in international stock markets proposed by George and Hwang [George, T., Hwang, C.Y., 2004. The 52-week high and momentum investing. Journal of Finance 59, 2145-2176.]. This strategy produces profits in 18 of the 20 markets studied, and the profits are significant in 10 markets. The 52-week high momentum profits exist independently from the Jegadeesh and Titman [Jegadeesh, N., Titman, S., 1993. Returns to buying winners and selling losers: implications for market efficiency. Journal of Finance 48, 65-91.] individual stock and Moskowitz and Grinblatt [Moskowitz, T.J., Grinblatt, M., 1999. Do industries explain momentum? Journal of Finance 54, 1249-1290] industry momentum strategies. These profits do not show reversals in the long run. We find that the 52-week high is a better predictor of future returns than macroeconomic risk factors or the acquisition price. The individualism index, a proxy to the level of overconfidence, has no explanatory power to the variations of the 52-week high momentum profits across different markets. However, the profits are no longer significant in most markets once transaction costs are taken into account.     

Real exchange rates: are they dominated by fundamental factors?

Using Bayesian model averaging, we determine which fundamental pair-wise differences suggested by the literature on optimum currency areas give the best explanation of medium-term variability of bilateral real exchange rates. The intercept in the best specification is statistically insignificant, implying that for a hypothetical pair of economies for which the differences were zero, the bilateral real exchange rate would not move. Thus, the ‘non-fundamental’ element of the medium-term real exchange rate variability is, in our sample at least, negligible on average. In other words, floating exchange rate does not in itself imply, on average, more real exchange rate variability in the medium term than an exchange rate peg.     

规划建设沿边经济带的政策思考

规划建设沿边经济带是巩固边疆的战略举措,有利于保障国土安全和边疆社会稳定,促进区域协调发展,增进民族团结,改善与邻国边疆局面的关系.目前,自然地理条件普遍较差,人口分布稀少,经济发展和基础设施建设滞后,城市发育不足,营商环境不佳是我国沿边经济带发展的主要制约因素.规划建设沿边经济带,应以地级行政区为基础单元,聚焦于培育新的经济增长极、完善区域性中心城市功能和改善营商环境,需要国家和地方政府的大力支持,推进体制机制创新,加强国内区域和国际区域次区域合作.     

安徽:打造农村文明交通名片

正近年来,随着农村道路建设步伐的不断加快和机动车辆的不断增加,农村交通安全问题也日益突出。安徽交警加强多部门协作联动,围绕实施"文明交通行动计划"工作重点,开展农村地区交通安全宣传工作,全力打造农村文明交通名片。推动文明交通进农村安徽省长助理、省公安厅厅长李建中对农村交通安全管理工作高度重视,在省十二届人大常委会第八次会议联组会议暨全省农村公路建设发展情况省人大代表专题询问会上,提出了以农村公路交通事故数下降、事故     

Heterogeneity in Production Structures and Efficiency: An Analysis of the Czech Food Processing Industry

The present study analyses firm heterogeneity and sector‐specific technology. The theoretical model stands on the assumption of maximizing the return on capital and overcomes problems involved in simple profit maximization. The results show that a random parameter model with sector dummies and heteroscedasticity is the most appropriate model specification for distinguishing firm‐level and sector‐level efficiency and heterogeneity. The heterogeneity among firms as well as among sectors was found to be an important characteristic in Czech food processing. This holds for production technology as well as for technical efficiency. Moreover, the decomposition of total variance shows that intrasectoral differences in technologies are much more pronounced than the intersectoral differences. The differences in intrasector heterogeneity also suggest that the food processing industry will be subject to accelerated structural change in the coming years. Moreover, we found that on average the companies highly exploit their production possibilities. However, some companies cannot keep pace with competitors. Because leapfrogging does not appear to be present in selected industries (except for Milling), structural change is expected to occur in such a way that the most successful companies will strengthen their position.