Insurance fraud detection: A statistically validated network approach

Fraud is a social phenomenon, and fraudsters often collaborate with other fraudsters, taking on different roles. The challenge for insurance companies is to implement claim assessment and improve fraud detection accuracy. We developed an investigative system based on bipartite networks, highlighting the relationships between subjects and accidents or vehicles and accidents. We formalize filtering rules through probability models and test specific methods to assess the existence of communities in extensive networks and propose new alert metrics for suspicious structures. We apply the methodology to a real database—the Italian Antifraud Integrated Archive—and compare the results to out-of-sample fraud scams under investigation by the judicial authorities.     

Vertical Contract Disclosure in Three-Tier Industries*

Consider a three-tier industry with a monopolist supplying a manufacturer which sells its product to final consumers through two retailers. Contracts are linear and secret. Hence, upon receiving an out-of-equilibrium offer, each retailer must form a belief about the identity of the deviating upstream firm. This beliefs' specification problem wipes out if an Open Book Accounting (OBA) policy is implemented, whereby the input price is disclosed to retailers. Under Cournot (Bertrand) competition, OBA increases industry profits and consumer surplus if retailers believe that any out-of-equilibrium offer is more likely to reflect a deviation by the upstream supplier (by the manufacturer).     

Cooperative movement and widespread prosperity across Italian regions

Our goal is to participate in the debate on regional well-being. To this end, we explore the relationship between prosperity and the cooperative movement at the regional level in Italy between 2010 and 2019. We summarize prosperity through an index originally proposed by Amartya Sen and we apply it to classify Italian regions. We then perform panel analyses showing that there is a positive and significant association between such an index and the cooperative presence. We detect that, and explain why, the cooperative movement contributes to the regional prosperity more through its employment than in terms of the added value it generates.     

Can optimism solve the entrepreneurial earnings puzzle?*

In this paper, we apply a general equilibrium occupational choice model to the study of the impact of optimism on the earnings of entrepreneurs and workers. We extend the work of Lucas (1978 Bell Journal of Economics 9, 508–523) by assuming a fraction of individuals are optimistic about their ability as entrepreneurs. The model shows that optimism leads to a misallocation of talent and inputs, which raises input prices and lowers output. The model is calibrated to match salient features of the UK economy and the British Household Panel Survey. The calibration shows that optimism can account for more than half of the size of the entrepreneurial earnings puzzle in the UK.     

Sources of uncertainty in functional measurement methodology

Quality & Quantity - Functional measurement methodology is applied in many psychological fields to investigate cognitive operations of information integration that people use in judgment and...     

On sellers' cooperation in hybrid marketplaces

Hybrid marketplaces, such as Amazon's and Zalando's stores or Apple's and Google's app stores, which distribute their own products and services in competition with those of third-party sellers, play a significant and growing role in the Internet economy. This paper shows that, other things equal, such platforms would maximize their profits if they lowered the fees charged to sellers and the prices charged to consumers in response to cooperation agreements between third-party sellers: horizontal mergers or collusive agreements. It also shows that such cooperation can be pro-competitive when the platform is a vertically integrated gatekeeper, adopts the agency business model, is a close competitor to the third-party sellers it hosts, and observes (or correctly anticipates) the third-party sellers' agreement. The discussion here is of significant policy relevance, since third-party sellers in online marketplaces may find it easier to collude and may respond to the bargaining power of certain gatekeeper platforms by merging their activities.