Dominant Currencies and the Future of the Euro

The paper's thesis is that the US dollar, despite the inevitable erosion of market share that it will suffer at the hands of the euro, will remain the most important international currency. The transaction domain of an international currency depends on its ability to lower transaction costs relative to alternative currencies. The EMU financial markets will not be as integrated, and thus as liquid, as the US financial markets for quite some time, thus favoring the use of the dollar as a medium of exchange. Inertia and reputational considerations further favor the dollar. The future value of the exchange rate dollar-euro will depend on economic fundamentals more than on portfolio shifts. Portfolio shifts argue for an appreciation of the euro; but fundamentals can swamp the effects of portfolio shifts. Should the EMU fundamentals reflect the spirit of the Maastricht Treaty and the Growth and Stability Pact, the chances for a euro appreciation will increase. Some caution, however, is in order because the ECB is a new and untested central bank where consensus for a conservative policy may be harder to achieve than can be gleaned from a literal reading of the Maastricht Treaty.     

Vertical Contract Disclosure in Three-Tier Industries*

Consider a three-tier industry with a monopolist supplying a manufacturer which sells its product to final consumers through two retailers. Contracts are linear and secret. Hence, upon receiving an out-of-equilibrium offer, each retailer must form a belief about the identity of the deviating upstream firm. This beliefs' specification problem wipes out if an Open Book Accounting (OBA) policy is implemented, whereby the input price is disclosed to retailers. Under Cournot (Bertrand) competition, OBA increases industry profits and consumer surplus if retailers believe that any out-of-equilibrium offer is more likely to reflect a deviation by the upstream supplier (by the manufacturer).     

Financial market models with Lévy processes and time-varying volatility

Asset management and pricing models require the proper modeling of the return distribution of financial assets. While the return distribution used in the traditional theories of asset pricing and portfolio selection is the normal distribution, numerous studies that have investigated the empirical behavior of asset returns in financial markets throughout the world reject the hypothesis that asset return distributions are normally distribution. Alternative models for describing return distributions have been proposed since the 1960s, with the strongest empirical and theoretical support being provided for the family of stable distributions (with the normal distribution being a special case of this distribution). Since the turn of the century, specific forms of the stable distribution have been proposed and tested that better fit the observed behavior of historical return distributions. More specifically, subclasses of the tempered stable distribution have been proposed. In this paper, we propose one such subclass of the tempered stable distribution which we refer to as the “KR distribution”. We empirically test this distribution as well as two other recently proposed subclasses of the tempered stable distribution: the Carr–Geman–Madan–Yor (CGMY) distribution and the modified tempered stable (MTS) distribution. The advantage of the KR distribution over the other two distributions is that it has more flexible tail parameters. For these three subclasses of the tempered stable distribution, which are infinitely divisible and have exponential moments for some neighborhood of zero, we generate the exponential Lévy market models induced from them. We then construct a new GARCH model with the infinitely divisible distributed innovation and three subclasses of that GARCH model that incorporates three observed properties of asset returns: volatility clustering, fat tails, and skewness. We formulate the algorithm to find the risk-neutral return processes for those GARCH models using the “change of measure” for the tempered stable distributions. To compare the performance of those exponential Lévy models and the GARCH models, we report the results of the parameters estimated for the S&P 500 index and investigate the out-of-sample forecasting performance for those GARCH models for the S&P 500 option prices.     

Bank loan recovery rates: Measuring and nonparametric density estimation

In this paper we analyse a comprehensive database of 149,378 recovery rates on Italian bank loans. We investigate a new methodology to compute the recovery percentage that we suggest to consider as a mixed random variable. To estimate the probability density function of such a mixture, we propose the mixture of beta kernels estimator and we analyse its performance by Monte Carlo simulations. The application of these proposals to the Bank of Italy’s data shows that, even if we remove the endpoints from the support of the recovery rate, the density function estimate is far from being a beta function.     

Retirement Choices in Italy: What an Option Value Model Tells Us*

Using Italian data, we estimate an option value model to quantify the effect of financial incentives on retirement choices. As far as we know, this is the first empirical study to estimate the conditional multiple‐years model put forward by Stock and Wise (1990) . This implies that we account for dynamic self‐selection bias. We also present an extended version of this model in which the marginal value of leisure is random. For the female sample, the model is able to predict almost perfectly the age‐specific hazard rates. For the male sample, we obtain a good fit. Dynamic self‐selection results in a downward bias in the estimate of the marginal utility of leisure. We perform a simulation study to gauge the effects of a dramatic pension reform. Underestimation of the value of leisure translates into sizeable over‐prediction of the impact of reform. Due to lack of data, results for males should be interpreted with caution since we are not able to fully correct for dynamic self‐selection bias.     

Mortality, Fertility, and Saving in a Malthusian Economy

We develop a model of fertility choice by utility maximizing households, based on an explicit notion of intergenerational external effects. In contrast to previous economic literature, we assume that the external effects run from children to parents. This gives rise to a fundamentally different reason for bearing of children, as parents expect to be cared for, at least partially, by their children in their old age. We take the behavior of infant mortality since 1541 as the key exogenous variable and endogeneize the size of the transfer from children to parents by linking it to the endogenous savings and fertility choice of the parents. This generates a dynamic model of a Malthusian society that performs substantially better, qualitatively and quantitatively, than previous economic models of endogenous fertility.     

An Assessment of the Within-Year Seasonality in the Loan Loss Provisioning Behavior of European Banks

This study aims at assessing whether a significant within-year seasonality exists in the loan loss provisioning behavior of European listed banks observed in the period from 2004 to 2013. Since the accuracy of auditing processes and the level of disclosure requirements in financial reports differ among quarters, during the year, banks may have a leeway to underestimate and postpone the complete provisioning of loan losses in the less regulated and less audited quarters. We hypothesize that those differences are relevant factors which determine non-lower or significantly higher average levels of loan loss provisions in the half-yearly and especially in the annual financial reports than in the interim management statements disclosed in the first and the third quarters of the year. We also investigate the impact of the recent financial crisis and develop a special analysis for the ltalian banks＇ case. The empirical results support our hypotheses, suggesting that, in some cases, a convergence among quarterly levels of auditing processes and disclosure requirements may be needed. Our work contributes to the existing literature by providing additional evidences and considerations on the within-year seasonality in the loan loss provisioning behavior of European listed banks observed in the last decade.     

Globalisation,industrial diversification and productivity growth in large European R&D companies

This paper aims to assess the impact of both geographic and industrial diversification of economic activities on the productivity performance of large European R&D Multinational Enterprises (MNEs). Based on the worldwide subsidiaries of these firms, we measure the performance of the firms according to their level of industrial diversification and globalisation that we proxy with the presence and importance of subsidiaries in the EU, North America and Asia–Pacific regions. The sample consists of large R&D firms that represent about 80 % of total European R&D. In general, the results indicate a positive impact from globalisation on firms’ R&D productivity, especially in the US, while a negative impact for industrial diversification is found.     

Il mercto interbancario dei depositi: Previsione a breve e gestione della riserva obbligatoria

La capacità di fare previsioni sul mercato monetario è un punto cruciale nella gestione ottima di tesoreria di una banca, anche in virtú della possibilità di mobilizzare parte della riserva obbligatoria presso la Banca d’Italia. In questo studio viene mostrato come l’uso congiuuto di tecniche di previsione per i tassi a breve e la costruzione di un modello decisionale per la gestione della liquidità, basato sulle previsioni, permettano Alla banca di attnare una politica piu attiva con risultati globalmente positivi, in termini di interessi percepiti. A tal tine viene proposta una classe di previsori detti caolici e impostato un problema di decisione dinamica per la gestione ottima della riserva obbligatoria. Infine, si mostra un’applicazione di tale strategia sui tassiOvernight.