Short-term inflation projections: A Bayesian vector autoregressive approach

In this paper we construct a large Bayesian Vector Autoregressive model (BVAR) for the Euro area that captures the complex dynamic inter-relationships between the main components of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and their determinants. The model generates accurate conditional and unconditional forecasts in real-time. We find a significant pass-through effect of oil-price shocks on core inflation and a strong Phillips curve during the Great Recession.     

The impact on the pricing process of costly active management and performance chasing clients

One of the necessary features of markets to produce efficient pricing is competition between information-based investors who quickly impound new information into price. However, a significant proportion of funds invested in today’s equity markets are in the hands of managers who pursue a style that utilises little or none of the available information. We simulate such a market where the funds are being managed using the following three investment styles: fundamental, momentum and index. We confirm that the major pricing anomalies that have been highlighted previously in the literature are a natural consequence of competition between managers utilising these three investment styles. More importantly, we show that this situation is unlikely to change as long as markets continue to be dominated by costly active managers with clients who pursue outperformance.     

Self-Construal and Unethical Behavior

We suggest that understanding unethical behavior in organizations involves understanding how people view themselves and their relationships with others, a concept known as self-construal. Across multiple studies, employing both field and laboratory settings, we examine the impact of three dimensions of self-construal (independent, relational, and collective) on unethical behavior. Our results show that higher levels of relational self-construal relate negatively to unethical behavior. We also find that differences in levels of relational self for men and women mediate gender differences in unethical behavior. We discuss both the theoretical and practical implications of these findings.     

Income Inequality in Europe Since the Crisis

Economic inequalities are engendered by a complex process, characterised by several steps and involving the interaction of several factors. The best indicator of individual economic well-being is disposable equivalised income. Evidence shows that welfare states retain a crucial function in Europe and that they have been central in limiting the detrimental effects of the financial crisis on disposable income distribution.     

Does Choice Context Affect the Results from Incentive‐Compatible Experiments? The Case of Non‐GM and Country‐of‐Origin Premia in Canola Oil

We seek to design and implement a WTP elicitation instrument closely resembling an actual grocery shopping experience. An incentive-compatible choice experiment is used to elicit values for a non-GM attribute and a country-of-origin attribute of Canola oil. The choice context is varied to assess whether revealed-preference choice experiments are affected by choice variety. A median premium for non-GM Canola oil is found to approximate C$0.45 or C$0.62/liter according to the choice variety context; different country-of-origin effects are also found as choice context varies. Hypotheses as to why these significant effects of choice contexts occur are suggested.
Nous cherchons à concevoir et à mettre en application un instrument de révélation de la VDP qui ressemble étroitement aux choix que fait un consommateur lorsqu'il effectue son marché. Nous avons utilisé une méthode expérimentale compatible avec les incitations des participants afin de découvrir la valeur accordée à deux caractéristiques de l'huile de canola: non génétiquement modifiée et étiquetée selon le pays d'origine. La liste des choix est variée afin d'évaluer si les préférences révélées sont influencées par la gamme de choix. La prime médiane de l'huile de canola non génétiquement modifiée est d'environ 0,45 $CAN ou 0,62 $CAN le litre selon les choix proposés. Différents pays d'origine figurent aussi dans cette liste de choix. Nous avons formulé des hypothèses quant aux raisons pour lesquelles la gamme de choix a des effets importants.     

INVESTMENT IN HOSPITAL CARE TECHNOLOGY UNDER DIFFERENT PURCHASING RULES: A REAL OPTION APPROACH

Quality of health care is the product of several factors as the literature has long recognized. In this paper we focus on the relationship between quality and investment in health technology by analysing the optimal investment decision in a new health care technology of a representative hospital that maximizes its surplus in an uncertain environment. The new technology allows the hospital to increase the quality level of the care provided, but the investment is irreversible. The paper uses the framework of the real option literature to show how the purchaser might influence the quality level by setting a quality‐contingent long‐term contract with the hospital.The investment in new technology is in fact best incentivated within a long‐term contract where the number of treatments reimbursed depends on the level of investment made when the technology is new. In this way, asymmetry of information does not affect the outcome of the contract. In our model in fact the purchaser can verify the level of the investment only at the end of each period but the purchasing rule has an anticipating effect on the decision to invest.