When Passion Fades: Disentangling the Temporal Dynamics of Entrepreneurial Passion for Founding

This study examines how and why entrepreneurial passion for founding changes over time. In particular, we propose that in the founding phase of a venture's lifecycle entrepreneurs’ founding identity centrality will remain stable over time. We also propose, however, that in our sample and time period studied, entrepreneurs’ intense positive feelings for founding will decrease over time. On the basis of theories of positive illusion, self‐regulation and role theory, we further hypothesize that venture idea change, change in role ambiguity and entrepreneurs’ feedback‐seeking behaviour are factors that help explain the rate of change in entrepreneurs’ intense positive feelings for founding. Using a three‐wave longitudinal research design, we find that among a sample of 112 entrepreneurs’ identity centrality does not change over time, whereas intense positive feelings for founding decrease over time. Moreover, the more entrepreneurs change their venture ideas, the weaker their decrease in intense positive feelings. Further, we show that entrepreneurs who frequently seek feedback suffer less from reduced positive feelings in response to higher increases in role ambiguity as compared to entrepreneurs who seek less feedback.     

Hedonic price models and indices based on boosting applied to the Dutch housing market

We create a hedonic price model for house prices for six geographical submarkets in the Netherlands. Our model is based on a recent data-mining technique called boosting. Boosting is an ensemble technique that combines multiple models, in our case decision trees, into a combined prediction. Boosting enables capturing of complex nonlinear relationships and interaction effects between input variables. We report mean relative errors and mean absolute error for all regions and compare our models with a standard linear regression approach. Our model improves prediction performance by up to 39% compared with linear regression and by up to 20% compared with a log-linear regression model. Next, we interpret the boosted models: we determine the most influential characteristics and graphically depict the relationship between the most important input variables and the house price. We find the size of the house to be the most important input for all but one region, and find some interesting nonlinear relationships between inputs and price. Finally, we construct hedonic price indices and compare these with the mean and median index and find that these indices differ notably in the urban regions of Amsterdam and Rotterdam. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of financial development on economic growth: a meta-analysis

In this article, we contribute to the current debate on the sign and size of the finance–growth relation. To this purpose, we use a meta-analysis with 551 estimates from 68 empirical studies that take private credit to GDP as a measure for financial development. We distinguish between linear and logarithmic specifications. First, we find evidence of significantly positive publication bias in both the linear and log-linear specifications. It suggests the literature has exaggerated the size of the finance–growth effect in the past. Second, we find suggestive evidence that the logarithmic specification is superior to the linear specification. In the logarithmic specification when accounting for publication bias, a 10% increase in credit to the private sector increases economic growth with 0.09 percentage points. For the linear estimates, no significant effect of credit to the private sector on economic growth is found on average. Overall, the evidence points to a positive but decreasing effect of financial development on growth and supports the ‘too much’ finance hypothesis.     

Operations Research in passenger railway transportation

In this paper we give an overview of state-of-the-art Operations Research models and techniques used in passenger railway transportation. For each planning phase (strategic, tactical and operational), we describe the planning problems arising there and discuss some models and algorithms to solve them. We do not only consider classical, well-known topics such as timetabling, rolling stock scheduling and crew scheduling, but we also discuss some recently developed topics such as shunting and reliability of timetables.
Finally, we focus on several practical aspects for each of these problems at the largest Dutch railway operator, NS Reizigers.     

Measuring Transparency in the Dutch Mortgage Market

Summary This paper is an empirical study of pricing in the Dutch mortgage market. For a narrowly defined set of endowment mortgages (with a fixed lending rate of 10 years), we find that the price dispersion within lenders is larger than the dispersion across lenders. Prices remain dispersed across lenders, even after controlling for characteristics of the borrower, the municipality and the government bond rate. Apparently, the mortgage market is not fully transparent, which impedes competition in the mortgage market. We also find that the price dispersion for mortgages sold by banks is smaller than that for mortgages sold by other lenders. A likely explanation is that lenders using middlemen have higher agency costs. We wish to express our gratitude to the National Mortgage Guarantee (Nationale Hypotheek Garantie) in Zoetermeer, in particular Karel Schiffer and Hans Mersmann, for providing us access to their data as well as for their hospitality. We are grateful to Wim van Assenbergh, Harry Garretsen, Ralph de Haas, Jan Lemmen, Clemens Kool, Job Swank and two anonymous referees of this journal for their comments on previous versions of this article.     

Bounding the future: The use of scenarios in assessing climate change impacts

This paper investigates the contribution of socio-economic scenarios to improve decisions and policies in climate assessments. We specifically looked at adaptation projects in the Dutch Climate changes Spatial Planning programme. Based on the four decision failure criteria neglect of internal information, bounded rationality, insufficient expansion of existing mental models and stickiness and lack of friction of information and knowledge, it was concluded that in these projects, socio-economic scenarios appear to generate useful data, but that their full potential to reduce decision failure is not likely to be exploited. Therefore adaptation options suggested by these studies may not be ‘future-proof’: they may be appropriate in some future societies, but fail in others. We believe similar results would be obtained in other contexts. Possible decision failures are caused by neglecting socio-economic developments, limiting the number of storylines generated by scenario studies to one or two, lack of stakeholder involvement in the scenario development and ignoring discontinuities.     

Gender,ethnicity, and unequal opportunity in colonial Uganda: European influences,African realities,and the pitfalls of parish register data

The renaissance of African economic history in the past decade has opened up new research avenues for studying the long‐term social and economic development of Africa. A sensitive treatment of African realities in the evaluation of European colonial legacies and a critical stance towards the use of new sources and approaches is crucial. In this article, we engage with a recent article by Meier zu Selhausen and Weisdorf to show how selection biases in, and Eurocentric interpretations of, parish registers have provoked an overly optimistic account of European influences on the educational and occupational opportunities of African men and women. We confront their dataset, drawn from the marriage registers of the Anglican Cathedral in Kampala, with Uganda's 1991 census, and show that trends in the literacy and numeracy of men and women born in Kampala lagged half a century behind those who wedded in Namirembe Cathedral. We run a regression analysis showing that access to schooling during the colonial era was unequal along lines of gender and ethnicity. We foreground the role of Africans in the spread of education, and we argue that European influences were not just diffusive but also divisive, and that gender inequality was reconfigured rather than eliminated under colonial rule.     

Measuring bank competition under binding interest rate regulation: the case of China

Many empirical studies suggest that financial reform promoted bank competition in most mature and emerging economies. However, some earlier studies that adopted conventional approaches to measure competition have concluded that bank competition in China declined during the past decade, despite progressive reforms implemented since the 1980s. We show that this apparent contradiction is the result of flawed measurement. Conventional indicators such as the Lerner index and Panzar–Rosse H-statistic fail to measure competition in Chinese loan markets properly due to the system of interest rate regulation. By contrast, the profit elasticity (PE) approach does not suffer from these shortcomings. Using balance sheet information for a large sample of banks operating in China during 1996–2008, we show that competition actually increased in the past decade when the PE indicator is used.