Speculative attack against the Hungarian forint

In mid-January 2003 a severe speculative attack was launched against the exchange rate of the Hungarian forint. The attack was very unusual in the history of foreign exchange speculations, since it was aimed at enforcing the appreciation — and not the depreciation — of the currency targeted. The specific nature of this kind of speculation is closely related to Hungary’s accession to the European Union in general and to EMU in particular. Since the other Central and Eastern European acceding countries face similar problems and challenges, the Hungarian experience may involve some instructive lessons on monetary and economic policy for them too.     

证券法上的民事责任功能研究

我国证券市场在短短十几年的时间内,在募集资金、推动国有大中型企业改制、优化资源配置等方面发挥了不可替代的重要作用.但不容乐观的是伴随着证券市场的发展各种违法违规现象在不断发生.尽管我国对证券违法行为明令禁止,并对严重的违法行为加以行政处罚甚至刑事制裁,然而证券市场上的违法行为仍然禁而不止.究其原因,除了管理层对证券市场发展的总体政策摇摆不定,监管者对违法行为处理不力等因素外,证券法上未建立完善的民事责任制度是重要的原因.本文从证券法上的民事责任功能的探讨入手,阐述了证券法上的民事责任具有的功能是证券刑事责任、行政责任所不能替代的原因,进而论证了建立完善的证券民事责任的必要性.     

Liberalisation and de-regulation of the public sector in the transition from plan to market

The above analysis allows several conclusions to be drawn:

基于异构数据库的企业产品质量控制模型设计

企业产品质量控制是一项复杂的系统工程,来自不同生产单元的数据具有较强的异构性,不利于质量控制系统的整合。基于XML的数据集成方案为解决这一问题提供了可能。文章探讨了基于XML的质量控制模型的架构,为产品质量控制提供了一个较好的平台。     

Dominance Statistics: A Simulation Study on the d Statistic

Quality &; Quantity - Cliff (1993) has proposed the use of a measure of effect size alternative to traditionalmean differences: δ {? = Pr(xi1 &;gt; xj2) - Pr(xi1 &;lt; xj2)}which,...     

Optimising a Probabilistic Model of the Development of Play in Soccer

We present a probabilistic model based on the one developed by Hernández Mendo and Anguera (Revista de Psicologíca Social, 16(1), 71–93, 2001). Here we have tried to break down the interaction contexts that the opposing teams are able to generate and transform during the game. We are aware that a given player or team does not produce consistent behaviour in similar situations. However, a degree of uncertainty is assumed to exist regarding whether the results obtained are a specific function of the analysis used. In order to carry out this research a category system which optimized that used in the previous model was developed. This system should enable the interaction between teams to be observed within the actual play of a soccer game. A lag sequential analysis was performed on the basis of a coding of the behavioural flow. After describing the behavioural patterns obtained a probabilistic model of the development of play in soccer is proposed.     

从欧盟《电子垃圾处理法》的出台看国际贸易技术壁垒

世界贸易组织成立后，国际贸易中的保护措施发生了较大的变化。其中关于技术方面的贸易保护措施日益引起各国的高度重视。最近通过的欧盟《电子垃圾处理法》就是其中的一例。笔者在此主要讨论了该法的由来、对中国电子行业产生的影响及其带来的启示。     

建筑工程管理中全过程造价控制对策研究

随着社会经济和科学技术的发展,建筑工程如雨后春笋般涌现出来,规模也呈现出不断扩大的趋势.在对建筑工程进行管理的过程当中,工程造价是一个十分重要的因素,但是,要想在建筑工程当中对工程的造价进行良好的控制是十分不容易的,并且工程造价贯穿于施工的全过程.因此,要对工程造价进行全面良好的控制.     

Do stock market returns predict changes to output? Evidence from a nonlinear panel data model

Recent empirical work suggests a predictive relationship between stock returns and output growth. We employ quarterly data from a panel of 27 countries to test whether stock returns as useful in predicting growth. Unlike previous research, our approach allows for the possible non-linear effect of recessions on the growth-return relationship. There is strong evidence to suggest that a linear model would be misspecified and provide potentially misleading inference. Using a switching regression approach, we find evidence that returns are most useful in predicting growth when the economy is in recession.First version received: November 2002/Final version received: April 2003This paper benefited greatly from discussions with Kalvinder Shields, Mark Harris, Pete Summers, and Vance Martin. Two anonymous referees provided useful comments on an earlier version of the paper for which we are grateful. The usual disclaimer applies to any errors and omissions. Funding from The University of Melbourne greatly assisted in the completion of this paper.     

Mixed Duopoly,Merger and Multiproduct Firms

The literature on mergers has extensively analyzed the decision to merge by private firms, but it has not considered the decision to merge by private and public firms. We assume that when a private firm and a public firm merge (or when one of them acquires the other), they set up a multiproduct firm in which the government owns an exogenous percentage stake. In this framework, we show that the decision to merge by firms depends on the degree to which goods are substitutes and on the percentage of the shares owned by the government in the multiproduct firm.