Animal Spirits and the Business Cycle: Empirical Evidence from Moment Matching

In this article, we empirically examine a hybrid New‐Keynesian model with heterogeneous bounded rational agents who may adopt an optimistic or pessimistic attitude—so called animal spirits—toward future movements of the output and inflation gap. The model is estimated via the simulated method of moments using Euro Area data from 1975Q1 to 2009Q4. In addition, we compare its empirical performance to the standard model with rational expectations. Our empirical results show that the model‐generated auto‐ and cross‐covariances of the output, inflation and nominal interest rate gap can provide a good approximation of the empirical second moments.     

Are Trade Preferences more Effective than Aid in Supporting Exports? Evidence from the ‘Everything But Arms’ Preference Scheme

This study examines the effect of the ‘Everything But Arms’ (EBA) trade preferences regime on exports from the African, Caribbean and Pacific countries (ACP) to the European Union (EU). With this aim, an augmented gravity model is estimated for exports from the 79 ACP countries to the EU‐15 for the time period of 1995—2013 using panel data techniques. The results are used to quantify the effect of the eligibility for EBA preferences on the export performance of the ACP least developed countries (LDCs) and to relate it to the impact of official development assistance on exports. In addition to their separate effects, the combined impact of EBA and aid flows is examined. The main results do not provide evidence for an additional positive effect of the EBA agreement on the export performance of the ACP LDCs. However, receiving aid shows a significant and positive effect on exports from EBA‐eligible ACP countries to the EU‐15, supporting an EU development strategy that includes both sorts of assistance, aid and trade preferences.     

Heterogeneous Firms,Globalisation and the Distance Puzzle

Despite the strong pace of globalisation, the distance effect on trade is persistent or even growing over time (Disdier and Head, 2008). To solve this distance puzzle, we use the recently developed gravity equation estimator from Helpman et al. (2008) (HMR henceforth). Using three different data sets, we find that the distance coefficient increases over time when ordinary least squares (OLS) is used, while the non‐linear estimation of HMR leads to a decline in the distance coefficient over time. The distance puzzle, thus, arises from a growing bias of OLS estimates. The latter is explained by an increase in the importance of the bias from omitting the number of heterogeneous exporting firms relative to the bias from omitting zero trade flows. Furthermore, we show that including zero trade flows cannot solve the distance puzzle when using HMR. The HMR estimates are strongly correlated with the time pattern in freight costs reported by Hummels (2007).     

I'll Have Fries with That: Increasing Choice Complexity Promotes Indulgent Food Choices

Three studies showed that the way that options are presented in a choice set—as combinations of intersecting attributes or in a more sequential “a la carte” choice format—affects the degree to which consumers adhere to their goals in the consumption setting. Specifically, using the context of food consumption and healthy eating, results showed that consumers were more likely to make double indulgent choices, the choice of both an indulgent entrée and an indulgent side item, when choosing from a menu consisting of predetermined “combination meals” than when selecting among the same entrée and side options in an a la carte fashion. Studies 2 and 3 implicated a goal distraction mechanism in driving the effect; the combination format, with its cross‐cutting of product choices into various combinations, reduces the salience of goal‐related constructs on implicit measures. In showing that different product presentation formats can affect the degree to which consumers make goal‐consistent choices, the current work adds to work on the effects of environmental influences on goal progress and goal achievement. Implications for encouraging goal‐consistent behavior in the context of healthy eating as well as other important consumer goal contexts are discussed.     

Global Liquidity and Commodity Prices

While monetary easing and increasing participation of financial institutions in commodity trading have enhanced the financialization of commodity markets, this paper investigates empirically whether the impact of global liquidity on commodity prices has grown since the crisis. For each commodity group, this paper uses a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model to address the short‐run relationship between global liquidity and commodity prices. The key finding is that the effect of global liquidity on commodity prices becomes more salient since the global financial crisis. This paper also suggests a price‐based liquidity indicator has a greater explanatory power for the commodity price dynamics than monetary aggregates.     

Is a Policy of Free Movement of Workers Sustainable?

In this paper, we study the costs and benefits of the adoption of a policy of free movement of workers. For countries to agree on uncontrolled movements of workers, short‐run costs must be outweighed by the long‐term benefits of better labor‐market flexibility and income smoothing. We show that such a policy is less likely to be adopted when workers are more impatient and less risk‐averse, when production technologies display stronger decreasing returns, and when countries trade a significant share of their products.     

The ethical profile of global marketing negotiators

As international trade and business opportunities grow globally, insight into trading partners’ strategies is essential. One of the major strategies that impact trading partners’ relationships is negotiation strategy employed by each partner. These strategies assume even greater importance when these strategies have ethical content. This study examines the effects of marketing executives’ preferred ethical ideologies (relativism and idealism), opportunism and Machiavellianism on their perceived appropriateness of unethical negotiation tactics. Utilizing a sample of 995 marketing executives from six countries, cluster analysis and multivariate analysis of variance revealed two types of marketing negotiators: principled and corrupt negotiators. Corrupt negotiators tend to be more Machiavellian, more relativist, more opportunistic and less idealistic than their principled counterparts. Principled negotiators tend to perceive unethical negotiation tactics less favorably than their corrupt counterparts. Implications of these results for practitioners and directions for future research are discussed.     

Wellness tourism in Sareyn,Iran: resources,planning and development

Health tourism is a broad concept that incorporates both medical and wellness tourism. Sareyn, city of Ardabil province, is one of the largest and the most diverse cities for health tourism. Although health tourism in Iran is in its infancy, it can offer new opportunities, and strengthen the overall competitiveness of Iran's tourism industry. In this paper, by using strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) analysis, the strengths and opportunities for sustainable health tourism are determined. Also, weaknesses and threats are recognized; finally, guidelines for efficiently using the strengths and transforming the weaknesses into opportunities and strengths are presented.     

From Davos,Switzerland to Mombasa,Kenya: a position paper on the adoption of the ‘Davos declaration’ by hotels

Climate change has been identified as a major challenge in the achievement of sustainable development especially for developing countries like Kenya. There has been a wide acknowledgement that there is a need for long-term strategies for the industry players to reduce their contribution to climate change in line with other industries. Industries and societal sectors have sought ways of mitigating the causes of climate change. The Second International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism, held in Davos, Switzerland, on 3 October 2007, provided practical guidelines for the industry in response to climate change. This paper seeks to evaluate the adoption of the ‘Davos Declaration’ among selected Mombasa hotels in terms of water, energy and waste management. Results indicate that despite wide knowledge among hoteliers on the impacts of climate change and the role hotels can play in its mitigation, most hoteliers are slow in adopting the mitigation measures.