The systems analysis of conflict

This article is the outcome of a continuing programme of research involving systems engineers and political scientists. The ultimate aim is to explore the relevance of some of the methodologies of systems engineering to problems in the social sciences, especially the dynamics of domestic and international conflict. An initial exercise in modelling domestic conflict in terms of state equations (system dynamics) is described, although the study reflects the authors' interest in several approaches by the broadly based survey of past work and proposed diversification of their research.     

The geography of tourism: An introduction

The geography of tourism is limited by a dearth of published research in geographic journals, the relatively few individuals who actively participate in the sub-discipline, and the lack of prestige the subject matter specialty has in geography. Despite these imperfections geographers make important contributions to the study of tourism because of their unique point-of-view. This characteristic perspective is seen in the context of a conceptual frame-of-reference which consists of a matrix based on two trichotomies. An analysis and interpretation of this framework and its application to the nine substantive articles included in the special issue constitute a majority of the article.     

Evaluating Statistical Models of Mortgage Lending Discrimination: A Bank-Specific Analysis

We present our efforts to develop bank-specific models to test for the presence of mortgage lending discrimination. We discuss the potential for selection and simultaneity biases and delineate the conditions under which a single-equation model is appropriate. The results from three national banks demonstrate that, by incorporating the specific underwriting guidelines of each bank, our alternative approach significantly improves the ability of the model to explain the outcomes of the mortgage lending decision process when compared to a single generic specification applied across all banks. Our results also demonstrate the difficulties encountered in attempting to incorporate the specifics of a bank's underwriting criteria and the remaining potential for omitted-variables problems.     

New Evidence on the Performance Advantages of Multihospital Systems

This study analyzes the performance effects of proprietary, multihospital systems. It is shown that the organizational structure of these systems may affect the operating costs of member hospitals. Estimating a cost function for Florida hospitals and controlling for other factors, the average costs of HUMANA hospitals are empirically about 17 percent lower, while the costs of other leading chains are about 12 percent lower than not-for-profit institutions. These results contrast with earlier studies that found no such differences. Furthermore, the cost differential that exists between system and non-system hospitals can be largely attributed to technical efficiencies arising from chain ownership.     

Pricing, price dispersion, and information: The discount brokerage industry

The paper provides an empirical analysis of the pricing behavior of firms within the discount brokerage industry, with emphasis on testing the role of costly information in affecting prices. Several empirical tests are performed that indicate that prices in this industry respond in ways hypothesized by theoretical models of markets operating under conditions of imperfect information. The industry is characterized by a wide degree of price dispersion that does not appear to simply reflect quality differences among firms. In addition, the variance of prices across geographic markets is associated with variables that theoretically should affect the levels of consumer information in those markets.     

Managing micropolitical risk: A cross‐sector examination

This article stresses the need for today's multinational firms to adopt their own political risk‐assessment and risk‐mitigation strategies. A comparative study of the energy, financial, and automobile sectors illustrates the need for all companies in these sectors to undertake comprehensive risk‐assessment strategies. Risk‐assessment models established by leading multinationals like British Petroleum, Bank of America, and General Motors are examined as examples that other companies in these sectors can build upon. The consistent micropolitical risk variables then lead to a proposed practical framework for examining sector‐specific micropolitical risk. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

A note on the Wang and Wang measure of the quality of the compass rose

H. Wang and C. Wang [Visibility of the compass rose in financial asset returns: A quantitative study, J. Bank. Financ. 26 (2002), 1099–1111] derive a measure of the visibility of the radial patterns that appear in a plot of current and past returns, which are more commonly known as the compass rose. In theory, this measure should be positively related to the tick/volatility ratio. In practice however, we find that this relationship does not hold for higher tick/volatility ratios that are common to stock market data. Thus, the use of this measure is limited in real world applications. We propose a correction factor that improves the behaviour of the quality measure over higher tick/volatility ratios, however, further research is required to fully identify and correct the problem.     

Conflicting threat perceptions at a rural agricultural fair

Tourism is a major industry in Pennsylvania, second only to agriculture. This paper examines their nexus, the rural agricultural fair. The Bloomsburg Fair provides an opportunity to explore risk management for tourism. This event, now in its 150th year, inundates a town of 12,000 with 500,000+ visitors in an 8-day period. Employing a survey of fairgoer behavior, this study explored contrasts between fairgoer and management concerns over a variety of natural and human-induced threats. It also investigated the challenges present in maintaining a quality recreational experience while simultaneously providing adequate fairgoer protection. The findings indicate that fairgoers place greater emphasis on high-probability, low-consequence events while the fair emergency management plan is largely focused on low-probability, high-consequence events such as terrorism. This disconnect suggests that a failure to understand the concerns of the fairgoer or to recognize other threats facing a destination while focusing heavily on low-probability events may create a recreation environment that is relatively less safe overall.