HOW DID UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY AFFECT ECONOMIC FORECASTS?

We study how unconventional monetary policy announcements affected professional forecasters' predictions of bond rates, gross domestic product growth and inflation using data from the monthly survey by the Wall Street Journal. We find that unconventional monetary policy (UMP) announcements moved predicted bond rates in the direction the Fed intended. UMP announcements had differential impacts on forecasters' predictions; they also tended to move growth and inflation predictions in directions opposite those the Fed intended due to Fed information effects. A policy implication of our study is that the Fed should communicate economic projections to the public separately from monetary policy announcements to mitigate Fed information effects. (JEL E52, E58)     

A time diversification approach to the emerging stock markets of Latin America: Argentina,Brazil, Chile,and Mexico

This article provides the analytical basis for the adoption of a longer view to portfolio diversification in Latin America. The benefits to be gained through time diversification are studied in the context of four countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. The empirical evidence of actual annualized returns indicates that risk in investment in Latin American equity returns tends to diminish over longer term investment horizons.     

The cost of telephone service: An international comparison of rates in major countries

An exhaustive analysis of all 1979 telephone calls in the US Bell System determines market baskets of telephone services consumed by residential subscribers and by business subscribers. Individual calls are classified according to duration, distance, hour and day of week, and type of service. The annual cost of purchasing these market baskets is evaluated using the complete rate structures of nine countries. Telephone service is least expensive in the US and only slightly higher in Canada. Costs in Sweden, the UK and Italy are moderately higher than the USA. The highest rates are found in Japan, the FRG, France and Australia.     

The nature of Japan's comparative advantage, 1965-80

This paper compares the dynamic factor proportions theory to the product cycle theory in explaining Japan's comparative advantage for the 1965-80 period. Three tests were used: (1) domestic Japanese relative prices of more and less competitive export commodities; (2) trends in capital-labour ratios, skill ratios, R&D intensity and product turnover for Japan's manufactured exports; (3) price elasticities over time of Japan's exports. The results suggest that: (1) the product cycle must be considered along with the factor proportions theory for the pre-oil shock period; (2) the product cycle theory is superior for the post-oil shock period.     

Enhancing risk management for an aging world

As the world confronts unprecedented global aging, academics and policymakers are growing increasingly aware of the need for better risk management tools to handle the demographic transition. It is therefore imperative to identify innovative insurance and financial market products that can enrich the range of options for households, firms, and governments facing the challenge of an aging population. After outlining thoughts on how rising longevity might shape financial markets, we discuss opportunities for the finance and insurance industries in this arena. We also highlight how policymakers could respond to improve efforts to better manage risk.     

A theory of factor allocation and plant size

This article develops a theory of how capital, skilled labor, and unskilled labor interact at the plant level. The theory has implications for the relationship between factor allocation and plant size and the effects of trade and growth on the skill premium. The theory is consistent with certain facts about factor allocation and factor price changes in the 19th and 20th centuries.     

Asset divestiture following horizontal acquisitions: a dynamic view

Business acquisition, resource redeployment, and asset divestiture are elements of a dynamic process in which firms change their businesses by recombining internal and external resources. Analyzing 253 horizontal acquisitions, we show that post‐acquisition resource redeployment leads to asset divestiture from the business that receives the redeployed resources, but not from the business that contributes the new resources. Consistent with scale economies rationales, we find that strategic similarity also leads to greater asset divestiture from the target firms. Many theoretical perspectives are skeptical about the positive rationale for acquisitions and many of these believe that asset divestiture is evidence of acquisition failure. Our arguments and analysis help refine the accepted wisdom. In particular, the pattern of resource redeployment and asset divestiture in our analysis suggests that acquisitions provide a means of reconfiguring the structure of resources within firms and that asset divestiture is a logical consequence of this reconfiguration process. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Maintaining a Flexible Payout Policy in a Mature Industry: The Case of Crown Cork and Seal in the Connelly Era

This case study suggests that the payment of cash dividends may not be essential to the long-run success of even mature companies. A mature company in a mature industry, the Crown Cork and Seal Company did not pay any common dividends during John Connelly's 33-year tenure as chairman and CEO. During that period (from 1957 to 1990), the company used stock repurchases along with a compensation policy featuring low executive salaries and generous executive stock options to motivate and execute a focused business strategy. Under the leadership of Connelly, Crown was rescued from what appeared to be certain bankruptcy to become one of the most profitable firms in its industry. Debt was immediately paid down, preferred stock was retired, and the firm's operations were revamped and streamlined. Instead of following the diversification strategies of larger industry peers, Crown's strategy was focused and driven by profit margin and customer service. This strategy eventually led Crown to invest internationally and acquire one of its major rivals. In addition to significant equity ownership by Crown's management and board members, the company's board had a remarkable number of “outsiders” and representatives from international operations, creating a culture that was outward-looking as well as cohesive. And without paying a dollar of dividends—a practice that many finance scholars believe imposes a necessary discipline on mature companies—Crown both preserved its financing flexibility and produced a remarkable record of increases in both profits and market value.