The mean residual of record values at the level of previous records

In the study of reliability of the technical systems, records model plays an important role. Suppose that a technical system is subject to shocks, e.g. peaks of voltages or stresses. The successive large shocks may be viewed as realizations of records from a sequence of identically independent voltages. Assume that the lower limit value of the mth record voltage (stress) is v > 0. Under these conditions, we propose a mean residual of records (MRR’s) for the future records. We study several properties of MRR. We show that the proposed MRR uniquely characterizes the distribution function that generated the sequence of records. It is proved that when the model under study has an increasing hazard rate the corresponding MRR is decreasing. We also compare between two record systems based on their MRR’s when these systems are ordered in terms of their hazard rates.     

Optimal introductory pricing for new financial services

Financial services institutions often provide special introductory prices to new customers who sign up for their services such as credit cards, credit monitoring services and online stock trading. Despite their prevalence, the decision to provide introductory prices to new customers entails challenges for decision makers. Providing small incentives may not perceptibly affect the adoption of the service while providing a large incentive leads to the loss of revenue and profits. As a result, the effectiveness of such activities on firm profitability remains largely unexplored. This study seeks to address this gap in the literature by exploring optimal introductory pricing of a financial service. Employing agent-based simulation experiments, we find that offering introductory discounts significantly increases a firm’s net present value (NPV) of profits. Moreover, the findings suggest the amount of discount and the duration of time that a new customer receives the discount are critical factors in determining the NPV of profits. The research and managerial implications are discussed.     

Application of ANFIS to exchange rate forecasting

The need of exchange rate forecasting in order to preventing its disruptive movements has engrossed many policy-makers and economists for many years. The determinants of exchange rate have grown manifold making its behavior complex, nonlinear and volatile so that nonlinear models have better performance for its forecasting. In this study the accuracy of ANFIS as the nonlinear model and ARIMA as the linear models for forecasting 2, 4 and 8 days ahead of daily Iran Rial/∈ and Rial/US$ was compared. Using forecast evaluation criteria we found that nonlinear model outperforms linear model in all three horizons.     

A comparative performance of conventional and Islamic unit trusts: Market timing and persistence evidence

It is expected that the returns and resistance of Islamic mutual funds will be different from conventional mutual funds as the former have limited choices for portfolio diversification. This article analyses the performance of conventional and Islamic unit trusts for the period February 1995 to July 2012 in the Malaysian market, one of the most developed Islamic mutual fund markets. The performance analysis is based on four parameters: (i) risk-adjusted returns of unit trusts; (ii) market timing abilities; (iii) selection performance; and (iv) persistence. The results of this study suggest that the returns of both conventional and Islamic unit trusts have outperformed the market throughout the sample period. The results for market timing and selectivity are mostly the same for both categories of funds. However, Islamic unit trusts seem to have better resistance to market downturn than conventional unit trusts. The results of this research can be used by investors to identify funds or create portfolios that are more suitable for a recessionary scenario and for fund managers to better manage their portfolio performance during times when markets are likely to fall. The findings in this article are highly relevant for policymakers, investors and fund managers to determine policy matters, deciding on investment and marketing strategy for Islamic mutual funds.     

Dynamic linkages among equity markets in the Middle East and North African countries

The relaxation of security laws and regulations in emerging markets in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) provides abundant opportunities for foreign investors. These markets exhibit high-expected returns and substantial volatility. In this paper, we investigate the lead/lag relationship between the MENA countries and regions. We find no market causality or spillover from one country to another in the North Africa region. Our results for the Levant region reveal that there are linkages between stock markets in this region. The results for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region show that there is more interaction and linkage in the GCC region than in the North Africa and Levant regions. An unexpected result is that UAE's stock market leads all the markets in this region. Finally, we investigate linkages among the three regions. We find that GCC influences the other two regions.     

An Investigation of the Association between Cultural Dimensions and Variations in Perceived Use of and Compliance with Internal Auditing Standards in 19 Countries

Using a large sample of chief audit executives and internal audit managers from 19 countries, we investigate potential associations between cultural dimensions and variations in perceived use/compliance with the internal auditing standards. We find uncertainty avoidance to be inversely related to both use and compliance. We also find assertiveness and human orientation to be positively related to compliance but not to use of Standards. Among control variables, we find positive associations for the length of Institute of Internal Auditors (IIA) membership, professional certification in internal auditing, and hours of continuing professional education (CPE) training on both perceived use and compliance. Finally, we find “Cost of compliance” and “Compliance not expected in my country” to be inversely related to perceived use/compliance. Implications of these findings are discussed.