Comparative performances of measures of consumer and economic sentiment in forecasting consumption: a multi-country analysis

ABSTRACT

This paper seeks to compare the capabilities of assorted measures of consumer and economic sentiment in predicting the growth of household expenditure. An analysis of quarterly data on five European countries shows that for none of these can the model which incorporates the EU’s headline consumer confidence indicator be deemed to be significantly inferior to any of its seven rivals. However, the rankings of the sentiment variables are seen to be influenced by: the proportion of total spending by households that is devoted to durable goods; and the nature of the behaviour of consumption over the forecast interval.     

How successfully China has applied the OECD principles of corporate governance: a critical assessment

This paper attempts to critically analyze how successful China has been in applying the OECD principles of corporate governance. In doing so, assessment has been made in light of the six core issues of the OECD principles. A satisfactory level of progress has been noted in China’s legal and regulatory framework since the 1990s. New laws, regulations, and rules have been enacted, existing ones have been amended, and all the required institutions have been built accordingly in order to ensure good corporate governance practices in the country. However, there are still bottlenecks in terms of the enforcement of these laws, regulations, and rules mainly due to the various structural limitations in the Chinese administration and judiciary. The paper argues that China should now move forward with an accelerated enforcement agenda in the area of corporate governance in order to make China Inc. more competitive and sustainable.     

Injuries and their burden in insured construction workers in Iran, 2012

The present study used disability adjusted life years (DALY) to estimate the burden of external cause of injuries in construction workers insured in Iran in 2012. The Global Burden of Disease method (2010) was used to estimate the years of life lost due to death (YLL) and years of life lost due to disability (YLD). DALY was calculated as the sum of YLL and YLD. There were 5352 injured construction workers in Iran (11.25 individuals per 1000). Falling was the most common incidence and included 2490 individuals (46.53%). Totally, DALY was estimated 18,557 years for all age groups and both genders including 17,821 YLD (96%) and 736 YLL (4%). The DALY related to construction work is high in Iran and it has notably affected the young. Hence more preventive methods should be applied to reduce the overall burden of specific external cause of injuries especially in young and inexperienced workers.     

Good governance,innovation, economic growth and the stock market turnover rate

This study is primarily aimed at testing the theory of good governance in the group of eight developing Islamic countries. Using a panel data regression model, we examined the data to determine the relationship between political economy and economic development of eight countries, for the period 2005 to 2014. The results show a significant positive correlation between the rule of law, corruption control with economic growth and stock market turnover rate proxy. The examination through an artificial neural network resulted in a higher determination coefficient and less average standard error. This, in turn, reveals that the fitting power and efficiency of this method is higher than the panel data regression model. Furthermore, the findings of this study suggest that the application of good governance theory calls for more inquiry.     

Home-related injuries among under-five-year children and mothers' care regarding injury prevention in rural areas

This cross-sectional study was conducted in rural areas of Twiserkan (Toyserkan) County, in Iran, to assess factors associated with home-related injuries among under-five-year children and their mothers’ care regarding injury prevention. Mothers who had their under-five-year-old children injured within a 12-month period were identified from recorded information in Twiserkan Health Center. Then, data were gathered using pre-tested questionnaire and through interview with injured children's mothers. The questions were about characteristics of the children's injuries and their mothers’ care regarding injury prevention, using PRECEDE (Predisposing, Reinforcing, and Enabling Constructs in Educational/Environmental Diagnosis and Evaluation) model with focus on knowledge and attitude; enabling and reinforcing factors; and mothers' preventive behaviours. The study results showed that 197 out of 210 total identified mothers took part in the study. The reported injuries were 11.68%, 39.09%, and 49.24%, respectively, for severe, moderate, and mild cases. Fall was the most frequent injury with 35%. Among PRECEDE model constructs, there was a statistically significant correlation between mothers' knowledge and injury severity among children. Home-related injuries are an important health problem among study population and their prediction and prevention are necessary. Enhancement of mothers’ knowledge can be helpful to improve child injury prevention.     

A comparative performance of conventional and Islamic unit trusts: Market timing and persistence evidence

It is expected that the returns and resistance of Islamic mutual funds will be different from conventional mutual funds as the former have limited choices for portfolio diversification. This article analyses the performance of conventional and Islamic unit trusts for the period February 1995 to July 2012 in the Malaysian market, one of the most developed Islamic mutual fund markets. The performance analysis is based on four parameters: (i) risk-adjusted returns of unit trusts; (ii) market timing abilities; (iii) selection performance; and (iv) persistence. The results of this study suggest that the returns of both conventional and Islamic unit trusts have outperformed the market throughout the sample period. The results for market timing and selectivity are mostly the same for both categories of funds. However, Islamic unit trusts seem to have better resistance to market downturn than conventional unit trusts. The results of this research can be used by investors to identify funds or create portfolios that are more suitable for a recessionary scenario and for fund managers to better manage their portfolio performance during times when markets are likely to fall. The findings in this article are highly relevant for policymakers, investors and fund managers to determine policy matters, deciding on investment and marketing strategy for Islamic mutual funds.     

The Influence of Board Composition on Sustainable Development Disclosure

Despite knowing the potential effect of social reporting on firms' continuity, there is limited research into the influence of the composition of boards of directors on CSR disclosure. This paper adds to the emerging CSR literature empirical evidence by examining how board composition relates to a firm's social and environmental disclosure as well as the implementation of social policies. Using a sample of FTSE 350 firms for the period 2007–2012, the results show that higher board independence facilitates the conveying of firms' good citizenship image through enhancing societal conscience. The results also show that female participation on boards is favorably affecting CSR engagement and reporting as well as the establishment of ethical policies. Hence, the research suggests that boards with higher female participation and independence boost the legitimacy of CSR reporting. Board gender diversity and independence facilitates directing part of the firm's scarce resources toward value maximizing social projects and subsequent reporting on these. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

Impact of Financial Development on the Environmental Quality in Iran

In recent decades, undesirable environmental changes, such as global warming and greenhouse gases emission, have raised worldwide concerns. In order to achieve higher growth rate, environmental problems emerged from economic activities have turned into a controversial issue. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of financial development on environmental quality in Iran. For this purpose, the statistical data over the period from 1970 to 2011 were used. Also by using the Auto Regression Model Distributed Lag （ARDL）, short-term and long-term relationships among the variables of model were estimated and analyzed. The results show that financial development accelerates the degradation of the environment; however, the increase in trade openness reduces the damage to environment in Iran. Error correction coefficient shows that in each period, 53% of imbalances would be justified and will approach their long-run procedure. Structural stability tests show that the estimated coefficients were stable over the period.     

The pre-acquisition evaluation of target firms and cross border acquisition performance

The paper investigates the impact of the pre-acquisition evaluation of target firms on the performance of cross border acquisitions using data from a sample of acquisitions made by UK firms. The findings provide reasonable support for organizational learning theory, suggesting that the more the acquiring firm learns about the target firm then the better will be the acquisition performance. Specifically, we find support for the hypothesis that thorough evaluation of the strategic and cultural fit positively influences cross border acquisition success. Further, the analysis reveals that detailed evaluation of the target firm's employee and business capability improves acquisition performance. The managerial implications of the findings and directions for future research are also discussed.     

How Effective Is Foreign Aid at Improving Health Outcomes in Recipient Countries?

Since the United Nations’ establishment of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in 2000 the world has observed an increasing trend in foreign aid provided by more affluent countries to developing nations. This paper examined whether foreign aid (total foreign aid and health sector aid) has been effective in improving the health of citizens in recipient nations since establishment of the MDGs. Five facets of population health were examined: infant mortality, life expectancy, the annual death rate, and immunizations against measles and diphtheria. Using a panel data set covering 90 developing countries, observed annually over 2001–2015, fixed-effects multivariate regressions with alternative specifications were estimated for each of these measures. The findings reveal that foreign aid has had little to no effect on population health since 2000. We found some evidence that foreign aid has improved life expectancy in developing countries, however, the effect is very small. In light of these findings, continued monitoring of the relationship between foreign aid and health outcomes would be both valuable and prudent.