浅谈集邮业务的个性化服务

文章回顾了我国集邮业务的历史演变和发展状况,分析了集邮业务的业务结构变化及其所带来的经营方式和经营策略的变化,提出个性化服务是集邮业务的发展方向,论述了个性化服务的社会需求、市场前景和发展空间,探讨了个性化服务的发展措施及经营思路。     

Market liquidity, asset prices, and welfare

This paper represents an equilibrium model for the demand and supply of liquidity and its impact on asset prices and welfare. We show that, when constant market presence is costly, purely idiosyncratic shocks lead to endogenous demand of liquidity and large price deviations from fundamentals. Moreover, market forces fail to lead to efficient supply of liquidity, which calls for potential policy interventions. However, we demonstrate that different policy tools can yield different efficiency consequences. For example, lowering the cost of supplying liquidity on the spot (e.g., through direct injection of liquidity or relaxation of ex post margin constraints) can decrease welfare while forcing more liquidity supply (e.g., through coordination of market participants) can improve welfare.     

海南新政策与商业银行的机遇及策略研究

《国务院关于推进海南国际旅游岛建设的若干意见》为海南经济发展提供了强大的推动力,给商业银行传统业务拓展和创新业务探索带来新的契机,也给商业银行区域业务的可持续发展注入新活力。秉承收益与风险并重的原则,积极主动地在海南拓展市场与业务,深谋策略,远虑风险,应是我国商业银行的理性选择。     

An Optimal Product Mix for Hedging Longevity Risk in Life Insurance Companies: The Immunization Theory Approach

This article investigates the natural hedging strategy to deal with longevity risks for life insurance companies. We propose an immunization model that incorporates a stochastic mortality dynamic to calculate the optimal life insurance–annuity product mix ratio to hedge against longevity risks. We model the dynamic of the changes in future mortality using the well‐known Lee–Carter model and discuss the model risk issue by comparing the results between the Lee–Carter and Cairns–Blake–Dowd models. On the basis of the mortality experience and insurance products in the United States, we demonstrate that the proposed model can lead to an optimal product mix and effectively reduce longevity risks for life insurance companies.     

市场估值与价值投资策略——基于中国证券市场的经验研究

中国股票市场近年开始重新重视价值投资,但真正能运用价值投资策略进行投资的并不多见。本文研究在我国的证券市场中,价值投资是否适用和有效,通过实证分析的方法,检验价值投资策略在中国证券市场的适应性。本文的结论有助于逐渐改变目前中国证券市场上中小投资者跟风炒作、希望在短期内获得高额回报的投机理念和过度炒作的现象,对于提倡理性投资,抑制过度投机是非常有益的。     

Comparing Firm Failure Predictions Between Logit,KMV, and ZPP Models: Evidence from Taiwan’s Electronics Industry

This paper applies the Taiwan electronics industry data to detect the discriminatory powers of Logit, KMV, and zero-price probability (ZPP) models that represent respectively the regressive fitting model, the option-based pricing model, and the GARCH time series simulation model. In our circumstances, according to cumulative accuracy profile, receiver operating characteristic, and even Brier score, the KMV performs the worst. The disadvantages for KMV are that the equity market exists some nonlinear characteristics, the unknown market value of asset affected by the change of capital structure is not exogenous, and the failure point is difficult to be estimated correctly. Besides, KMV is however too simple to model the fluctuation of the equity value as the GARCH does. On the other hand, the Logit performs above average. To preclude over-fitting and keep model parsimonious, two significant factors are extracted from as many as forty financial variables for the logistic regression on binary failure data. The result of Logit training has perfect discrimination. However, for the post-sample data, the fitting to categorical but not ordinal data makes Logit have the divergent failure predicted probabilities and highest Briser Score. In practical, ZPP GARCHNorm uses just equity value to predict firm failure but it performs remarkably well supposing that downward price trend or volatility persistence in stock price changes is appropriately caught. It implies that the distorted signals such as overreaction of traders and insider trading would definitely impair the ZPP GARCHNorm. Nevertheless, the larger type I error than type II error in all models indicates that the prediction of non-failed firms should be more examined further than that of failed firms.     

Joint estimation of technical efficiency and production risk for multi-output banks under a panel data cost frontier model

This article generalizes production risk from a single output production function to a multiple output cost frontier, which is able to examine input-oriented technical efficiencies and production risk simultaneously in the context of a panel data. Furthermore, the joint confidence interval estimates for technical efficiencies are constructed by means of multiple comparisons with the best approach. Whether taking production risk into account or not offers quite dissimilar implications in terms of the average technical efficiency measure and the identification of multiple efficient banks achieving the optimal cost frontier. It is suggested that inferences drawn on the basis of the confidence intervals of technical efficiency provide much more fruitful and insightful information than the point estimation alone. Bank specific risk parameters are found to be highly and positively correlated with fixed-effect estimates, implying that the more risk-averse a bank is, the more technically efficient it will be.

The effect of participative management on organizational performance: the case of Taiwan

The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of participative management on the behaviour of employees and the financial effectiveness of the enterprise. The analytical data are based on the survey of 308 Taiwan enterprises. Multiple regression results show that both suggestion system and labour-management committee have a positive impact on employees' behaviour in terms of turnover and absenteeism rates. Likewise, the quality control circle (QCC) and profit sharing have a positive impact on organizational effectiveness as seen in profit and revenue growth rates. However, employee stock-ownership plans and grievance-handling systems have negative effects on both performance indicators - employee behaviour and organizational effectiveness. The practical implications are also discussed.     

浅议我国资产评估管理体制的重构

20世纪80年代末,随着国有企业的重组改制、产权交易和中外合资、合作等经济活动的不断增多,资产评估作为为产权交易、合资合作等经济活动提供价值咨询服务的社会中介行业便应运而生.十多年来,资产评估积极参与改革,服务改革,已成为我国经济建设中不可或缺的公证性社会中介服务行业.随着我国加入WTO,我国资产评估行业既面临着前所未有的发展机遇,同时也承受着巨大的挑战,在评估理论上有很多问题需要深入研究,在评估实践操作上还亟待总结规范,尤其是评估管理体制更是存在着许多错综复杂的问题需要解决.     

Enhancing adaptive transfer of cross-cultural training: Lessons learned from the broader training literature

Drawing insights from the broader training literature, we argue that evaluation of cross-cultural training effectiveness should adopt comprehensive criteria, including cognitive, skill-based, and affective learning outcomes as well as adaptive transfer. We propose that the integration of an error management supplement in cross-cultural training can enhance trainee acquisition of self-regulation skills and self-efficacy that facilitate adaptive application of learning to novel cultural situations. In addition to the traditional error management training designs (i.e., positive error framing), the current paper describes additional design elements to promote acquisition of cognitive strategies, prevent premature automaticity, alleviate concerns about error occurrence during learning, and enhance readiness to transfer. In addition, we offer propositions regarding the effects of the supplement on learning and transfer outcomes, along with implications for future research and practice on cross-cultural training.