Estimating the time involved in managing the 'unoccupied bed:' a time and motion study

Occupied bed days are often used as a demand indicator when calculating the number of nurses required to provide safe care. However, such calculations fail to take into account the amount of nursing time consumed by the "unoccupied bed." This study used direct observation time-and-motion methods to estimate the time and costs associated with a bed that is unoccupied. The average time taken to complete all of the activities associated with a bed that was unoccupied due to an internal transfer was 8.65 minutes, for a patient discharge 26.27 minutes, and for a patient admission 37.7 minutes. An average daily cost for activities surrounding these patient movements was approximately $386/day (AUD) in registered/enrolled nursing salaries alone. The unoccupied bed is not resource neutral and time associated with its maintenance should be considered when calculating nursing requirements to provide safe care.     

An application of rule-based forecasting to a situation lacking domain knowledge

Rule-based forecasting (RBF) uses rules to combine forecasts from simple extrapolation methods. Weights for combining the rules use statistical and domain-based features of time series. RBF was originally developed, tested, and validated only on annual data. For the M3-Competition, three major modifications were made to RBF. First, due to the absence of much in the way of domain knowledge, we prepared the forecasts under the assumption that no domain knowledge was available. This removes what we believe is one of RBF’s primary advantages. We had to re-calibrate some of the rules relating to causal forces to allow for this lack of domain knowledge. Second, automatic identification procedures were used for six time-series features that had previously been identified using judgment. This was done to reduce cost and improve reliability. Third, we simplified the rule-base by removing one method from the four that were used in the original implementation. Although this resulted in some loss in accuracy, it reduced the number of rules in the rule-base from 99 to 64. This version of RBF still benefits from the use of prior findings on extrapolation, so we expected that it would be substantially more accurate than the random walk and somewhat more accurate than equal weights combining. Because most of the previous work on RBF was done using annual data, we especially expected it to perform well with annual data.     

CUSTOMER‐OWNED BANKING IN AUSTRALIA: FROM CREDIT UNION TO MUTUAL BANK

Since the 1990s financial sector regulation in Australia has treated credit unions and building societies the same as banks under the designated title of authorized depository institutions. This allows credit unions to choose between different organizational structures: cooperative; convert to customer‐owned banks or to demutualize. This article utilizes semi‐structured interviews to analyse the key motivations for organizational change. It examines a number of credit unions and their conversion experience to customer‐owned banks. It finds that adaptation of the credit union model was necessary to change customer perceptions, ensure future growth in the customer base and assets, and facilitate access to capital raisings with the credit rating of a bank. Despite this change customer‐owned banks retain the core principals of mutuality.     

Marginal places and tourism: the role of Buddhist centers in Italy

Religious tourism in Italy has always been an attractor at an international level. For many centuries, it has been entirely represented by the Christian pilgrimage to St. Peter’s Basilica. In recent decades, however, the religious scenery has changed deeply, and now includes even non-Christian religions and spiritualities. In this paper we compare two (very different) Buddhist centers, both located in places of Italy where tourism is not (or is no more) a significant component of the local economy. Buddhist centers are increasingly becoming popular tourist attraction: our purpose is to investigate to what extent and under which conditions they can be actors of local tourism development. The most significant of these conditions seems to be the nature of the center itself, ranging from a hermitage relatively unconcerned about any quantitative development, to a structure where spiritual ends are reconciled both with expansion and with economic integration within the local community.     

Fortune 500 manufacturer web sites: Innovative marketing strategies or cyberbrochures?

Forecasts for business-to-business electronic commerce over the next few years are in the trillions. Manufacturers represent a significant portion of business-to-business activity and their web sites an integral component of business-to-business electronic commerce. Should they choose to, manufacturers can use their web sites not only to conduct electronic commerce but also to engage in a wide range of marketing communications. Marketing communication activities include advertising, sales promotion, public relations, and direct marketing. The results of our content analysis of 188 Fortune 500 manufacturer web sites indicated that few manufacturers use a broad range of marketing communications activities. Analysis of differences in the use of marketing communications on web sites suggests that some aspects of web site marketing communications differ based on manufacturer characteristics such as sales, R&D to sales ratio, and net income.     

Time-varying combinations of predictive densities using nonlinear filtering

We propose a Bayesian combination approach for multivariate predictive densities which relies upon a distributional state space representation of the combination weights. Several specifications of multivariate time-varying weights are introduced with a particular focus on weight dynamics driven by the past performance of the predictive densities and the use of learning mechanisms. In the proposed approach the model set can be incomplete, meaning that all models can be individually misspecified. A Sequential Monte Carlo method is proposed to approximate the filtering and predictive densities. The combination approach is assessed using statistical and utility-based performance measures for evaluating density forecasts of simulated data, US macroeconomic time series and surveys of stock market prices. Simulation results indicate that, for a set of linear autoregressive models, the combination strategy is successful in selecting, with probability close to one, the true model when the model set is complete and it is able to detect parameter instability when the model set includes the true model that has generated subsamples of data. Also, substantial uncertainty appears in the weights when predictors are similar; residual uncertainty reduces when the model set is complete; and learning reduces this uncertainty. For the macro series we find that incompleteness of the models is relatively large in the 1970’s, the beginning of the 1980’s and during the recent financial crisis, and lower during the Great Moderation; the predicted probabilities of recession accurately compare with the NBER business cycle dating; model weights have substantial uncertainty attached. With respect to returns of the S&P 500 series, we find that an investment strategy using a combination of predictions from professional forecasters and from a white noise model puts more weight on the white noise model in the beginning of the 1990’s and switches to giving more weight to the professional forecasts over time. Information on the complete predictive distribution and not just on some moments turns out to be very important, above all during turbulent times such as the recent financial crisis. More generally, the proposed distributional state space representation offers great flexibility in combining densities.     

Is social protection a necessity or a luxury good? New multivariate cointegration panel data results

The aim of this paper is to test the claim that social protection is a luxury good. Therefore, GDP elasticity of selected social protection expenditure is estimated using a new econometric approach developed first by Kao and Chiang (Advances in Econometrics, 15, 179–222, 2000). Time series properties of selected social expenditure in 18 OECD countries from 1981 to 1998 are examined. Using panel data cointegration tests and OLS, FMOLS and DOLS estimators, results were found which differ from previous analyses reporting substantially higher income elasticities. With the FMOLS, selected social expenditure has income elasticities smaller than one but greater than one with the DOLS. It is noteworthy that whether selected social expenditure is stationary or nonstationary may have critical implications for researchers and policy makers desiring to model and explain the impact of this expenditure on a country economic system.     

Do rainfall conditions push or pull rural migrants: evidence from Malawi

This article uses nationally representative data from Malawi's 2004/05 Integrated Household Survey (IHS2) to examine whether rainfall conditions influence a rural worker's decision to make a long‐term move to an urban or another rural area. Results of a Full Information Maximum Likelihood regression model reveal that (1) rainfall shocks have a negative association with rural out‐migration, (2) migrants choose to move to communities where rainfall variability and drought probability are lower, and (3) rainfall shocks have larger negative effects on the consumption of recent migrants than on the consumption of long‐time residents.     

A family portrait of Canada's most successful female entrepreneurs

In an attempt to study the factors contributing to the decision to become an entrepreneur, an intensive interview survey of 36 successful women entrepreneurs was conducted. The importance of paternal occupation and psychodynamic interactions with both the mother and father was highlighted. The study revealed mirror images of the patterns found to be correlated with male entrepreneurship.Dr. Belcourt is an Associate Professor, Atkinson College, York University. Formerly, she held positions at Concordia University and Universite du Quebec a Montreal. Prior to her university career, she was Manager, Personnel, CP Rail, and held various management positions with the Federal Government.