Slow adjustment to shocks or true hysteresis?

In Western Europe in the last two decades the unemployment rate has increased during cyclical downturns only to persist at or around the higher level in the following phase of economic recovery. One of the most notable exceptions to this pattern of unemployment persistence, often termed hysteresis, is the United States. The following article examines the empirical evidence and the possible theoretical explanations for this difference.     

Boundedly complete families which are not complete

Summary Completeness of a family of probability distributions implies its bounded completeness but not conversely. An example of a family which is boundedly complete but not complete was presented by Lehmann and Scheffe [5]. This appears to be the only such example quoted in the statistical literature. The purpose of this note is to provide further examples of this type. It is shown that any given family of power series distributions can be used to construct a class containing infinitely many boundedly complete, but not complete, families. Furthermore, it is shown that the family of continuous distributions , is boundedly complete, but not complete, whereU denotes the uniform distribution on [a, b] and {P _ϑ,ϑ ∈ IR}, is a translation family generated by a distributionP ₀ with mean value zero, which is continuous with respect to the Lebesgue measure.     

The excess burden of the tax and social premium system for Dutch married women

Summary The excess burden of a tax is the diminution of utility above that which would have occurred had the tax been collected as a lump sum. Computing the excess burden for the 1983 and 1985 Dutch tax and social premium system enables a partial welfare evaluation of the recent changes in the system, the so-called Tweeverdienersmaatregelen. Based on the equivalent and compensating variation, the excess burden as a percentage of the taxes and social premiums for the 1983 and 1985 system are valued at 27010 and 84010, and 37010 and 58010 respectively. This result indicates that, welfare-theoretically, the old system seems preferable to the new one.The author wishes to thank Hans Doodeman, Paul Renaud and Jacques Siegers for their critical remarks on an earlier version of this article.     

Projecting the future size and health status of the U.S. elderly population

"A projection model based on a multivariate continuous state, stochastic process is presented. The model allows multiple time-varying covariates to be used so parameters can be estimated from time series information on health changes and mortality, and their interaction. Health changes are simulated by altering parameters controlling the age trajectory and diffusion of risk factor means, variances, and covariances....By increasing the information used in projections it may be possible to better (a) anticipate the state of health at extreme ages, (b) forecast changes in health at specific ages over time, (c) stimulate the effects of specific interventions, and (d) determine the sensitivity of outcomes to a range of interventions."     

Couple's literacy level and acceptance of family planning methods: Lorenz curve analysis

The authors study the acceptance of family planning methods according to the level of couple's literacy in 14 states in India during 1986-87, using the Lorenz curve. The Gini Concentration Ratio and Index of Dissimilarity were calculated by level of couple's literacy for vasectomy, tubectomy, IUD, and all method combined. Firstly, analysis found literates to have accepted vasectomy and IUD more than tubectomy. Secondly, among the 3 methods, a high Gini Concentration Ratio was found for vasectomy when the wife was literate. Moreover, when the wife was literate, the Gini Concentration Ratio of IUD acceptance was higher than the acceptance of IUD by the wife whose husband was literate. Thirdly, the same trend was observed when the husband was illiterate. It is therefore clear that the level of a woman's literacy is a key factor in securing the acceptance of male or female methods of family planning. Planners should therefore concentrate on literacy programs for females independently of their age. Increasing the level of female literacy may ultimately help improve the understanding of family planning methods, while these women may also motivate their husbands to undergo vasectomy which will ultimately foster the success of the family planning program.     

The efficiency of decomposition vs direct solution with implications for the question of decentralized or centralized planning

Conclusion The investigation provides overwhelming evidence that decomposition tends to become increasingly more efficient than direct solution as the number of subproblems becomes greater.Further investigation would be required to obtain a comparable picture of the behaviour of decomposition with respect to an increasing number of variables in the master problem as their range of variation in the present study is rather restricted.It is gratefully acknowledged: that in implementing the decompositional procedure on the computer I have benefitted from Mr. A. C. McKay's advice on matters relating to the computer programmes; also that I enjoyed the pleasant and friendly co-operation of the staff of the computer Centre, University of Birmingham, without which the difficulties involved in carrying out the present task would have been compounded manifold; that Dr. C.-L. Sandblom carefully studied this paper and suggested a number of valuable improvements. Finally, I should like to thank Professor Kronsjö for the encouragement that he has given to me in executing this project and to the research council which made this investigation possible.     

Ein verallgemeinerter Geburten- und Todesprozeß zur Erklärung der Entwicklung des deutschen Volkseinkommens, 1851–1939

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