Regulations for the Eighth International Congress of Actuaries

Abstract

The present paper proposes and investigates a procedure for numerical evaluation of the transition probabilities for a time-inhomogeneous Markov process when the intensities are known (estimated). The procedure is based on Taylor-expansion of the transition probabilities linked with the Chapman-Kolmogorov equations.     

Cognitive,Emotional, and Sociocultural Processes in Consumption

This article examines deliberative, emotional, and sociocultural processes in consumption. The authors draw upon basic processes from two leading theories in social psychology, the theory of planned behavior (TPB) and the model of goal‐directed behavior (MGB), to develop a comprehensive approach to decision making more appropriate for many consumption decisions, and revise the representation and modeling of key variables to better reflect how social psychological processes relate to consumer behavior. A survey was conducted among real adult consumers of bacalhau in Portugal. Because it is most common for women to prepare bacalhau meals in Portugal, 153 female participants were recruited for this survey. The results show that the TPB, and especially the MGB, are found to explain food consumption decisions well but only after the approaches are modified in form and content to accommodate the complex emotional and social aspects of the consumption context. The results also show that the effects of key determinants of desire in the MGB are contingent on the traits of food involvement and cultural orientation (i.e., degree of vertical individualism). The approach taken herein overcomes limitations of existing theories by synthesizing relevant processes across two leading theories and by introducing new variables and processes, thereby showing that the organization of these processes and their contingency on cultural variables regulate consumption.     

The innovation value chain

The challenges of coming up with fresh ideas and realizing profits from them are different for every company. One firm may excel at finding good ideas but may have weak systems for bringing them to market. Another organization may have a terrific process for funding and rolling out new products and services but a shortage of concepts to develop. In this article, Hansen and Birkinshaw caution executives against using the latest and greatest innovation approaches and tools without understanding the unique deficiencies in their companies' innovation systems. They offer a framework for evaluating innovation performance: the innovation value chain. It comprises the three main phases of innovation (idea generation, conversion, and diffusion) as well as the critical activities performed during those phases (looking for ideas inside your unit; looking for them in other units; looking for them externally; selecting ideas; funding them; and promoting and spreading ideas companywide). Using this framework, managers get an end-to-end view of their innovation efforts. They can pinpoint their weakest links and tailor innovation best practices appropriately to strengthen those links. Companies typically succumb to one of three broad "weakest-link" scenarios. They are idea poor, conversion poor, or diffusion poor. The article looks at the ways smart companies - including Intuit, P&G, Sara Lee, Shell, and Siemens- modify the best innovation practices and apply them to address those organizations' individual needs and flaws. The authors warn that adopting the chain-based view of innovation requires new measures of what can be delivered by each link in the chain. The approach also entails new roles for employees "external scouts" and "internal evangelists," for example. Indeed, in their search for new hires, companies should seek out those candidates who can help address particular weaknesses in the innovation value chain.     

Determining the cointegrating rank in nonstationary fractional systems by the exact local Whittle approach

We propose to extend the cointegration rank determination procedure of Robinson and Yajima [2002. Determination of cointegrating rank in fractional systems. Journal of Econometrics 106, 217–242] to accommodate both (asymptotically) stationary and nonstationary fractionally integrated processes as the common stochastic trends and cointegrating errors by applying the exact local Whittle analysis of Shimotsu and Phillips [2005. Exact local Whittle estimation of fractional integration. Annals of Statistics 33, 1890–1933]. The proposed method estimates the cointegrating rank by examining the rank of the spectral density matrix of the d$d$th differenced process around the origin, where the fractional integration order, d$d$, is estimated by the exact local Whittle estimator. Similar to other semiparametric methods, the approach advocated here only requires information about the behavior of the spectral density matrix around the origin, but it relies on a choice of (multiple) bandwidth(s) and threshold parameters. It does not require estimating the cointegrating vector(s) and is easier to implement than regression-based approaches, but it only provides a consistent estimate of the cointegration rank, and formal tests of the cointegration rank or levels of confidence are not available except for the special case of no cointegration. We apply the proposed methodology to the analysis of exchange rate dynamics among a system of seven exchange rates. Contrary to both fractional and integer-based parametric approaches, which indicate at most one cointegrating relation, our results suggest three or possibly four cointegrating relations in the data.     

Taxes,Tuition Fees,and Education for Pleasure

The fact that education provides both a productive and a consumptive (nonproductive) return has important and, in some cases, dramatic implications for optimal taxes and tuition fees. Using a simple model, we show that when the consumption share in education is endogenous and tuition fees are unconstrained, the optimal tax/fee system involves regressive income taxes and high tuition fees. A progressive labor income tax system may, on the other hand, be a second‐best response to politically constrained, low tuition fees. Finally, the existence of individuals with different abilities will also move the optimal income tax system toward progressivity.     

Reflections on the ontological status of risk

In this article we discuss the concept of risk in an ontological perspective. Risk per se is not a self-explaining concept that ‘exists’ by its own virtue. Our discussion is therefore based on existing methodologies and epistemological claims concerning risk. With these claims as our point of departure, we examine risk in relation to the concept of time, state of affairs (the state of the world) and events and discuss relations and constitutional issues for the risk concept. Drawing on a relation between time and state of affairs, we argue that risk is rooted in the transition from the future to the present. Risk is being constituted by the transition from a myriad of future possibilities into one present reality (one actual contingent world). This implies that risk is not ontologically something of the future, but rather something of the present. However, we argue that risk does not exist in any ontological sense. What actually exist are possible (future) states of affairs and these may or may not be interpreted to hold risk. An implication of this is that all risk claims are subjective.     

An investigation of cultural cohesion in a community bank

This study examines the culture of a medium-sized community bank based in the Western United States. The study aims to identify the organization's culture and then measure the level of cultural cohesion that exists three years after a major cultural campaign was launched. The cultural characteristics the organization valued most highly were integrity, willingness to serve the customer and teamwork - all components of the official bank document on culture. Interestingly, the analysis uncovered some significant value differences among different employee groups and also employees and management; differences which can affect firm performance levels. The analysis also revealed that changing the culture in an organization does not necessarily lead to cultural cohesion.     

Deep habits and the dynamic effects of monetary policy shocks

We introduce deep habits into a sticky-price sticky-wage economy and examine the resulting models ability to account for the impact of monetary policy shocks. The deep habits mechanism gives rise to countercyclical markup movements even when prices are flexible and interacts with nominal rigidities in interesting ways. Key parameters are estimated using a limited information approach. The deep habits model can account very precisely for the persistent impact of monetary policy shocks on aggregate consumption and for both the price puzzle and inflation persistence. A key insight is that the deep habits mechanism and nominal rigidities are complementary: the deep habits model can account for the dynamic effects of monetary policy shock at low to moderate levels of nominal rigidities. The results are shown to be stable over time and not caused by monetary policy changes.     

The Path to Service Encounter Performance in Public and Private ‘Bureaucracies’

This article examines the evolution of building societies against a background of environmental change. By the application of specific analytical measures developed by Ansoff five distinct periods of change can be isolated. Key events in the environment have become progressively more novel, less predictable and costlier to deal with, which, in turn, has necessitated both operational and strategic redirection.     

Investigating CSR communication in SMEs: a case study among Danish middle managers

This paper seeks to analyse small‐ and medium‐sized enterprise (SME) managers' representations of corporate social responsibility (CSR) and CSR communication in a corporate communication perspective. The basic question is: how strategic is CSR communication in SMEs? Corporate communication and CSR theories are used to establish an ideal typology of CSR concepts informing an analysis of qualitative data in the form of interviews with three middle managers in two Danish SMEs. A CSR communication model published earlier by the authors is challenged from a SME perspective. Results from an Internet‐based questionnaire survey of 1071 SMEs pave the way for the analysis. Our analysis shows that SME managers clearly have an inside‐out approach to CSR, with a strong emphasis on the internal (corporate culture) dimension. However, SMEs and/or SME managers tend not to communicate externally about the CSR activities of the company. Based on these findings, the paper argues that CSR communication in SMEs is challenged by the global economy and is under revision. The contribution of the paper is to provide an insight into SMEs' present stage in relation to a possible future approach to strategic CSR communication. The paper also reminds us that SMEs have no interest in turning their local and authentic practice into a forced marketing and branding exercise, leaving them with an artificial picture of who they are and strive to be in the future. They should keep on acting locally but force themselves to think globally.