A Case Study and Field Evaluation of EDP-XPERT

This paper reports on the continued evaluation of EDP-XPERT, and expert system for assisting Computer Audit Specialists (CASs) in evaluating the reliability of EDP controls in advanced computer environments. The current evaluation of the system involved four phases. First, Senior CASs used the system on two case studies. Second, it was then used by the Senior CASs to evaluate recently completed audits. Third, a sensitivity analysis of the system's output was conducted. Fourth, the knowledge base was reprogrammed into another expert system shell and the Senior CASs' responses on the two cases and the audits were re-run. The results indicated that EDP-XPERT performed well on the case studies but that performance declined on the audits. The sensitivity analysis showed that EDP-XPERT's conclusions were affected by moderate perturbations of the CASs' input judgments. Finally, reprogramming the knowledge base into a more flexible expert system shell substantially improved the performance of the system's judgements.     

Ownership and Cost‐Sharing Contracts

We discuss the relative merits of public and private ownership in an incomplete contract framework developed by Hart, Shleifer and Vishney (HSV). We add two new elements to their model. First, the government may offer cost‐sharing contracts when procuring the good. Second, the owner of a private firm may divert resources that increase their own profit/utility but increase total costs. The cost sharing contract allows the government to reduce the private firm's incentives to dump quality in order to save on costs. However, this also leads to resource diversion, which increases total costs. We derive the preferred mode of ownership when the government optimally chooses the power of the cost sharing scheme. We find that the presence of quality‐reducing cost reductions only favours government ownership if the scope for resource diversion is substantial. A discussion of when resource diversion is likely to be important is also provided.     

HRM in dynamic environments: Exploitative,exploratory, and ambidextrous HR architectures

Abstract

The current economic crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to deal with ambiguity and complexity. Hence, firms need a specific balance between exploration and exploitation in order to keep pace with varying and changing environmental conditions. Hitherto, there is limited research that has examined the nexus of HR architectures, ambidexterity, and environmental dynamics. In this conceptual paper we ask: How do HR architectures serve as a means of balancing exploitative and exploratory learning in different dynamic environments? We explain how exploratory, exploitative, and ambidextrous HR architectures with their embedded HRM systems on the business unit level enable organizations to meet different environmental requirements. Thus, firms in which heterogeneous demands for flexibility and for innovation co-exist need to develop internally differentiated HR architectures. In particular, we elucidate how critical the organization’s ability is to connect different HRM systems to create an ambidextrous HR architecture to find an appropriate balance between exploration and exploitation.     

Innovation in the bioeconomy – dynamics of biorefinery innovation networks

The bioeconomy has become a central concept in many strategies for future economic development, emphasising an increasing need for collaboration across industries and sectors for innovation. This paper unpacks aspects of collaboration in the bioeconomy by looking at the development of innovation networks for biorefinery technologies from 2004 to 2014 based on innovation project data from Swedish public funding agencies using a stochastic actor-oriented model for network analysis. The analysis shows that although the network grew significantly during the time period, indicating an increasing interest in biorefinery technology innovation, inter-sectoral collaboration is not favoured over intra-sectoral collaboration. As is known from previous work on social networks trust-building is a key driver for collaboration, as actors tend to form collaborations with previous partners or indirectly connected partners, creating clustered networks.     

Debt Relief as a Last Resort for the Lender of Last Resort?

The coronavirus crisis has led to a sharp increase in the debt-to-GDP ratios of the euro area member states. Without external support, access to the capital market could be seriously threatened in the medium term for Italy, but also for other member states. While the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme, which is designed as a monetary policy instrument, is regarded by some as a violation of the prohibition of monetary financing, the Next Generation EU recovery fund is likely to direct the fundamental structures of the European Union towards a fiscal union with considerable redistribution elements. This article analyses an alternative strategy, namely debt relief by the European System of Central Banks through an EU debt agency. Such a scheme would be possible without amending the EU treaties and would avoid negative equity at the central banks. The question is under what circumstances would this approach be suitable and proportionate?

     

Green technology innovation: Anatomy of exploration processes from a learning perspective

This paper examines how established firms use their core competences to diversify their business by exploring and ultimately developing green technologies. In contrast to start‐ups dedicated to a green mission, diversifying into green markets by developing new products based on existing core competences has proven to be challenging. This is because the exploration processes to find a match between green technology opportunities and internal competences is complex and new to most established firms. This paper gains insights into exploration processes for green technologies and the learning modes and outcomes linked to these processes. We examined exploration processes at the microlevel in an embedded case study of an engineering firm using a combination of the “fireworks” innovation process model and organizational learning theory. First, we found that developing green technologies involves a long‐term exploratory process without guarantee of (quick) success and likely involves many exploration failures. Second, as exploration unfolds along multiple technology trajectories, learning occurs in individual exploration paths (on‐path), when new paths are pursued (path‐initiation), and when knowledge from one path is spilled over to subsequent paths (across‐paths). Third, to increase their chances for success, firms can increase the efficiency of exploration by fostering a failure‐friendly organizational culture, deliberately experimenting, and purposefully learning from failures.     

If It Works,I like It: Consumer Acceptance of Food-Related Nudging

Abstract

The aim of the current study is to investigate factors that influence consumer acceptance of food-related nudging. Previous studies indicate that perceived effectiveness may positively influence acceptance of nudging, while limited freedom of choice may reduce acceptance. On this basis, acceptance, perceived effectiveness and perceived limited freedom of choice were measured for 11 different food-related nudges in a national representative sample of 455 adults. Five of the nudges were variations of placement alteration, while six were variations of informational labeling. Perceived effectiveness was identified as a significant positive predictor for acceptance of all of the investigated nudges (p?<?0.001), while perceived limited freedom of choice decreased acceptance of all investigated nudges (p?≤?0.02). Perceived effectiveness was the strongest predictor for acceptance of all types of nudges (β-values from 0.55 to 0.75), yet perceived limited freedom of choice was also a significant factor (β-values from ?0.07 to ?0.23).     

Least-squares forecast averaging

This paper proposes forecast combination based on the method of Mallows Model Averaging (MMA). The method selects forecast weights by minimizing a Mallows criterion. This criterion is an asymptotically unbiased estimate of both the in-sample mean-squared error (MSE) and the out-of-sample one-step-ahead mean-squared forecast error (MSFE). Furthermore, the MMA weights are asymptotically mean-square optimal in the absence of time-series dependence. We show how to compute MMA weights in forecasting settings, and investigate the performance of the method in simple but illustrative simulation environments. We find that the MMA forecasts have low MSFE and have much lower maximum regret than other feasible forecasting methods, including equal weighting, BIC selection, weighted BIC, AIC selection, weighted AIC, Bates–Granger combination, predictive least squares, and Granger–Ramanathan combination.     

The Greenspan years: an analysis of the magnitude and speed of the equity market response to FOMC announcements

We examine the impact of monetary policy on the S&P 500 using intraday data. The analysis shows an economically and statistically significant relationship between S&P 500 intraday returns and changes in the Fed funds target rate. The significance and magnitude of the response is dependent on whether the change was expected or unexpected. An expected change in the Fed funds target rate has no impact on prices in the broad equity market; however, an unexpected change of 25 basis points in the Fed funds target rate results in an approximate 48 basis points decline in the broad equity market’s return. The speed of these market reactions is rapid with the equity market reaching a new equilibrium within 15 minutes.

Investment bank monitoring and bonding of security analysts’ research

We assess investment banks’ influence over the agreement between their analysts’ research behavior and their clients’ interests, in the post-reform era. Competing banks discipline their analysts with worse career outcomes for producing biased reports, issuing shirking reports, and for involvement in the earnings guidance game, showing meaningful monitoring of their analysts. Highly reputable banks provide more monitoring discipline of their analysts and bonding of their moral hazard than other banks. The findings agree with the banks taking responsibility for aligning analysts’ behavior with clients’ interests.