Panel Data Analysis of Regional Differentials in the Registered Voter Turnout Rate and the Expected Benefits of Voting for Minorities

Voter participation rates vary widely across the 50 states. We seek to identify a source of this interstate variation, focusing upon the 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012 general elections. Of note is that the latter two general elections featured a minority (i.e., African-American) nominee for president from one of the major political parties. Within the context of the rational voter model, we hypothesize that the presence of a minority candidate atop the ticket will boost minorities’ expected net benefits from voting, with the result that minority voter participation will be higher. Based on cross-sectional fixed-effects estimations, we find that states’ voter participation rates were unaffected by the percent of the population that was either African-American or Hispanic for the 2000 and 2004 election cycles, while states’ voter participation rates were positively related to the percent of the population that was either African-American or Hispanic for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles.     

Measuring the Impact of Socio-Economic Factors on School Efficiency in Australia

This paper examines the productive efficiency of government schools in New South Wales (NSW) in Australia. The study uses a technical inefficiency effects model applied to a unique three-year panel dataset containing 1235 primary and 371 secondary schools in NSW. A stochastic frontier production function and an inefficiency effects function that control for school socioeconomic and environmental factors are estimated. The dataset contains information on various school inputs, school expenditures by major functional area, parental socioeconomic characteristics, student characteristics, and standardized test scores. We examine the degree to which school and non-school educational inputs influence student achievement scores and find that, overall, primary schools are 88.6% and secondary schools 96.4% efficient. The index describing community socio-educational advantage has the most significant influence on students’ achievement scores.     

The Economic Impact of Brexit: Evidence from Modelling Free Trade Agreements

This paper assesses the economic implications of the United Kingdom (UK) leaving the European Union (EU). The basic data on trade in goods and services and investment between the two parties suggest that the cost of “Brexit” could be substantial. Trade between the UK and the EU-27 is large and of a similar order of magnitude as transatlantic trade (between the EU and the U.S.). The precise nature of the (hopefully free) trade agreement UK-EU-27 is still being negotiated. All available studies concur that a significant disruption of trade links will impose economic costs on both sides. However, the EU-27 would bear only a disproportionally small share of the total cost, not just because it is about five times larger than the UK in economic terms, but also for fundamental reasons such as greater market power of its enterprises. Other studies on different free trade arrangements confirm the general proposition that the smaller party has more to gain from eliminating trade barriers (and more to lose from imposing them). This implies that the EU will have a stronger negotiating position.     

The Interaction of Financial Attitudes and Financial Knowledge: Evidence for Low-Income Hispanic Families

We add to the literature on the association of financial knowledge and financial attitudes with financial outcomes by focusing on predominantly low-income Hispanic families. We examine (i) saving for emergencies, for college, and in 401(k) plans, and (ii) ownership of a home, land or rental property, and an investment account. We find that financial knowledge is strongly related to our savings measures and to owning an investment account. Financial attitudes play less of a role, but assume some importance when interacted with financial knowledge. Self-reported financial knowledge in addition to factual financial knowledge is associated with favorable financial outcomes. Our results are important for the upward economic mobility of a demographic group that has received less attention in the literature.     

International Monetary Instability All Over Again

One of the signature developments of 2016 was the move from globalization and market integration toward nationalism and protection. A headline in the Financial Times (April 13, 2017) read, “‘Sword of protectionism hangs over trade’, says IMF.” The headline demonstrates “Silo-ism”. The Fund does not recognize that the demand for import barriers in countries with large trade deficits and high unemployment have resulted from massive imbalances in international payments. Monetary instability in the 1920s and the 1930s was reflected in the overvaluation of the British pound, the undervaluation of the French franc and subsequent overvaluation of the U.S. dollar. Britain voted to leave the European Union in June 2016, in part because the high price of the British pound depressed exports and wages in manufacturing. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) has doubled since 1980, yet manufacturing employment has declined by eight million. The demand for protection in the U.S. has increased because the more rapid growth of imports than exports has led to the decline of three to four million U.S. manufacturing jobs.     

The death of Canadian manufacturing plants: heterogeneous responses to changes in tariffs and real exchange rates

We examine simultaneously the effects of real-exchange-rate movements and tariff reductions on plant death in Canadian manufacturing industries between 1979 and 1996. Consistent with the implications of recent international trade models with heterogeneous firms, we find that the impact of exchange-rate movements and tariff cuts on exit is heterogeneous—particularly pronounced among least efficient plants. Our results further reveal multi-dimensional heterogeneity that current models featuring one-dimensional heterogeneity (efficiency differences among plants) cannot fully explain: exporters and foreign-owned plants have much lower failure rates; however, their survival rates are more sensitive to changes in tariffs and real exchange rates.     

The role of foreign direct investment in the host-country firm selection process: firm-level evidence from Slovenian manufacturing

This paper examines the role of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) in firm selection processes in the Slovenian manufacturing sector in the 1994–2003 period. It adopts the firm dynamics framework that allows testing of selection effects directly by assessing the impact of foreign firms’ activity on the probability of exiting of local firms (crowding out). The results show that intra-industry productivity spillover effects offset only a minor part of the competition pressure which results from foreign firm entry, hence incumbent firms experience a drop in their survival probability upon a foreign firm’s entry within a particular industry. This result is driven by foreign firm entry of the greenfield type, as entry through the acquisition of existing firms has no significant effect. The strength of the crowding-out effect decreases with the incumbent firm’s export propensity. There is no significant evidence that inward FDI would stimulate the selection process through backward linkages in the upstream supplying industries, whereas foreign firms’ activity reduces the exit probability of downstream local customers (through forward linkages).