化工行业供应链的发展及对策

近20多年来,中国经济持续高速发展,多种产品总产量已居世界首位。城市化进程加快,市场需求旺盛。由于中国资源、能源人均保有量低于世界平均水平,再加上技术水平制约,相同生产过程物耗、能耗较高,造成了环境污染严重,生态状况恶化。为此,本文详细研究了我国化工行业供应链的发展及对策,具有深刻的理论意义和广泛的实际应用。     

Factors Influencing the Incidence of Bribery Payouts by Firms: A Cross-Country Analysis

This article explores micro- and macro-level variables that influence the incidence of bribery payouts by firms. A rich data set with information from 55 countries was utilized to achieve this objective. Results of logit regression models indicate that there are a number of micro- and macro-level factors that significantly affect the incidence of bribery payouts. This suggests that it is not only the characteristics of a firm but also the environment of doing business that affect the firm’s bribery decision. The results of this study provides information that may help firms develop strategies to reduce corruption in their respective industries and thereby improve their image of corporate social responsibility. The analysis also points to possible policy directions that governments could undertake in order to reduce the incidence of bribery in their country.      

从"浙江模式"的经验看我国中小企业信用担保模式的建立

担保模式的选择首先是一个实践问题而不是一个理论问题,因为担保机构的诞生源于中小企业的融资难这一世界难题。在众多解决中小企业融资难的方法中,我国浙江省创造的中小企业信用担保框架被业界称作"浙江模式,"浙江模式是一个自我发展起来的实践模式,理论界没有对浙江模式进行过系统的解释,文章对浙江模式作了一个理论上的总结,并以此检视我国担保模式的路径选择。     

Quality in reflective thinking: elicitation and classification of reflective acts

The concept of reflective thinking needs to be instantiated for more effective educational implementations and practice in the process of thinking and learning. This article therefore expounds on the elicitation and classification of the Reflective Acts derived primarily from various studies conducted on reflective practice, student reflections and metacognition. In order to elicit and classify the Reflective Acts, the study employed three sequential phases of analyses: qualitative meta-analysis, purport analysis and Intention Clustering Method. As a result, 17 types of reflective acts were identified and classified into four main categories: Interpretive, Associative, Transformative and Affective. It is concluded in the article that through the presence and awareness of Reflective Acts, the concept of reflective thinking will be better comprehended, perceived and retained, engendering the process of reflective thinking into a straightforward practice to guide individuals to perform structured, efficacious and successful reflective acts in order to improve the quality of their reflective thinking and learning.     

An empirical examination of the implications of arbitrage pricing theory

This paper presents a comprehensive set of tests of the implications of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory. We find, unlike previously reported results, a very limited relationship between the expected returns and the covariance (factor loadings) measures of risk. Furthermore, unique variance measures of risk, while generally making only small contributions to the explanation of asset returns, turn out to be significant about as frequently as the coveriance measures of risk — which is inconsistent with the Arbitrage Pricing Theory model. The intercept tests are more mixed but provide only limited support to the model.     

人民币汇率改革的多维思考

升值幅度的确定——为什么是2％？ 2％的升值幅度的确定，实际上主要考虑的是中国的贸易顺差总体规模以及特定的经济结构调整的需要，以及企业的适应能力。2004年我国商品贸易和服务项目顺差是320亿美元，占GDP的比重不到2％，加上考虑到中国的出口弹性和进口弹性，从总量上来看，2％的升值幅度基本上可以促成实现商品贸易和服务项目的大体平衡。     

Impact of ICT on the productivity of the firm: evidence from Turkish manufacturing

This paper aims to explore the impact of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) on labor productivity growth in Turkish manufacturing. This is the first attempt at exploring the impact of ICT on productivity in Turkish manufacturing at the firm level. The analysis is based on firm level data obtained from Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) and covers the period from 2003 to 2012. The data used in the analysis includes all firms employing 19+ workers in Turkish manufacturing industry. Growth accounting results show that the contributions of conventional and ICT capital to value added growth are not significantly different from each other. On the other hand, results based both on static (fixed-effects) and dynamic panel data analysis highlight the positive influence on firms’ productivity exerted by ICT capital. The findings show that the impact of ICT capital on productivity is larger by about 25 to 50% than that of conventional capital. This contribution of ICT capital is higher than that of non-ICT capital for small sized and low-tech firms. Our findings imply that investing in ICT capital increases firm productivity by increasing the productivity of labor and also that convention growth accounting approaches may not be adequate to identify such linkages.     

MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION OF FACTOR MODELS ON DATASETS WITH ARBITRARY PATTERN OF MISSING DATA

In this paper we modify the expectation maximization algorithm in order to estimate the parameters of the dynamic factor model on a dataset with an arbitrary pattern of missing data. We also extend the model to the case with a serially correlated idiosyncratic component. The framework allows us to handle efficiently and in an automatic manner sets of indicators characterized by different publication delays, frequencies and sample lengths. This can be relevant, for example, for young economies for which many indicators have been compiled only recently. We evaluate the methodology in a Monte Carlo experiment and we apply it to nowcasting of the euro area gross domestic product. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

巴塞尔协议Ⅲ流动性监管新规及其影响

巴塞尔银行监管委员会于2013年1月推出了新修订的《巴塞尔协议Ⅲ:流动性覆盖率和流动性风险监测工具》,体现了国际流动性监管改革的最新发展趋势。本文介绍了巴塞尔协议Ⅲ流动性风险监管改革及其修订的背景,对流动性监管新规的内容进行了分析和评价,探讨了流动性监管新规可能产生的影响,并为我国监管当局如何应对国际流动性风险监管改革提出了相关的政策建议。     

All-pay war

We study a model of conflicts and wars in which the outcome is uncertain not because of luck on the battlefield as in standard models, but because countries lack information about their opponent. In this model expected resource levels and production and military technologies are common knowledge, but realized resource levels are private information. Each country decides how to allocate its resources to production and warfare. The country with the stronger military wins and receives aggregate production. In equilibrium both comparative and absolute advantages matter: a larger resource share is allocated to warfare by the country with a comparative advantage in warfare at relatively low realized resource levels, and by the country with an absolute disadvantage in warfare at relatively high realized resource levels. From an ex-ante perspective the country with a comparative advantage in warfare is more likely to win the war unless its military potential is much lower.