Asymmetric information in commodity futures markets: Theory and empirical evidence

This article examines the theoretical and empirical implications of asymmetric information in commodity futures markets. In particular, it formulates and tests a theoretical model that recognizes two distinct categories of traders: hedgers, who participate in both spot and futures markets, and speculators, who participate only in the futures market. Speculators are assumed to possess differential information about the realized values of selected random variables. Multiperiod futures market equilibria are derived under competitive conditions, and the ability of futures markets to forecast changes in equilibrium spot market prices are examined. The key variable is shown to be the randomness and informational asymmetry in the aggregate supply by participating hedgers in the spot market, whose absence turns out to be the major determinant of the revelation of informational asymmetry. Moreover, under the assumption of independence of error forecasts for prices and spot market supplies, it is shown that futures market equilibrium ends up with linear expressions for prices and futures contract volumes. These linear expressions are then used to develop empirically testable models. The main empirical implications in these models revolve around the role of the basis as a predictor of future spot price changes. The paper provides an empirical investigation of these implications, using three commodities traded on the Winnipeg Commodity Exchange (WCE). © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 18:803–825, 1998     

The Relationship between the Canadian Treasury-Bill Rate and Expected Inflation in Canada and in the United States

This paper investigates the relationship between treasury-bill rates and expected inflation rates in Canada and in the United States during the 1953–75 period. The tests are based on quarterly data and use two inflation-interest-rate models in which expected real returns on treasury bills are assumed either to be constant or to follow a random walk. The study indicates that treasury-bill rates in Canada have provided good assessments of expected inflation in the United States rather than in Canada during the entire period under study. This result is consistent with empirical evidence about the predominant influence of American monetary policy and interest-rate trends on Canadian monetary policy and interest-rate policy, and with the evidence about the efficiency of the United States treasury-bill market during most of the period under study. Résumé Ce mémoire étudie la relation entre les taux des bons du Trésor et le taux attendu d'inflation au Canada et aux Etats-Unis entre 1953 et 1975. Les tests sont menés à partir de données trimestrielles. Ils utilisent deux modèles de rapport taux d'inflation taux d'intérět dans lesquels le rendement réel des bons du Trésor est supposé constant ou fluctue librement. L'étude indique que les bons du Trésor au Canada ont prévu adéquatement le taux d'inflation attendu aux Etats-Unis plutǒt qu'au Canada pendant toute la période à l'étude. Ces résultats correspondent à la preuve empirique de l'influence prédominante de la politique monétaire américaine et de la fluctuation des taux d'intérět sur la politique monétaire et les taux d'intérět du Canada. Ces résultats corroborent également l'efficacité prouvée du marché américain des bons du Trésor pendant presque toute la période à l'étude.     

Terms-of-trade shocks and macroeconomic volatility in developing countries: panel smooth transition regression models

This paper investigates the relationship between terms-of-trade shocks and macroeconomic volatility for a panel of 58 developing countries from 1980 to 2015. Using a Panel Smooth Transition Regression model, we prove first, that terms-of-trade volatility have a statistically significant and positive impact on the volatility of output growth, although the magnitude of this effect is not the same by the report to the threshold that has been identified. Second, the terms-of-trade volatility affect macroeconomic fluctuation differently depending on whether the country is a net exporter of the commodity, fuel or manufactured goods.     

Exploring the relationships between innovation and internationalization of small and medium‐sized enterprises: A nonrecursive structural equation model

This article seeks to provide more insights on the two‐way link between internationalization and innovation by considering total, direct, and reciprocal effects using a nonrecursive structural model. Innovation is defined through product and process development, while internationalization is defined through inward and outward internationalization in both closer and farther markets. The results suggest that these two major sources of growth are linked by different sets of relations, from the investment in product and process innovation to outward internationalization in a closer market, or from inward and outward internationalization in farther markets to the investment in product innovation. Copyright © 2013 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of Extraordinary and Exceptional Items Disclosed by Hong Kong Companies

This study evaluates extraordinary and exceptional items (EI) disclosed in financial statements by Hong Kong companies from 1989 to 1993, prior to revision of SSAP 2. The results indicate that disclosures of positive EI were associated with market expectations of profit before taxes. If market expectations were higher than profit before EI and taxes (PBEI), positive EI (gains) were likely to be disclosed to adjust PBEI upwards and thus reduce the gap between reported and expected profits.
The results relating to negative EI (losses) showed that if companies had low historical economic performance they were more likely to disclose negative EI. Because weak historical economic performance is likely to be associated with low market expectations, management used this opportunity to 'spring clean' in order to show better economic performance in future years.
These findings suggest that managers engage in earnings management through disclosure of extraordinary items when they have flexibility to do so. In order to improve quality of financial disclosure, better accounting standards need to be developed for disclosures of extraordinary items, especially by newly developed and developing countries where accounting standards are at the formative stage.     

Market forces meet behavioral biases: cost misallocation and irrational pricing

Psychological and experimental evidence, as well as a wealth of anecdotal examples, suggests that firms may confound fixed, sunk, and variable costs, leading to distorted pricing decisions. This article investigates the extent to which market forces and learning eventually eliminate these distortions. We envision firms that experiment with cost methodologies that are consistent with real‐world accounting practices, including ones that confuse the relevance of variable, fixed, and sunk costs to pricing decisions. Firms follow “naive” adaptive learning to adjust prices and reinforcement learning to modify their costing methodologies. Costing and pricing practices that increase profits are reinforced. In some market structures, but not in others, this process of reinforcement causes pricing practices of all firms to systematically depart from standard equilibrium predictions.     

The Relative Importance of Ethics as a Selection Criterion for Entry-Level Public Accountants: Does Gender Make a Difference?

This paper examines public accountants’ perceptions of the relative importance of business ethics as a selection criterion for entry-level public accounting positions. Also, it seeks to determine whether gender differences do exist with respect to these perceptions. The data were collected through a survey of 335 professional accountants in four southeastern states. The results show that, among the eight selection factors that were studied, technical competence in accounting, communication skills, and interpersonal skills were the most influential, while professionalism and leadership abilities were the least important. Ethics was ranked fourth by the females and sixth by the males. A multivariate analysis of variance revealed significant differences between the genders with respect to five of the eight factors. The females’ scores were higher for ethics and interpersonal skills and lower for conceptual aptitude, strategic thinking, and leadership abilities. Implications for accounting educators and practitioners are discussed.