Fiscal policy reforms and dynamic Laffer effects

This paper looks at the conditions under which a dynamic Laffer effect occurs. Using a basic model, we explain and reconcile selected findings in the literature. We numerically show that a lower tax rate on capital income is the best candidate for obtaining a dynamic Laffer effect—here defined as an improvement in the long-run budget balance of the government. Moreover, ignoring the stock of initial debt and changes in labor supply lead to an overestimation and underestimation of the effect, respectively. Finally, we show that when lower taxes on factor income are financed by higher taxes on consumption, there exists a wide array of combinations for which there is an improvement in both the long-run government budget balance and lifetime welfare. These combinations, however, differ in their implications for labor supply and immediate welfare effects.     

Forecasting interest rates with shifting endpoints

We consider forecasting the term structure of interest rates with the assumption that factors driving the yield curve are stationary around a slowly time‐varying mean or ‘shifting endpoint’. The shifting endpoints are captured using either (i) time series methods (exponential smoothing) or (ii) long‐range survey forecasts of either interest rates or inflation and output growth, or (iii) exponentially smoothed realizations of these macro variables. Allowing for shifting endpoints in yield curve factors provides substantial and significant gains in out‐of‐sample predictive accuracy, relative to stationary and random walk benchmarks. Forecast improvements are largest for long‐maturity interest rates and for long‐horizon forecasts. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Book reviews

Abstract

This article examines the cultural field of fitness as a network of producers, consumers, products and practices that has developed around the care of the body through physical exercise. Drawing on a thematic text analysis of US exercise manuals, the paper focuses on how the commercial fitness field naturalizes associations between physical exercise and leisure, and between leisure and self‐work. In particular, the analysis examines three themes and their relevance to our broader understanding of leisure in contemporary consumer society: the management of leisure time; the use of leisure for self‐investment strategies; and the promotion of consumption as the framework for leisure and an accompanying notion of pleasure. The fitness field casts light on how leisure more generally is constructed as a sphere of obligations to make productive use of one’s time, to improve one’s body and self, and to do so through the wares of the consumer marketplace. The cultural imaginary of leisure as a time of freedom from work and responsibility is thus recast, in an age of individualization, as a time of freedom to accomplish the work of self‐production.     

Measuring Harmonisation of Financial Reporting Practice

Many organisations are currently engaged in the process of national and international harmonisation of financial reporting. This paper examines the nature of the harmonisation problem and the possibility of developing a method to quantify the degree of harmony of financial reporting practice. This quantification can be useful in determining problem areas where the degree of harmony is low, and the impact of standards on financial reporting harmony and spontaneous harmonisation, i.e. harmonisation that cannot be attributed to laws, standards or guidelines. Standard setters might use the method to set goals in respect of the required degree of harmony when issuing a standard, guideline or opinion.     

Neoliberalization,Housing Institutions and Variegated Gentrification: How the ‘Third Wave’ Broke in Amsterdam

Neil Smith argues that in the last two decades gentrification has become a generalized global urban phenomenon. His theory is at a high level of abstraction, as it links urban gentrification to globalization, financial capitalism and neoliberalization. With these global processes, all cities have experienced ‘third wave’ gentrification. The theory, however, leaves little room for variegations of gentrification, apart from characterizing geographical differences as idiosyncrasies or as minor variations. This downplays the role of intervening mechanisms that impinge upon the pursuit and social outcomes of gentrification. This article aims to amend abstract theory by looking at Amsterdam from a historical institutional perspective. In Amsterdam, gentrification was particularly made possible by a process of neoliberalization within the housing system. However, as institutional change is incremental and based on layering and conversion, many older institutional arrangements remain in place. These arrangements tend to slow gentrification and assuage social consequences. Nevertheless, neoliberal modifications to the housing system have been accelerating the pursuit of gentrification. Current policies will very likely lead to exclusionary displacement.     

Trade in Services and TFP: The Role of Regulation

What determines total factor productivity (TFP) growth in services: is it services trade or services–trade regulation? To respond to this question, we use four indicators of international trade in services since 1990 to 2005, namely foreign direct investment (FDI) inward stock, services imports, domestic sales of foreign affiliates (FATS) and FDI inflows, to examine what type of services trade forms a direct determinant. Subsequently, we analyse what type of sector‐specific regulation has played an inhibiting effect on services TFP growth. Such analysis contrasts with former studies in which mainly factor inputs and economy‐wide regulation are used to explain services TFP. This paper provides evidence that neither trade nor entry barriers are robust determinants to explain cross‐country differences. Instead, regulations on operational procedures affecting the variables costs structure of the firm seem to play a more important role in explaining TFP growth between countries, particularly in combination with information and communication technology (ICT) capital.     

The Hong Kong tourist satisfaction index

This study develops a tourist satisfaction assessment system based on a dual-model framework and demonstrates its general applicability. The first model concerns tourist satisfaction and its key antecedents and consequences. Structural equation modelling is employed to investigate the relationships amongst the constructs in the theoretical framework, and is then used as a basis for the computation of sectoral-level tourist satisfaction indexes. The second model is designed to estimate an aggregate service satisfaction index and an overall destination satisfaction index using a multiple indicator and multiple cause approach. The framework is applied to a large dataset that represents six tourism-related sectors and seven major source markets of inbound tourism to Hong Kong.     

A Walk in Customers' Shoes: How Attentional Bias Modification Affects Ownership of Integrity-violating Social Media Posts

The number of social media posts that expose company integrity violations has increased dramatically. In response, some companies empower employees to respond to customer blogs, which requires employees to recognize the customer's perspective. We show that attentional bias modification can be used to prime employees of two global Fortune 100 companies with a self-sufficiency or empathy bias. The results indicate that narrative transportation, or the extent to which employees mentally enter the world evoked by a customer's story, mediates the effect of attentional bias on two relevant psychological ownership dimensions: acknowledgment of responsibility and willingness to respond. Participants with a self-sufficiency bias neither acknowledge responsibility nor want to respond. However, participants primed with an empathy bias take responsibility for the customer's case and respond to the integrity violation. We find evidence for two boundary conditions of this effect: (1) it strengthens when the employee perceives the customer's financial vulnerability as high and (2) it weakens when the customer is impolite in the blog post.     

Bottlenecks in ramping up public investment

A windfall in a developing economy with capital scarcity and investment adjustment costs facing a temporary windfall should be used to give more consumption to poorer present generations and to speed up development by ramping up public investment and paying off debt taking due account of the increasing inefficiency as investment gets ramped up. The optimal strategy requires negative genuine saving; the permanent income requires zero genuine saving. The optimal real consumption increments are smaller once one allows for absorption constraints resulting from Dutch disease and sluggish adjustment of ‘home-grown’ public capital.