On the power function of the exact test for ther×c contingency table

Summary LetN=[n _ij ] (i=1, …,r;j=1, …,c) be the matrix of observed frequencies in anr×c contingency table fromr possibly different multinomial populations with respective probabilitiesp _i =(p _i1, …,p _ic ).Freeman andHalton have proposed an exact conditional test for the hypothesisH ₀ :p _i =(p ₁, …p _c ) of the exact test is derived. Numerical values forβ(p) were previously computed for the special case:r=3,c=2 [Bennett andNakamura, 1964].     

The role of trust and contract in the supply of business advice

The use of legal contract and personal trust are compared inthis paper for the relationships between clients and their differentadvisers who supply business advice. Personal trust betweenclient and adviser is found to operate as an exclusive meansto manage relational exchange only for social and family relationships.Using a sample survey of small and medium sized enterprises,results demonstrate that trust and legal contract are most commonlyoverlapping categories. Comparing different types of adviser,the level of trust, extent of legal contract, service intensity,service costs and client impact and satisfaction are each foundto interact. There are major differences between suppliers,but except in the case of social and family relationships toadvisers, higher reliance on trust alone is generally associatedwith lower levels of client impact and satisfaction received.The combination of trust with contract tends to be the routewhich is most associated with higher levels of client impactand satisfaction.     

Minimising Payment Vehicle Bias in Contingent Valuation Studies

The payment vehicle is a crucial element inapplications of the contingent valuation methodbecause it provides the context for payment. However,in many countries a relative unfamiliarity with theuse of tax levies and referenda can affect theplausibility of payment vehicles and lead to paymentvehicle bias. The most commonly used approach fordetermining whether payment bias exists is to usetests of convergent validity. It is demonstrated thatsimple tests of convergent validity can be ineffectivein diagnosing the existence of payment vehicle bias.Payment vehicle bias is found to occur because ofdifferences in the coverage of payment vehicles anddoubts about payment being one-off. When respondentsare found to be protesting against a particularpayment vehicle, the current state of the art approachis to delete them from the sample. In this paper analternative approach that relies on the recoding ofprotest responses is proposed.     

Shaping safe drinking cultures: evoking positive emotion to promote moderate‐drinking behaviour

Social marketing by Western governments that use fear tactics and threatening information to promote anti‐drinking messages has polarized ‘binge drinking’ and ‘moderate drinking’ through a continuum that implies benefits and harms for both individuals and society. With the goal of extending insights into social marketing approaches that promote safer drinking cultures in Australia, we discuss findings from a study that examines alcohol consumers' moderate‐drinking intentions. By applying the theory of planned behaviour and emotions theory, we discuss survey results from a sample of alcohol consumers, which demonstrate that positively framed value propositions that evoke happiness and love are more influential in the processing of an alcohol moderation message for alcohol consumers. The key limitations of this study are the cross‐sectional nature of the data and the focal‐dependent variable being behavioural intentions rather than behaviours. Research insight into the stronger influence of positive emotions on processing an alcohol moderation message establishes an important avenue for future social marketing communications that moves beyond negative, avoidance appeals to promote behaviour change in drinkers. These research findings will benefit professionals involved in developing social change campaigns that promote and reinforce consumers' positive intentions, with messages about the benefits of controlled, moderate drinking.     

Spatial differentiation and price discrimination in the cement industry: evidence from a structural model

We estimate a structural model of the cement industry that incorporates spatial differentiation and price discrimination, focusing on the US Southwest over 1983–2003. We leverage the structure of the model to obtain consistent estimates of the underlying parameters using data on market outcomes that are substantially aggregated. Our results indicate that transportation costs around $0.46 per tonne‐mile rationalize the data. This friction enables relatively isolated plants to obtain higher prices from nearby customers. We further find that disallowing price discrimination would create $30 million in consumer surplus annually and show how the model can identify suitable divestitures in merger analysis.     

What Determines TSR

Researchers have long wrestled with the question of what determines a company's total shareholder return, or TSR, and their results have been decidedly mixed. Some empirical studies come down in favor of dividends or earnings per share, while others favor return on capital or other profitability measures. In this article, the author takes a “first principles” approach that begins by demonstrating that TSR should be a function of a company's economic profit, or its Economic Value Added (or EVA). He shows that, from a theoretical standpoint, the sum of dividends and share price appreciation—which is the definition of TSR—is ultimately a function of increasing EVA and, along with it, a company's “aggregate NPV.” He further shows that if stock prices are determined by discounting expected cash flows, corporate NPV will equal the discounted value of EVA, and increasing NPV will come down to increasing EVA. In developing his argument, the author demonstrates that TSR is actually a leveraged version of a measure he calls “TIR,” or total investor return, which is the blended return that an investor would earn from owning the entire capital structure of a company, bonds as well as stock. He then presents the findings of regression analysis showing that a company's TIR and TSR are both strongly positively correlated with its EVA performance plus the change in its aggregate NPV (with R²s equal to 1.0 and 0.94, respectively). In a final step, the author shows that the change in EVA provides a better statistical explanation than other financial measures for changes in aggregate NPV and, hence, actual TSR     

The mortuary as a source of injury data: progress towards a mortuary data guideline for fatal injury surveillance

To help bridge the obstacle of inadequate injury fatality data in low and medium income countries (LMICs) a simple cost effective system for mortuary surveillance of fatal injuries is being developed in consultation with the WHO. This will inform, direct and monitor injury prevention (IP) interventions and policies in LMICs. This article uses CDC's 'attributes of a successful surveillance system' to describe the process, the barriers and solutions in development of this mortuary data guideline. The consultative process utilised generated feedback from key stakeholders including forensic pathologists, Ministry of Health officials and injury prevention experts. An International Advisory Group was also convened to guide the guideline development. These assisted the adjustment of the proposed guideline to maximise flexibility, acceptability and stability; whilst minimising resource implications. Representativeness and the securing of government support perhaps remain the most significant challenges. Consultation with the advisory group and the wider stakeholders has been effective in developing a widely acceptable, user-friendly, low resource data form to gather useful data. Further strategies to overcome barriers need to be developed over the course of the pilot study and this should be done in consultation with the advisory group and stakeholders.     

PARAMETER ESTIMATION WITH AUTOCORRELATED DISTURBANCES

Available methods for dealing with autocorrelated disturbanecs are unsatisfactory. They are computationally cumbersome and lead to estimators that have only weak asymptotic properties. Maximum likelihood estimation of all parameters is theoretically preferable, but has been unpopular due to the practical difficulties of numerical optimization in a multidimensional space. In this paper it is shown that the computational aspect of maximum likelihood estimation can be greatly simplified. The numerical search is confined to the interval (— 1, 1) of the autocorrelation parameter. The method is applicable to a single static equation as well as to autoregressive models with one or more equations. Some sampling experiments demonstrate the superiority of the maximum likelihood estimator over ordinary least squares, generalized least squares, and one other estimator in small samples.     

The Impact of Competition on Investment: Evidence From California Hospitals*

I examine the relationship between bargaining leverage and capital investment using data on California’s hospital markets. I find evidence that investment increases with bargaining leverage; a hospital whose bargaining position improves by one standard deviation will increase its investment rate by 16 percentage points. A positive causal relationship between bargaining leverage and investment fits the institutional details of the health care sector, where many firms have non-profit tax status, making it difficult to return monopoly rents to shareholders. Consistent with this explanation, I find that non-profit hospitals with bargaining leverage invest more than for-profit ones, all else equal. I do not find strong evidence that financing constraints matter disproportionately for hospitals operating in more competitive markets, supporting the hypothesis that the incremental investment may not be socially efficient.