Oil prices and world inflation

In this paper we attempt to address the nature of the causal relationships between oil prices and U.S. inflation. We use a procedure developed by Granger to assess “causality” or, more precisely stated, “informativeness.” Our results confirm that higher oil prices have increased the U.S. WPI. Our results also support OPEC's contention that their price increases have in part been a result of worldwide inflation.     

DO OLDER WORKERS DROP OUT OF THE LABOUR MARKET? SOME RECENT BRITISH EVIDENCE

This paper demonstrates the significance of age and duration effects in the relationship between earnings and unemployment using two-step GMM estimation and UK county level data for 1984–1993.     

Pension Policy and the Value of Corporate‐Level Investment

We examine how pension policy affects the value of corporate‐level investment to the firm and its various claimants using Monte Carlo simulation. Shareholders lose the greatest amount of project value to the pension plan when it is undiversified across asset classes. Improved funding levels mandated by the provisions of the Pension Protection Act of 2006 generally reduce those wealth transfers. Thus, mitigation of the overhang effect joins the reduction of financial distress costs as a motivation for holding both stocks and bonds in the pension fund.     

An Expert System Solution to Mortgage Arrears Problems

This article draws on research into the current level of provision of arrears and debt counselling in building societies, banks and finance houses and concludes that, whilst interest in a consistent and systematic approach to arrears counselling is very positive, progress towards any practical application of Information Technology in the arrears counselling process is slow. In response to this shortfall the article presents a novel approach to arrears counselling through an expert system named Personal Insolvency Strategy Counselling Expert System (PISCES). Work on PISCES at Loughborough University Banking Centre has shown that much of the expertise and knowledge of the experienced arrears counsellor can be captured within a computer-based system. An evaluation of PISCES by interested parties has confirmed that the expert system approach to arrears counselling is valid and that the PISCES system, in particular shows promise.     

Individual, Social and Organizational Sources of Sharing and Variation in the Ethical Reasoning of Managers

A growth in consumer and media ethical consciousness has resulted in the need for organizations to ensure that members understand, share and project an approved and unified set of ethics. Thus understanding which variables are related to sharing and variation of ethical reasoning and moral intent, and the relative strength of these variables is critical. While past research has examined individual (attitudes, values, etc.), social (peers, significant others, etc.) and organizational (codes of conduct, senior management, etc.) variables, it has focused on their influence on the individual – and not on their role in relation to patterns of group sharing and variation in an organization. Introduced as a new methodology to study ethics, microcultural analysis stipulates that to explain patterns of sharing and variation, one must understand how individual, social and organizational variables influence sharing and variation. Key hypotheses predict that managers who share in individual, social or organizational determinants will be more likely to share in ethical reasoning and moral intent. Qualitative and quantitative research supports the key hypotheses, finding social ties, personal moral intensity, Machiavellianism, locus of control and codes of ethics as significant determinants. Individuals who share in these determinants are more likely to share in ethical reasoning and moral intent. Additionally, regression analysis reveals social ties and personal moral intensity to be the strongest determinants. Based on these results, managerial recommendations focus on a holistic approach, manipulating these three determinants to cultivate a unified code of ethics within an organization.