The power of asymmetric unit root tests under threshold and consistent-threshold estimation

The asymmetric unit root tests of Enders and Granger (Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 16, 304–11, 1998) are examined using consistent threshold estimation and the original two-step procedure. In contrast to earlier studies, the ability of the tests to jointly reject the unit root and symmetry hypotheses is examined, thus permitting a fuller analysis of the tests' properties. Whilst the threshold autoregressive test is found to have little power in either its consistent or original forms, the consistent momentum-threshold autoregressive test is found to exhibit high power against a range of plausible alternatives when using newly derived critical values.     

全球股市低迷 亚洲首当其冲

一年前，当信贷危机在美国和欧洲刚刚崭露头角时，许多投资者都将亚洲股票视为了天堂。时至今日，全球股市经历了6个多月的下跌，而亚洲市场的跌幅位居前列。     

A community-based impact assessment of the Wild Coast spatial development initiative, 1997–2004

Much of the debate around the spatial development initiatives (SDIs) in South Africa is based on economic theory. To add the community perspective, an evaluation of local economic development on the Wild Coast followed a baseline in 1997 with comparable surveys in 2000 and 2004. Apart from an increase in access to piped water and a reduction in unofficial payments for health services, there was little community evidence of development over this period. Residents reported decreasing knowledge of the SDI and there was no increase in numbers considering small business ownership. In the investment-intensive ‘anchor’ areas, as in the SDI as a whole, there was no significant increase in employment and more households received remitted incomes from migrant workers. In an SDI for small businesses in tourism and agriculture, there was a dramatic fall-off in food production. No more households had loans in 2004 than in 1997, but more were taking loans from loan sharks. Other spatial planning initiatives might learn from the Wild Coast, not least through the perspectives gained from community-based impact assessments.     

Sexual Selection and Economic Positioning

Synopsis In their recent survey of Darwinian aesthetics, Grammer et al. (2003) note the surprising lack of a connection between studies related to human beauty and the theory of sexual selection. Understanding this missing link sheds new light on recent research that indicates positional concerns Pingle & Mitchell 2002, Solnick & Hemenway 1998, are important factors in the decision-making process. Integrating the theory of sexual selection into the decision framework found in economics makes it possible to explain why individuals are potentially willing to accept less, as long as it places them in a superior position relative to others.     

The New Accountability? Devolution and Expenditure Politics in Scotland

Devolution is seen to be a means for enhancing democratic control and accountability in the British political system (Scottish Office, 1997). Proponents of such change have presented it as offering the prospect of a more consensual, transparent and inclusive form of governance, in effect a 'new politics', with less executive dominance than at Westminster. This would be delivered in part by proportional representation, by strengthening the role of the legislature, and by adopting a more consultative approach to decision-making (Scottish Constitutional Convention, 1995). This article focuses on expenditure politics in the budget and audit processes of the Scottish Parliament.     

Variable Specific Factors and the “X-Efficiency Cost” of Protection *

This paper analyzes the effects of protection on X-efficiency using a general equilibrium Ricardo-Viner model with variable sector-specific effort. As in earlier models, it is found that protection only reduces effort if the income effect is sufficiently strong. It is also shown that, provided the correct compensated import demand curve is used, all welfare effects attributable to changes in effort are captured in the standard “triangle” measure of deadweight loss. Moreover, any protection-induced fall in effort will reduce the overall cost of protection, suggesting that policy-induced “X-inefficiency” may be beneficial.     

The dark side of financial innovation: A case study of the pricing of a retail financial product

The offering prices of 64 issues of a popular retail structured equity product were, on average, almost 8% greater than estimates of the products' fair market values obtained using option pricing methods. Under reasonable assumptions about the underlying stocks' expected returns, the mean expected return estimate on the structured products is slightly below zero. The products do not provide tax, liquidity, or other benefits, and it is difficult to rationalize their purchase by informed rational investors. Our findings are, however, consistent with the recent hypothesis that issuing firms might shroud some aspects of innovative securities or introduce complexity to exploit uninformed investors.     

Audit Reports in Australia during the Global Financial Crisis

The Global Financial Crisis reduced economic growth, impacted equity and credit markets, and increased business risk. To the extent that this increased risk translates into greater uncertainty of companies’ ability to continue as going concerns, this should be reflected in audit reports. This paper investigates how the crisis impacted auditor reporting in Australia by examining the period 2005–2009. It finds that the main reason for audit report modification is going concern and that modification rates increased from 12% in 2005–2007 to 18% in 2008 and 22% in 2009. Serious audit report qualification rates remain around 3%.     

Whither Monetary Economics?

I argue that monetary economics should be pursued by applying implementation theory to models which contain explicit frictions that make money essential. The argument has two parts. First, I argue that models in which real balances are assumed to be productive—models with money in utility or production functions or with cash-in-advance constraints—contain hidden inconsistencies. Second, I argue that the approach advocated is capable of providing new insights about some of the main issues in monetary economics: the effects of monetary shocks, the welfare cost of inflation, and the roles of inside and outside money.