International Evidence on the Stability of the Optimizing IS Equation*

We provide international evidence on the issue of whether the optimizing IS equation is more stable than a backward‐looking alternative. This evidence consists of estimates of IS equations on quarterly data for the UK and Australia, both for the full sample of the last 40 years and for the period following major monetary policy shifts in 1979–80. Results suggest the parameters in the optimizing IS equations are more empirically stable than those of the backward‐looking alternative. The use of dynamic general equilibrium modelling in empirical work does deliver material benefits, in the form of equations more suitable for policy analysis.     

Farming System Analysis of an Alternative Production System for Peasant Farming in Morogoro,Tanzania

This paper presents an examination and evaluation of traditional and alternative production systems in Morogoro District, Tanzania. The research employed the Farming Systems Research (FSR) framework to identify an alternative production system. The traditional and alternative systems were field tested and evaluated. Cet article examine et évalue deux systèmes agricoles de production, ?un traditionnel, ?autre alternatif, dans la région de Morogoro en Tanzanie. Ce dernier systéme a été identifié en utilisant la méthodologie de recherche appelée “Farming Systems Research”. Une évaluation économique et sur le terrain de ces deux systèmes a été entreprise.     

Statistical manipulation of delphi statements: Its success and effects on convergence and stability

This paper discusses the results of an experiment to determine if manipulation of statistical feedback of Delphi statements can significantly shift the responses of a fact-probing and/or a value-probing Delphi. This shift is viewed in terms of the degree of success in achieving a desired value. Also examined was whether fact- probing or value-probing Delphis were more susceptible to statistical manipulation. The effects of the statistical manipulation on the convergence and stability of the Delphis were also investigated.     

The determinants of nursing home costs in Nebraska's proprietary nursing homes.

In the past few years nursing home care expenditures in Nebraska and the U.S. have been the fastest growing component of total health care expenditures. This rate of increase is particularly alarming in view of the fact that nursing home care is financed primarily by the Medicaid program or direct out-of-pocket payments. In fact, given the cutbacks in federal and state funds for this program, consumers will be forced to allocate a larger share of their income to meet the costs of nursing home care. Although nursing home expenditures have grown at an extremely rapid rate, relatively few empirical studies exist which analyze the cost function of nursing home providers. The purpose of this study is to identify factors which have directly influenced the cost of nursing home care in Nebraska and to evaluate the current Nebraska Medicaid reimbursement system in terms of its impact upon nursing home costs. The study was limited to a sample of 40 nursing homes in Nebraska which represents 42% of the total proprietary nursing homes in the state. The sample was limited to those facilities licensed only as an Intermediate Care Facility--I and they had to be receiving some Medicaid revenue. The data were averaged over the period of 1977-79, but the year of analysis corresponded to 1978. Multiple regression analysis was used to measure the effect of the hypothesized independent variables upon two different measures of cost--the average total cost per patient day and the average variable cost per patient day. In the first regression model 76% of the variance was explained and 71% was explained in the second equation. The results of this analysis are basically consistent with the findings of other studies and indicate that the number of staffing hours, patient mix, facility age, administrator experience and administrative intensity are significant determinants of nursing home costs. The most important finding from a policy perspective is that the current retrospective cost-related Medicaid reimbursement system does not provide incentives for minimizing costs. In fact, the present system encourages administrators to overutilize resources and charge higher prices. Considerable evidence exists which suggests that a prospective system would encourage a more efficient allocation of resources without adversely affecting the quality of care. Given the increase in the state's share of the total Medicaid budget, it would appear that a change to a prospective system is critical in order to maintain the financial accessibility to nursing home care by all Nebraska residents.