Bilateral and regional trade elasticities of the EU

The traditional way of assessing the impact of currency depreciation and income on the trade balance has been to estimate the elasticity of trade volume to relative prices and income. The previous studies examine the problems associated with using aggregate data. The recent studies rely on bilateral data, yet another problem is that data for export and import prices are not available. Thus, this study proposes an alternative way of assessing the impact of currency depreciation by using the real exchange rate and the impact of income on bilateral trade. The models are applied between the EU and its major trading partners. Furthermore, the analysis includes the six major trading regions along side the eight major trading countries for 1980–2007, on the quarterly basis. This article uses the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach advocated by Pesaran and Pesaran (1997). Our results indicate a higher importance of income compared to the real exchange rate in defined bilateral export and import demand functions. In addition, the applied CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests confirm the stability of estimated coefficients in most cases.     

Estimating the natural rates in a simple New Keynesian framework

The time-varying natural rate of interest and output and the implied medium-term inflation target for the US economy are estimated over the period 1983–2005. The estimation is conducted within the New Keynesian framework using Bayesian and Kalman-filter estimation techniques. With the model-consistent estimate of the output gap, we get a small weight on the backward-looking component of the New Keynesian Phillips curve—similar to what is obtained in studies which use labor share of income as a driver for inflation (e.g., Galí, Eur Econ Rev 45(7):1237–1270, 2001; Eur Econ Rev 47(4):759–760, 2003). The turning points of the business cycle are nevertheless broadly consistent with those of CBO/NBER. We find considerable variation in the natural rate of interest while the inflation target has been close to 2% over the last decade.     

Testing for structural breaks in panel varying coefficient models: with an application to OECD health expenditure

In this article, we propose a model selection approach for testing structural breaks in a semiparametric panel varying coefficient model. Monte Carlo evidence shows that the proposed model selection approach performs well in finite sample settings. Applying the method to an empirical data, we find evidence of structural breaks in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) health expenditure data by allowing for income elasticity to be state (income)-dependent. The relationship between health expenditure and income is subject to two types of structural changes: smooth changes over income and structural breaks in the time dimension. The findings hold for both foreign exchange rate-converted and Purchasing Power Parity-converted expenditure and GDP.     

Hidden patterns in exchange rate regime choice

There have been a number of empirical attempts to account for variation in exchange rate regime choice, but these attempts point in several directions and are not made sense of easily. One reason for the differences among studies is that standard statistical techniques are unable to identify the nonlinear and contingent relationships among the factors that influence the choice of exchange rate regime. This article utilizes a statistical technique that reveals complex nonlinear interactions among variables. The analysis reveals that the influence of past inflation acts to condition the influence of labor market rigidity and that political stability plays a key role for both high and low inflation countries.     

Bequests,gifts, and education: links between intergenerational transfers

We study the channels parents use to make transfers to their children. First, we focus on the relationship between investments in education and property transfers. Second, we turn to how property transfers are divided between inter vivos gifts and bequests. We use a Swedish dataset that is superior to previously used data as it contains information on both gifts and inheritances received from parents. We estimate models for the probabilities of having university education, receiving gifts, and receiving inheritances. In addition, we estimate models for gift and inheritance amounts. We find that the more resources parents have, the higher the likelihood of transfers, and that the correlation between receiving inter vivos gifts and inheritances is very high. Finally, women are more likely to have university education and to receive gifts, and daughters receive gifts of larger amounts than sons, although there are no differences in terms of inheritance.     

Does a factor Phillips curve help? An evaluation of the predictive power for U.S. inflation

This article evaluates various models’ predictive power for U.S. inflation rate using a simulated out-of-sample forecasting framework. The starting point is the traditional unemployment Phillips curve. We show that a factor Phillips curve model is superior to the traditional Phillips curve, and its performance is comparable to other factor models. We find that a factor AR model is superior to the factor Phillips curve model, and is the best bivariate or factor model at longer horizons. Finally, we investigate a New Keynesian Phillips curve model, and find that its forecasting performance dominates all other models at the longer horizons.     

Illustrating the importance of Austrian business cycle theory: A reply to Murphy,Barnett, and Block; A call for quantitative study

Murphy et al. (2009) criticize Young’s (2005) test of Austrian business cycle theory (ABCT) using US industry-level quarterly job reallocation data and the federal funds rate as a monetary policy indicator. I argue that not only are Murphy et al.’s specific criticisms misguided; more importantly, they all but completely rule out the type of empirical study that Young (2005) advocates: specifically, one that (1) is quantitative and distinguishes between statistical and economic significance and (2) attempts to exploit a hypothesis that is both a prediction of ABCT and not a prediction of competing monetary theories of the cycle. I argue that empirical studies embodying (1) and (2) are critical to ABCT as a research program. Furthermore, I review the existing econometric studies of ABCT from the last 10 years and conclude that there is much room for improvement along these lines.     

Specialists and citizens all: A reply to Boettke,Koppl, and Holcombe

Peter Boettke (2007) argues that economists need not act pluralistically in order for pluralism to thrive in the marketplace of economic ideas. From a market process perspective, Boettke sees intellectual diversity and openness as catallactic outputs, not inputs—emergent by-products of academic specialization and trade. To expect individual scholars to behave in a pluralistic manner is unnecessary and “completely inappropriate” since it detracts from their central task: “to commit themselves to an approach and pursue it doggedly, even in the face of great doubt and resistance by one’s peers” (Boettke 2007). This paper proposes a Smithian revision of Boettke’s position. The author argues that scholarly pluralism is best understood as a constitutional rule of academic life—a virtue ethic that promotes learning and intellectual freedom by mitigating tyranny and autarky in the republic of science. Drawing from the writings of Adam Smith, Friedrich Hayek, Deirdre McCloskey, Bruce Caldwell, James Buchanan, Don Lavoie, and Boettke himself, the author argues that scholarly pluralism has been, and continues to be, a necessary condition for the flourishing of Austrian economists as free, responsible, efficacious thinkers.     

Distinction or dichotomy: Rethinking the line between thymology and praxeology

The aim of this paper is to critically reexamine Ludwig Mises’ attempt to separate the psychological aspects of understanding (thymology) from the “science of action” (praxeology). There are, we contend, legitimate distinctions between theory, on the one hand, and, on the other, psychology or history. But, there is no need to dichotomize them from one another in the way Mises sometimes did.     

Appropriate contract durations in the German markets for on-line reserve capacity

This paper explores the economic implications of different contract durations in markets for on-line (primary and secondary) reserve capacity in Germany with the crucial feature of separate markets for spot energy and reserve capacity provision. The analysis is based on an equilibrium model developed by Just and Weber (Energy Econo 30:3198–3221, 2008) for reserve markets. It reveals the implicit trade-off for the bidders and implicit interdependencies between the reserve and the spot markets. Even if the markets are not explicitly coordinated, they are interrelated through the dispatch decisions of the power plant owners. The paper concludes that the current German reserve market design is inefficient and should be improved. The results clearly show that shorter periods (with resulting lower variations in overall electricity demand) lead to more efficient dispatch and market results. Not only prices in the reserve capacity markets are expected to be lower, but also spot market prices. As these benefits can be partially reaped by owners of large generation portfolios also under longer contract durations, it discriminates against smaller generation companies and can potentially deter market participation. Further, the paper takes a broader perspective and discusses security concerns against shorter contract durations. It is shown that the opportunity costs character of the reserve market implies sufficient incentives for supplying online reserve capacity. The concerns do not appear to be predominant and it should be possible to manage them appropriately.