Common trends and common cycles in regional crime

This paper uses the Vahid and Engle (Journal of Applied Econometrics, 8, 341-360, 1993) common trend - common cycle approach to model the dynamics of regional crime rates in England over the period 1975–1996. The evidence indicates the existence of common trends and common cycles in regional crime rates. This result is exploited to examine the system-wide effects of shocks emanating in a particular region.     

Models of crisis management: an evaluation of their value for strategic planning in the international travel industry

Tourism is particularly prone to external shocks, which by their nature are unpredictable and need to be addressed through effective crisis management processes. The paper reviews the literature relating to crisis management in tourism and identifies and briefly critiques several models that have been developed to help managers in their strategic planning for such contingencies. The terrorist attacks of ‘9/11’ are used as an exemplar of the type of external shock that can lead to crisis if travel industry managers fail to take immediate and decisive action. This paper discusses the reactions of leading UK based tour operators to the terrorist attacks and a case study is presented to examine the reaction of a particular company to ‘9/11’ and to review the ‘turnaround’ strategies used. The crisis management process model is compared and contrasted with the steps actually undertaken at the company. It is evident that there are wider lessons for the travel industry including the need to: integrate crisis management with strategic planning processes, prepare detailed contingency plans, define decisional roles and responsibilities, and to retain a degree of flexibility. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Satisfying the basics: reflections from a consumer perspective of attractions management at the Millennium Dome,London

The Millennium Dome, London, was supposed to be the centrepiece of UK celebrations marking the start of the twenty‐first century. Unwittingly, it also emerged as the centrepiece of much media negativity and scrutiny — for the full length of its (projected) 1 year of opening. Four years after the doors closed, and with the perspective of time, this study reflects on the Millennium Dome as a case study of visitor attractions management — with data drawn from the consumer perspective at the time of opening. The focus of the primary research is on the satisfaction of visitors to the Millennium Dome. This was carried out when the attraction was weathering the media storm following its opening. Both quantitative and qualitative data was gathered from 530 exit questionnaires and 350 qualitative interviews. The quantitative data revealed visitor assessments of the experience of the Millennium Dome as a whole, and their assessments of its constituent parts (zones). The findings of the qualitative interviews led to the construction of a typology of meanings for visitors to the Millennium Dome. Even though time has elapsed since closure, both the quantitative and the qualitative findings still have a wider application in the interpretation of the visitor experience in attractions. Recommendations at the time indicated a need for management to focus on ‘the basics’ of the visitor experience with the addendum that a failure to do so could detract from ‘the most amazing day out ever’ or, indeed, ‘a very special day’ — and to ensure a closer match between marketing expectations and the reality of the experience. Reflection has not altered such often neglected but fundamental tenets. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Consumption norms,trickle-down and the video/microwave syndrome

A new method is presented for investigating empirically the presence or not of consumption norms in the ownership of durables amongst different socioeconomic groups (although the method is more generally applicable to any situation in which a number of characteristics, and not just durables, may be acquired in a specific sequence). In order to illustrate the method, some results are presented for the ownership of durables as sampled by the National Readership Survey for 1985 and 1990. As a further application of the method, particular attention is paid to the changing incidence of ownership of videos and microwaves. Both theoretically and empirically, the trickle-down model of consumer choice is critically assessed and found to be wanting.     

Quality perceptions under evolving information conditions: Implications for diet,health and consumer satisfaction

Consumers’ perception of, and satisfaction with, fruit quality is an important issue for both public policy and commercial reasons. However, because of information problems, consumers cannot easily choose fruits of a quality most likely to satisfy their preferences and health needs. The research reported here employed an experimental auction method to test perceptions of fruit quality by evaluating the willingness to pay (WTP) of consumers for five different varieties of soft citrus under three different information conditions: visual inspection of the fruit before peeling; visual inspection after peeling; and after consumption. Significant differences were found in valuations of the different varieties as consumers gained information. Conclusions are drawn about the value of the methodology and the results themselves, and implications are inferred for policy and for growers and traders. It is argued that product information should be oriented not just towards nutritional education but also towards increasing the pleasure of healthy eating.     

Ratio Analysis Using Rank Transformation

This paper presents an alternate method for transforming financial ratios. Ratios are ranked and scaled into a uniform distribution with boundaries between 0 and 1. Conceptually, we suggest that this method solves a number of methodological problems associated with ratios, including constrained choice of regression models, ratio outliers, negative ratios, and non-normal distributions. Scaled ranks of financial ratios are also conceptually appealing because they appear to capture comparative ordinal data about cross-sectional relationships between firms.The study empirically tests scaled rank transformations by examining the association of the transformations with stock returns. Results show that models using relative ranked accounting ratios have more explanatory and predictive power than untransformed, log-transformed and square-root transformed ratios.     

APPLYING BETA‐TYPE SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS TO HEALTHCARE COST REGRESSIONS

This paper extends the literature on modelling healthcare cost data by applying the generalised beta of the second kind (GB2) distribution to English hospital inpatient cost data. A quasi‐experimental design, estimating models on a sub‐population of the data and evaluating performance on another sub‐population, is used to compare this distribution with its nested and limiting cases. While for these data the beta of the second kind (B2) distribution and generalised gamma (GG) distribution outperform the GB2, our results illustrate that the GB2 can be used as a device for choosing among competing parametric distributions for healthcare cost data. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Small firms and e-business: cautiousness, contingency and cost-benefit

This paper examines how e-business affects small firms in supply chains. Research in four UK supply chain cases, assistive/medical technology, construction, computer consumables and apparel, indicate widening gaps between large and small firm investment and strategy for exploitation of e-business. Existing models of e-business operationalisation are critically evaluated; and their appropriateness in providing insight and guidance is reflected on. While each model individually provides some useful insights, none are appropriate for examining small firm take up of e-business. Therefore a new framework is developed based on three key issues—cautiousness, contingency and cost-benefit.     

The diffusion of successive generations of a technology: A more general model

In many cases of technological development, successive generations of a technology evolve, each more efficient than its predecessor. It has been assumed when modeling and forecasting the adoption of these technologies that the market reaction to each generation was similar. Using the terminology of the Bass model, this similarity is encapsulated in the assumption that the coefficients of innovation and imitation are constant. New data for two and three generations of mobile telephone technology from eleven countries are modeled. The modeling framework used—simultaneous estimation for successive generations using a full information maximum likelihood procedure—demonstrates that, in most cases, the hypothesis of constant coefficients can be rejected. Use of a model with changing coefficients is shown to considerably improve forecasting performance. These results were reinforced by analysis of data for four generations of IBM mainframes.