Predicting recessions: Some evidence for Germany

Predicting Recessions: Some Evidence for Germany. - This paper assesses the information content and performance of selected series as indicators and predictors of recessions in Germany. The series are a composite leading indicator, a business confidence measure, and seven financial variables. The estimation of in- and out-of-sample probabilities of recessions based on probit analyses indicates that in the past the yield spread has been the most promising indicator, with a lead time to recession of around four quarters. However, the performance of the yield spread may be reduced in the future if yield spreads are more influenced by international rather than domestic factors.     

A Bootstrap Method To Test If Study Dropouts Are Missing Randomly

Withdrawing from a longitudinal investigation is a common problem in epidemiological research. This paper describes a nonparametric method, based on a bootstrap approach, for assessing whether dropouts are missed at random. The basic idea is to compare scores of dropouts and non-dropouts at different assessments using a weighted nonparametric test statistic.A Monte Carlo investigation evaluates the comparative power of the test to violations from populations normality, using three commonly occurring distributions. The test proposed here is more powerful than the parametric counterpart under distributions with extreme skews.The method is applied to a longitudinal community-based study investigating mental disorders. It is found that dropouts did not differ from the other subjects with respect to two psychological variables, although chi-square tests gave some other impressions.     

I. Allgemeine wirstchaftslehre

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Produktionspotenzial—Schätzprobleme und ausgewählte Ergebnisse

Die Konjunktur- und Wachstumsanalyse sowie die geldpolitischen Empfehlungen stützen sich unter anderem auf die Sch?tzung des Produktionspotenzials und der Produktionslücke. Welche Sch?tzverfahren werden genutzt? Wo liegen die Vor- und Nachteile der einzelnen Methoden?