Approximating Large Diversified Portfolios

This paper considers a financial market with asset price dynamics modeled by a system of lognormal stochastic differential equations. A one‐dimensional stochastic differential equation for the approximate evolution of a large diversified portfolio formed by these assets is derived. This identifies the asymptotic dynamics of the portfolio as being a lognormal diffusion. Consequentially an efficient way for computing probabilities, derivative prices, and other quantities for the portfolio are obtained. Additionally, the asymptotic strong and weak orders of convergence with respect to the number of assets in the portfolio are determined.     

Consumer response to child tax credit

This article uses micro-level data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX) to study consumers?? spending responses to the child tax credit. The article provides one test of the permanent-income hypothesis (PIH) that infers that temporary changes in income have little effect on consumer spending, at the initiation of the child tax credit in 1997, and a second PIH test when the credit was increased in 2003. The evidence supports the PIH in both 1997 and 2003, even using three different proxies for liquidity-constrained households. Separate from any PIH implications, our findings suggest the child tax credit did not provide a short-term consumption stimulus in either of the time periods studied. Our results therefore cast some doubt on whether this type of tax credit should be considered sound fiscal policy.     

Do components of smooth tests of fit have diagnostic properties?

Smooth goodness of fit tests were introduced by Neyman (1937). They can be regarded as a compromise between globally consistent (“omnibus”) tests of fit and procedures having high power in the direction of a specific alternative. It is commonly believed that components of smooth tests like, e.g., skewness and kurtosis measures in the context of testing for normality, have special diagnostic properties in case of rejection of a hypothesisH ₀ in the sense that they constitute direct measures of the kind of departure fromH ₀. Recent years, however, have witnessed a complete change of attitude towards the diagnostic capabilities of skewness and kurtosis measures in connection with normality testing. In this paper, we argue that any component of any smooth test of fit is strictly non-diagnostic when used conventionally. However, a proper rescaling of components does indeed achieve the desired “directed diagnosis”.     

Bridging the gap between foresight and market research: Integrating methods to assess the economic potential of nanotechnology

This paper discusses how to bridge the gap between foresight research oriented to the long-term, and traditional market research oriented to the medium to short term, when applied to an early stage of a technology's life cycle. It proposes using an integrating approach, i.e. a combination of methods and both foresight and traditional market research. A mix of complementary methods for the acquisition and analysis of data is presented in a case study. This helps to overcome the deficits of some qualitative foresight methods and quantitative methods often used in traditional market research and allows us to examine research results from the different methods applied both on their own and as a group. In the absence of a single fully-fledged and accepted economic approach, this paper argues that combined market research and foresight modules are the best possible approach for analyzing the economic potential of emerging technologies like nanotechnology. In the future, similar applications of such market foresight modules may be useful, for example, as elements of foresight. They will also be useful in studies of emerging technologies (e.g. converging technologies, cognitive science and Web 2.0) where traditional market research does not produce a realistic market assessment.     

Die nächste Ausgabe von Controlling &; Management erscheint am 13.08.07

Vorschau / 4/07

Die n?chste Ausgabe von Controlling & Management erscheint am 13.08.07     

Modeling corner solutions with panel data: Application to the industrial energy demand in France

This paper provides an empirical application of Lee and Pitts (1986) approach to the problem of corner solutions in the case of panel data. This model deals with corner solutions in a manner consistent with the firm behavior theory while controlling for unobserved heterogeneity. In this model, energy demand at industrial plant level is the result of a discrete choice of the type of the energy to be consumed and a continuous choice that defines the level of demand. The econometric model is, essentially, an endogenous switching regime model which requires the evaluation of multivariate probability integrals. We estimate the random effect model by maximum likelihood using a panel of industrial French plants from the paper and pulp industry. We calculate empirical price elasticities of energy demand from the model. We also study the effects on energy demand of an environmental policy aimed at reducing CO₂ emissions. The authors are grateful to the Institut Français de eEnergie for its financial support and to the SESSI for providing the data. We would like to thank two anonymous referees for useful comments and suggestions. the usual disclaimer applies.     

Capitalization of Farm Policy Benefits and the Rate of Return to Policy-Created Assets: Evidence from California Dairy Quota

The rate of return to ownership of California dairy quota is about 27% per year—well above that of typical financial assets, but in line with other measured returns to agricultural quotas. Ownership of dairy quota does not contribute positively to total variation of typical portfolios, including those of dairy farm assets, and so contributes little or no portfolio risk. A plausible alternative hypothesis for the high rate of return is that quota owners see significant risk of policy change that would reduce future quota values. That is, they face default risk in quota ownership.     

6+5-Protektionismus im Fußball

Ohne Zusammenfassung Norbert Berthold ist Inhaber des Lehrstuhls für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Wirtschaftsordnung und Sozialpolitik, an der Universit?t Würzburg und Mitglied des wissenschaftlichen Beirats beim Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Technologie     

Die Finanzwirtschaft des Fürstentums Liechtenstein unter Berücksichtigung des vom Landtag am 30.1.1961 beschlossenen neuen Steuergesetzes

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

IX. Geld und kapital

Ohne Zusammenfassung