The next forty years : A reprise

The following paper is a republication of the introductory pages to Norman Macrae's book, The Next Forty Years, published by The Economist in 1972. Each year, Norman Macrae, deputy-editor of The Economist, researched and wrote a lengthy survey on a subject about which he claimed little, if any, expert knowledge. In 1971 Macrae tried to turn himself into a business futurologist. Based on interviews with industrialists and using relevant literature about multinational corporations and business, Macrae attempted to forecast the most logical course for international business trends and organization between 1972 and 2012, and especially 1972–1992. Some of his views were highly unconventional, and deliberately so. More than 20 years later, his views still often seem controversial, but are as relevant as ever.     

Time on the Market and Selling Price

This study is primarily an analysis of tradeoff between selling time and price, both on a nominal and real basis. Sellers are seen as desiring to maximize their discounted real selling price and trading off the nominal selling price with expected selling time. The time a property remains on the market is important, not only because of its reflection on price, but also because of its possible reflection on the issue of submarket equilibrium—an assumption in most urban price studies. The empirical results of this study shed light on how similar studies can easily misinterpret the implications of time on the market on price and how further work may be improved.     

A model of trade and growth for the developing world

This paper describes structure, assumptions and projection results of the SIMLINK model. The purpose of this modelistosimulate the trade linkages between the developed and developing world. By taking the growth expectations of the OECD countries and the price of petroleum as a starting point, the model estimates the price and volume of a series of commodities important in LDC exports. The export earnings for seven LDC regions are estimated from the commodity projections, and combined with a predetermined estimate of capital inflows to calculate import capacity. A simple growth model for each region then determines the import constrained growth rate for that region.     

New Product Idea Activities in Large Technology Based Firms

In a previous article, Norman McGuinness developed a model of idea generation processes used by small firms. Here he reports similar patterns for larger firms but adds a stage he labels problem definition. Since his model describes the progress of ideas through various predevelopment stages, this article yields additional insight into better management practices. It emphasizes that search involves a system of social activities within the organization and also distinguishes between planned and unplanned search, structured versus unstructured procedures and top-down versus bottom-up orientation.     

Technological change and factor mix over the product cycle: A model of dynamic comparative advantage

This paper presents a simple dynamic model of how, for a given set of factor prices, the optimizing mix of factor inputs changes over a product cycle, and of how (as a result) comparative advantage in international trade shifts. The model is designed to be consistent with, and to explain, the following stylized facts. When a new technology comes into being, follow-on improvements of the original basic design tend to occur at a rapid rate. Opportunities for improvement and the nonroutinized nature of the production process put a premium on flexibility and insight. As the technology settles down, the premium placed on problem solving ability declines, obsolescence of equipment occurs less rapidly, and unskilled workers and machinery are substituted for skilled workers.     

Lead time reduction through ICT application in the footwear industry: A case study

This paper analyses some relevant supply chain management issues for Italian firms operating in the footwear industry. The analysis is carried out on representative firms, located in a specialized regional district with a high density of shoe manufacturing companies. Companies were experiencing substantial problems in the management of supplier relationships, as well as in the commercial/distributive channel. Specifically, synchronization issues in the logistics pipeline were weakening firms’ lead time performances.The case study presented strives to highlight the critical points in the set up of the supply chain management programme, as well as the main results obtained. The case study also shows that the adoption of tailored Information and Communication Technology (ICT) tools has the potential to save significant lead time in supplier/buyer relationships. From the case study, generalities can be drawn and transferred to the footwear industry.     

Investing for the Long-run in European Real Estate

We calculate optimal portfolio choices for a long-horizon, risk-averse investor who diversifies among European stocks, bonds, real estate, and cash, when excess asset returns are predictable. Simulations are performed for scenarios involving different risk aversion levels, horizons, and statistical models capturing predictability in risk premia. Importantly, under one of the scenarios, the investor takes into account the parameter uncertainty implied by the use of estimated coefficients to characterize predictability. We find that real estate ought to play a significant role in optimal portfolio choices, with weights between 12 and 44%. Under plausible assumptions, the welfare costs of either ignoring predictability or restricting portfolio choices to traditional financial assets only are found to be in the order of 150–300 basis points per year. These results are robust to changes in the benchmarks and in the statistical framework.