The demographic transition: causes and consequences

This paper develops the theoretical foundations and the testable implications of the various mechanisms that have been proposed as possible triggers for the demographic transition. Moreover, it examines the empirical validity of each of the theories and their significance for the understanding of the transition from stagnation to growth. The analysis suggests that the rise in the demand for human capital in the process of development was the main trigger for the decline in fertility and the transition to modern growth     

Will a government find it financially easier to neutralize a looming protest if more groups are involved?

We study a policy response to an increase in post-merger social stress. If a merger of groups of people is viewed as a revision of their social space, then the merger alters people’s comparators and increases social stress: the social stress of a merged population is greater than the sum of the levels of social stress of the constituent populations when apart. We use social stress as a proxy measure for looming social protest. As a response to the post-merger increase in social stress, we consider a policy aimed at reversing the negative effect of the merger by bringing the social stress of the merged population back to the sum of the pre-merger levels of social stress of the constituent populations when apart. We present, in the form of an algorithm, a cost-effective policy response which is publicly financed and does not reduce the incomes of the members of the merged population. We then compare the financial cost of implementing such a policy when the merger involves more or fewer groups. We show that the cost may fall as the number of merging groups rises.     

Social networks and opportunity recognition: A cultural comparison between Taiwan and the United States

This paper investigates the moderating effect of national cultural contexts on the relationship between social networks and opportunity recognition. Data obtained from Taiwan and the United States support the proposition that cultural contexts, specifically the individualism‐collectivism dimension, moderate the relationship between tie strength, structural holes, and opportunity recognition. Results indicate that in the United States, tie strength is negatively associated with opportunity identification and structural holes are positively associated with opportunity identification; whereas in Taiwan we find the opposite. The results also show that the interaction effect between bridging ties and tie strength on opportunity recognition varies depending on the cultural context. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Work Effort, Moderation in Expulsion, and Illegal Migration

Illegal migrants supply a valuable productive input: effort. But their status as illegals means that these migrants face a strictly positive probability of expulsion. A return to their country of origin entails reduced earnings when the wage at origin is lower than the wage at destination. This prospect induces illegal migrants to exert more work effort than comparable workers who face no such prospect. The lower the probable, alternative earnings, the harsher the penalty that illegal migrants will be subjected to upon their return, for a given probability of expulsion, and the higher the level of effort they will exert at destination. While the home‐country wage that awaits the illegal migrants upon their return is exogenous to the host country, the probability of their return is not. Given the home‐country wage, a higher probability of expulsion will induce illegal migrants to supply more effort. Hence, different combinations of probabilities of expulsion and home‐country wages yield the same level of effort. Thus, variation in the extent to which receiving countries undertake measures aimed at apprehending and expelling illegal migrants can be attributed not to characteristics of the illegal migrants themselves but to a feature that pertains to the illegal migrants’ country of origin.     

The Intergenerational Overlap and Human Capital Formation*

A new microeconomic explanation for the divergent experiences of economies in forming human capital is proposed. It is suggested that the positive effect of a longer life expectancy on human capital formation arises from two separate effects: a life‐expectancy effect and a prolonged intergenerational overlap effect. It is argued that the duration of the overlap between generations and the associated parental support can affect the marginal cost of human capital formation and hence its level: parental support is cheaper than market financing. The strong correlation between the formation of human capital and life expectancy is thus attributed not merely to a higher marginal benefit arising from a longer payback period but also to a lower marginal cost arising from a prolonged intergenerational overlap. Conditions are provided under which a longer overlap results in a higher level of per capita output.     

Adverse selection and the market for annuities

Adverse selection is often blamed for the malfunctioning of the annuities market. We simulate the impact of adverse selection on the consumption allocation of annuitants under alternative parameter values, and explore the resulting welfare implications. We show that, for most parameter values, the welfare losses associated with equilibriums that are subject to adverse selection correspond to a loss of wealth of around one percent in a first-best equilibrium. These losses are smaller than the corresponding losses associated with equilibriums with no access to an annuity market by an order of magnitude of ten. The existence of substitutes for annuities such as a bequest motive or a social security system intensifies the adverse selection but reduces its welfare impact.

European Monetary Integration and Aggregate Relative Deprivation: The Dull Side of the Shiny Euro

Drawing on the premise that the integration of economies revises people's social space and their comparators, we quantify social stress by aggregate relative deprivation, ARD; we calculate the effect of monetary mergers on ARD; and we document the validity of the superadditivity property of ARD for successive adoptions of a common currency by European countries. One feature of monetary unification, which replaces diverse currencies with a common currency, is that it brings about a change in the comparison environment, expanding the reference space of individuals in a given country to encompass individuals from the joining countries. Overall, calculations regarding six enlargements of the Economic and Monetary Union between 1999 and 2011 reveal an increase of ARD on six occasions when we hold incomes constant, and on five when we take into consideration changes in incomes. In addition, we observe an uneven distribution of the costs and benefits from monetary integration among the participating countries when these costs and benefits are measured in terms of ARD.     

International migration and “educated unemployment”

This paper provides a novel explanation of “educated unemployment”, which is a salient feature of the labor markets in a number of developing countries. In a simple job-search framework we show that “educated unemployment” is caused by the prospect of international migration, that is, by the possibility of a “brain drain”. In addition, the analysis shows that a developing country may end up with more educated workers despite the brain drain and educated unemployment.     

Generic Competition in the US Pharmaceutical Industry

We develop a simultaneous equations estimation framework to understand the interactions among generic entry, prices, and market shares. We base our estimates on a panel data sample of 40 brand‐name drugs that first experienced generic competition during the period July 1992–January 1998. We find that generic share and price are simultaneously determined, while the number of generic entrants is a key determinant of generic market share and the generic‐to‐brand price ratio. In addition, we find generic competition to be particularly intense for blockbuster drugs, which experience significantly more generic entrants, price erosion, and generic penetration than other drugs.     

On the different styles of large shareholders’ activism

This paper extends Noe’s (Rev Financial Studies 15:289–317, 2002) model of large shareholder activism in two directions. First, it considers a framework in which large shareholders can choose not only when to monitor, but also how intensively they want to monitor the firm. Second, it considers the impact of laws and regulations by introducing a governance quality parameter that makes monitoring more cost effective. The model yields a new and rich characterization of activism. We find that share wealth (ownership concentration) induces monitoring for higher firm value through more frequent monitoring with unchanged intensity. Cash wealth motivates activism for trading gains, not higher firm value, through less frequent monitoring coupled with higher intensity. We also find that better governance leads to higher firm value through more frequent but less intense activism. When asymmetries within the group of large shareholders exist, the model predicts that the larger/wealthier/more efficient shareholders are more active. These results are broadly consistent with the empirical evidence.