Project Valuation With Time-Varying Cash Flows: A Bayesian Approach

This article investigates the valuation of a project when the distributions of cash flows vary over time. The decision maker is assumed to be a Bayesian decision maker under uncertainty. Using the dynamic programming principle of backward induction and assuming that the capital asset pricing model is valid in each time period, we derive the project's valuation formulas and systematic risks, and investigate their characteristics. Our valuation formulas embed a Bayesian learning effect and differ from the traditional textbook capital budgeting formulas.     

Alternative utility functions: review,analysis and comparison

The paper reviews the development of von Neumann and Morgenstern (vNM) utility theory. Kahneman and Tversky’s (KT’s) prospect theory is introduced. The vNM utility function is compared and contrasted with KT’s value function. We prove the uniqueness of two popular utility functions. First, we show that all power utility functions possess constant RRA. And, we show that all exponential utility functions have constant ARA. The paper concludes by discussing applications, strengths and weaknesses of various utility functions.     

Jobs requiring a capacity for engineering systems thinking (CEST): Selection using an interest inventory

Systems thinking is recognized as a critical ability for engineers who take a leading role in complex projects. Identifying those engineers with better systems‐thinking capabilities is critical in many projects and organizations and enables organizations and project managers to select and place the most suitable engineers for jobs requiring a Capacity for Engineering Systems Thinking (CEST). However, up until now, no tool aimed at assessing individuals' capacity for engineering systems thinking has ever been developed. This paper presents principles for developing an interest questionnaire aimed at selecting engineers for jobs requiring systems thinking as well as preliminary results regarding the tool's reliability and validity.     

Learning from Trading

The incorporation of diverse information into asset prices isempirically examined in an actual securities market with multiplerounds of trade. Using prices of Israeli index and nominal bondsof equal maturity, we calculate implied expectations of inflationthat has already occurred but for which the official statistichas not yet been announced. Learning is defined as the convergenceof these expectations to the actual level of inflation in theperiod after the end of the month but before the announcementof the official statistic. We find that the variance of theinflation expectation errors decreases with trading days inthis period. The decline in the variance suggests that investorslearn, by repeatedly observing prices, about the distributionof other investors' information. We also find a positive relationbetween the dispersion of relative price changes and the sizeof the inflation-expectation errors on the first round of trade.The correlation diminishes as investors learn about the distributionof inflation information in the economy.     

Confidence Intervals for the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve in the Presence of Ignorable Missing Data

Receiver operating characteristic curves are widely used as a measure of accuracy of diagnostic tests and can be summarised using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Often, it is useful to construct a confidence interval for the AUC; however, because there are a number of different proposed methods to measure variance of the AUC, there are thus many different resulting methods for constructing these intervals. In this article, we compare different methods of constructing Wald‐type confidence interval in the presence of missing data where the missingness mechanism is ignorable. We find that constructing confidence intervals using multiple imputation based on logistic regression gives the most robust coverage probability and the choice of confidence interval method is less important. However, when missingness rate is less severe (e.g. less than 70%), we recommend using Newcombe's Wald method for constructing confidence intervals along with multiple imputation using predictive mean matching.     

The effect of human resource management practices on the perceptions of organizational and market performance of the firm

The purpose of our study is to extend the emerging empirical literature on the firm‐level impact of human resource management practices. Results based on a national sample of organizations from private and public sectors in Israel indicate that these practices have a significant impact on both the perceived organizational and market performance of the organization. The single independent variable found to be statistically significant in affecting perceived organizational performance was training practices. In the case of perceived market performance, we found that, in addition to training practices, employee selection practices also significantly affected the perceived market performance.¹ © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Quality Management: A Key Process in the Service Industries

Project management is a developing area in the service industry, as more unique and customer-tailored services are being developed. This paper presents a benchmarking research study, aimed at improving project planning capabilities in the service industry. Based on data collected from 275 project managers from several industries, including 79 from the service sector, project management strengths and weaknesses within the service industry were investigated. It was found that project managers from the service sector excel in cost and procurement planning processes, compared to project managers from other industries. On the other hand, project managers from the service sector achieve the worst score in quality management processes. Moreover, in the service industry quality management was found to have the most significant impact on project success. Hence, managers in the service sector would benefit from acquiring proper knowledge and techniques relating to quality management in the planning phase of projects. It was also found that the success level of projects performed in the service sector depends most on the qualifications of the project manager. A project manager in the service sector gets very little support from the organisation itself. Support processes should focus on the main weaknesses of the service industry, mainly ‘developing project management procedures’ and ‘increasing the extent of training of their project managers’. The paper presents and analyses strengths and weaknesses of the service industry in project planning and suggests a detailed roadmap for improvement.