Auditor Expertise and the Estimation of Dollar Error in Accounts

A major task that auditors undertake in formulating their audit opinion is to estimate the dollar error that might exist in accounts in light of their evaluation of internal control strengths and weaknesses. The research that has been undertaken to evaluate the quality of auditor performance on this task, however, has produced mixed results. The current study tries to overcome some theoretical limitations and measurement limitations that have undermined prior studies. Forty practising auditors rated their abilities on fourteen characteristics derived from a model of expertise. They then undertook an experiment where they judged the extent of dollar error that might exist in the inventories of a manufacturing company. They based their judgments on working papers provided to them that contained, among other information, an evaluation of the company's internal control system. An estimate of the 'true' dollar error in the inventories was calculated using a program that simulated the company's internal control and accounting system. This estimate was then used to calculate the accuracy of the auditors' judgments. Their ratings on the expertise characteristics were not related to their judgment accuracy. Their ratings were related, however, to their confidence in their judgment accuracy. Auditors who considered themselves more expert at the task were more confident in their judgment accuracy but they were, in fact, no more accurate than auditors who considered themselves to be less expert at the task.     

Incorporating sustainability criteria into credit risk management

Does a commercial debtor's economic, environmental and social performance in terms of sustainability affect its credit risk rating? Does adding criteria aimed at assessing a lender's environmental, social or sustainability practices provide added value to traditional financial rating criteria? Many analyses have reported that a correlation exists between companies' environmental and their financial performance. We checked out the assertion that it ‘pays to be sustainable’ by analyzing the role that criteria pertaining to sustainability and environmental orientation play in the commercial credit risk management process. Our results show that sustainability criteria can be used to predict the financial performance of a debtor and improve the predictive validity of the credit rating process. We conclude that the sustainability a firm demonstrates influences its creditworthiness as part of its financial performance. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

Gibt es eine indirekte Wirkung von Wahlumfragen?

The question of whether or not the publication of election poll results has an effect on voting behaviour has been raised since the very beginning of survey research. Various hypotheses on the direction of such effects exist, and many studies attempted to test them. However, the most we know is that we lack support for the assumption of a general influence. Rather than looking at direct effects of published poll results on voting behaviour, this paper tries to measure their indirect effects. Using a combination of trend surveys and content analysis, we investigate the effect of survey results on the coverage of the media. We can show that changes in public opinion slightly precede changes in media coverage. We interpret this finding as a possibility of an indirect effect of published poll results, which should encourage further research on this phenomenon.     

Bank Efficiency, Risk-Based Capital, and Real Estate Exposure: The Credit Crunch Revisited

The turbulent real estate market during the early 1990s coincided with the implementation of risk-based capital standards for commercial banks. In this study we use non-parametric linear programming techniques to identify the lost real estate lending due to bank inefficiency. Inefficiency may arise from one of three sources: risk-based capital standards which constrain bank real estate lending, inefficiency stemming from managerial oversight of real estate lending, and scale inefficiency which arises from banks not operating at constant returns to scale. The results indicate that the lost real estate lending associated with risk-based capital standards averaged 2.7% of total bank assets. However, banks could compensate by exercising better managerial oversight of real estate lending and by operating at constant returns to scale.     

Downward wage rigidity and job mobility

Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) we study whether being individually affected by downward wage rigidity has an effect on layoffs, quits and intra-firm mobility. Within a structural empirical model we estimate the individual extent of wage rigidity. This is expressed by the wage sweep-up, which measures by how much individual wage growth increases through the effect of downward wage rigidity when compared to a counterfactual labour market with flexible wage setting. We find robust negative effects of wage sweep-up on quits and layoffs and some evidence for a positive association of wage sweep-up and promotion opportunities. This is consistent with a core-periphery view of the labour force, where a core work force is protected from layoffs and wage cuts and at the same time enjoys good promotion opportunities. On the other side a peripheral work force provides a buffer for adjustment and suffers from both flexible wages, more insecure jobs and less internal promotion opportunities.