Problems in futures research: Delphi and causal cross-impact analysis

The explosive numerical growth of the futures-research community during the last 15 years has been astonishing. Its intellectual growth cannot be said to have advanced at an equal pace. This article looks at the inherent constraints that make reliance on expert judgement an essential part of futures research. Two methods are discussed: Delphi and cross-impact analysis. The latter part of the article examines a new causal cross-impact model that avoids the criticisms that have been levelled at correlational cross-impact analysis.     

How useful is the concept of the natural real rate of interest for monetary policy?

The natural rate of interest plays a key role in Wicksell's‘cumulative process’ as well as in modern monetaryequilibrium models of the business cycle. It constitutes a usefulconcept for the theoretical analysis of the interdependenceof monetary policy and economic fluctuations. However, the usefulnessof this concept for the practice of monetary policy is limited—especiallyowing to the fact that the natural real rate of interest andits law of motion cannot be measured with satisfying precision.     

Cyclical correlations, credit contagion, and portfolio losses

We model aggregate credit losses on large portfolios of financial positions contracted with firms subject to both cyclical default correlation and direct default contagion processes. Cyclical correlation is due to the dependence of firms on common economic factors. Contagion is associated with the local interaction of firms with their business partners. We provide an explicit normal approximation of the distribution of portfolio losses. We quantify the relation between the variability of global economic fundamentals, strength of local firm interaction, and the fluctuation of losses. We find that cyclical oscillations in fundamentals dominate average losses, while local interaction causes additional fluctuations of losses around their average. The strength of the contagion-induced loss variability depends on the complexity of the business partner network.     

Principled moral reasoning: Is it a viable approach to promote ethical integrity?

In response to recent recommendations for the teaching of principled moral reasoning in business school curricula, this paper assesses the viability of such an approach. The results indicate that, while business students' level of moral reasoning in this sample are like most 18- to 21-year-olds, they may be incapable of grasping the concepts embodied in principled moral reasoning. Implications of these findings are discussed. James Weber is currently an Assistant Professor of Management at Marquette University. He has published articles on managerial values and moral reasoning and the teaching of business ethics in Research in Corporate Social Performance and Policy: Empirical Studies of Business Ethics and Values, International Journal of Value Based Management, Human Relations, and Journal of Business Ethics. Sharon Green is currently an Assistant Professor of Accounting at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Her research emphasizes information processing aspects of decision making in governmental, auditing and educational contexts. Her publications have appeared in Accounting Review and Research in Governmental and Non-Profit Accounting.     

Business Ethics Training: Insights from Learning Theory

This paper explores research in educational psychology and learning theory in a search for insights to enhance business ethics training Useful educational principles uncovered are then applied to the development of an ethics training initiative for sales professionals. The paper concludes with suggestions for future research to help enrich business ethics training.

Armutsmessungen im Zeitverlauf

Die Armut ist in Deutschland zu einem wachsenden Problem geworden. Trotz der aktuellen Konjunktur auf dem Arbeitsmarkt ist damit zu rechnen, dass der 2008 erscheinende dritte Armuts- und Reichtumsbericht der Bundesregierung für 2006 eine Rekordzahl für die Armutsentwicklung meldet. Wie l?sst sich Armut am aussagef?higsten messen? Welche Indikatoren beschreiben neben dem Einkommen die Lebensbedingungen? Dr. Olaf Groh-Samberg, 35, und Dr. Jan Goebel, 36, sind Mitarbeiter in der Abteilung L?ngsschnittstudie Sozio-oekonomisches Panel (SOEP) beim DIW in Berlin.     

Market Coupling and the CWE Project

The article copes with the ongoing effort to establish implicit auctions to allocate transmission capacity on cross-border interconnectors in the power grid. By the means of implicit auctions (in contrast to explicit auctions), cross-border capacities are included in the clearing of local power exchanges. Concerning the day ahead auction, ‘market coupling’ plays an important role. Market coupling connects (formerly often national) electricity markets, simplifying cross-border trade. One of the main drivers of market coupling projects is the pursuit of European market integration i.e. allowing for convenient cross-border trade. The other reason is the perception that explicit auctions of transmission capacity (in addition to energy auctions which are often performed later) do sometimes lead to sub-optimal results. The objective function of market coupling is the maximisation of total welfare of all connected markets. Further to the explanation of different market coupling models (also regarding capacity calculation), the current development in Europe is wrapped up—including the CWE market coupling (Central Western Europe) project. The CWE market coupling is announced to start in fall 2010, coupling the day-ahead electricity markets of Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg and the Netherlands.