Role of Consumer Preferences in an Economic System*

Abstract . This article provides a theoretical model for systematic analysis of interaction of consumer preferences with preferences of producers and of government. The central question of the study is whose preferences are rendered effective and to what extent. A theoretical framework for analysis of diverse economic systems is used to derive preference and opportunity functions of decision-making units on consumption, production, and government sides. This model is broadened by introduction of elements of a theory of change based on the postulates of necessary and sufficient conditions. Galbraith's model is placed analytically between the two extreme ideal types and subjected to a critical analysis.     

Sanctions and the Exchange Rate

Intereconomics - Stabilising the exchange rate allows the Russian government to anchor inflation expectations and support consumption but comes at the cost of the financial repression of domestic...     

Patents, Research Exemption, and the Incentive for Sequential Innovation

We develop a quality ladder model to study the R&D incentive impacts of intellectual property rights with a "research exemption" or "experimental use" provision. The innovation process is sequential and cumulative and takes place alongside production in an infinite-horizon setting. We solve the model under two distinct intellectual property regimes, characterize the properties of the relevant Markov perfect equilibria, and investigate the profit and welfare effects of the research exemption. We find that firms, ex ante , always prefer full patent protection. The welfare ranking of the two intellectual property regimes, on the other hand, depends on the relative magnitudes of the costs of initial innovation and improvements.     

Expected returns on value,growth, and HML

In this paper, I analyze the predictability of returns on value and growth portfolios and examine time variation of the expected value premium. As a primary tool, I use the filtering technique, which accounts for time variation in expected cash flows and explicitly exploits the constraints imposed by the present value relation. I demonstrate that returns on value and growth portfolios are predictable, and the predictability is stronger for growth stocks. Applying the filtering technique to the HML portfolio, I build a novel powerful forecaster for the value premium. The new forecaster appears to be only weakly related to business cycle variables.     

Nominal shocks in monopolistically competitive markets: An experiment

A market experiment examines the capacity of price and information frictions to explain real responses to nominal price shocks. Results indicate that both price and information frictions impede the response to a nominal shock, as predicted by the standard dynamic adjustment models. Observed adjustment delays, however, far exceed predicted levels. Results of a pair of subsequent treatments indicate that a combination of announcing the shock privately to all sellers (rather than publicly) and a failure of many sellers to best respond to their expectations explains the observed adjustment inertia.     

The impact of Universal Service Obligations and International Cross-subsidies on the dispersion of telephone services in developing countries

This paper re-evaluates the telecommunication policies often applied to create regional dispersion of services in developing countries. We observe that failure to consider the complexities of the regional telecommunication systems in creating policies and investment strategies has increased the telecom gap between urban and rural regions worldwide. In particular, the teledensities of rural telecommunications in developing countries have remained very low in spite of support through universal service obligation fees and cross-subsidization from international services. As traditional methods for economic analysis and modeling have failed to identify mechanisms that improve telephone dispersion in these countries, we use a system dynamics modeling approach to deal with complexities of the situation in order to evaluate how Universal Service Obligations (USOs) and International Cross-Subsidy (ICS) policies affect telephone densities. We demonstrate that these policies may be counterproductive due to the structure of the telecom system itself. We also show that, when market-clearing pricing is combined with USOs once the urban telephone density reaches a minimum threshold, the dispersion of rural telecommunications can be considerably improved.     

Spatial random utility model with an application to recreation demand

The paper examines the relevance of unobserved spatial dependence between individual decision-makers in the analysis of discrete choices. To incorporate spatial interdependencies in the behavioral analysis, we propose a spatial random utility model of recreation demand. The model combines the set-theoretic concept of spatial neighborhood, endogeneity of spatial interdependencies, and unobservable individual preferences. Our estimation procedure uses an efficient pseudo maximum likelihood estimator. We apply the model to the study of recreational travel demand in Iowa and evaluate the significance of unobserved spatial interdependencies between individual households in recreational travel choices.