Are Revisions to USDA Crop Production Forecasts Smoothed?

This article uses Nordhaus' framework to determine the efficiency of the revision process for USDA corn and soybean production forecasts over the 1970/1971 through 2004/2005 marketing years. Positive autocorrelation and consistency of directional changes in forecast revisions suggest these forecasts are "smoothed." Evidence is provided that the loss in forecast accuracy due to smoothing is statistically and economically significant in several cases. A conservative bias in farm operators' assessments of yield potential and in the procedure for translating enumerator's information about plant fruit counts into objective yield estimates are identified as plausible sources of smoothing.     

The effect of armed conflict on accumulation of schooling: Results from Tajikistan

This paper uses differences in regional and temporal exposure to the 1992-1998 armed conflict in Tajikistan to study the effect of violent conflict on schooling outcomes. Data on the past damage to a household's residences from the 1999 Tajik Living Standards Survey is used as well as data on the events during the conflict within a conceptual framework that controls for important individual, household and community characteristics. Girls who were of school age during the conflict and lived in affected regions were less likely to complete their mandatory schooling than girls of the same age who lived in the regions relatively unaffected by conflict. The results also indicate that exposure to violent conflict had a large and statistically significant negative effect on the enrollment of girls. No effect of regional and household conflict exposure on education of boys was found. The results are robust to community and household fixed effects, selection into violence and migration.     

Interactions between trade and environmental policies in the Czech Republic

The Czech Republic is obliged to implement pollution charges in accordance with the EU environmental policy. The charges may affect international competitiveness of the country, since they are applied to the domestically produced, but not to the imported commodities. We investigate how such environmental taxation of six main pollutants affects the Czech competitiveness. Using computable general equilibrium modeling with bottom-up approach, we consider a small-open economy with endogenous unemployment and ten types of taxes. A distinction between taxes on products and taxes on production is essential for analysis of a fiscal policy. Emissions reduction is possible in our model either through substitution with less polluting inputs, or a reduction of output, or through technical abatement. The last channel for emission reduction is ignored by other studies. The results show that the imports should not be affected by the tax reform, except for coal. Exports will increase in the non-energy-intensive and the biomass industries, but it will decrease in the chemical, the coal, and the metal industries. The overall effect on the trade balance is slightly negative. We conclude that investments in energy-saving technologies are necessary in order to preserve international competitiveness.     

Cost‐effective strategies to mitigate multiple pollutants in an agricultural catchment in North Central Victoria,Australia

Strategies to reduce phosphorus and sediment yields are identified for two Australian catchments using a nonlinear optimisation model. This provides novel insight into the cost‐effective management of dual pollutants of water courses in Australia. A strong degree of complementarity between the two pollutants is highlighted, given the adsorption of phosphorus to sediment that augments the value of gully and streambank management for mitigation. However, the relationship between the two pollutants is asymmetric. A 30 per cent reduction in phosphorus yield achieves a 75 per cent reduction in sediment yield in one catchment, while a 30 per cent reduction in sediment yield achieves only a 12 per cent reduction in phosphorus yield. Sediment abatement costs are low given the efficiency of gully and streambank management. A 30 per cent phosphorus reduction lowers profit by 3–7 per cent, while a 30 per cent sediment reduction lowers profit by around 1 per cent. Land‐use optimisation requires spatial heterogeneity in land‐use and gully/streambank management responses. Overall, this research demonstrates the need to determine whether one pollutant is more important than another, while recognising the potential that mitigation practices possess for the reduction of multiple emissions during their evaluation.     

The use of negotiation strategies among recreational participants with different involvement levels: the case of recreational swimmers

This paper is aimed to segment recreational swimmers according to their involvement level, profile the involvement groups according to demographic variables, and further test the role of negotiation strategies in the development of swimming involvement. Two hundred and sixty (N?=?260) recreational swimmers participated in the study and completed Kyle et al.'s three-facet involvement scale and Alexandris et al.’s five-dimension leisure negotiation scale. The results of cluster analysis revealed three distinct involvement groups: high, medium and low involved recreational swimmers. The high involved group consisted mainly of females, middle-aged and married individuals; the medium involved group did not have a clear demographic profile, while the low involved group consisted mainly of males and young individuals. The three involvement groups had statistical significant scores in all the five negotiation strategy dimensions, with the high involved individuals having the highest scores and the low involved individuals having the lowest ones. These results provide empirical support for the negotiation proposition, which was developed by Jackson, Crawford, and Godbey. They further contribute to the existing leisure literature by showing how demographic segmentation can be used in combination with psychographic variables in order to profile groups of participants.     

Employability and the psychological contract in European ICT sector SMEs

This article explores the employability of information and communication technology (ICT) professionals from the perspective of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The first stage of analysis, based on over 100 interviews with managers of ICT supplier companies in seven European countries (Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland and the UK), showed most SMEs to have a generally ad hoc approach to managing the employability of their ICT professionals. Assessment and development plans were used primarily to keep skills current to business needs; however, the more developed northern European markets showed greater awareness of the ‘high commitment’ benefits of a more sophisticated approach towards career management (e.g. through mentoring or career planning). A second stage of analysis based only on UK interviews builds on this to propose a model of positive employer influence on psychological contracts through career and employability management practices.     

Believing Facts in the Fog of War: Identity,Media and Hot Cognition in Ukraine’s 2014 Odesa Tragedy

ABSTRACT

How do people form beliefs about the factual content of major events when established geopolitical orders are violently challenged? Here, we address the tragic events of 2 May 2014, in Odesa, Ukraine. There, Euromaidan protest movement supporters and opponents clashed following Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the onset of the Donbas conflict, culminating in the worst civilian death toll the city had seen since World War II. Shortly after, we surveyed Ukraine’s population about who they thought had actually perpetrated the killings and relate people’s answers to alternative narratives (frames) that an original content analysis finds were available to Ukrainian citizens through different media. We find evidence, consistent with theories of hot cognition and motivated reasoning, that the Odesa violence triggered emotional responses linked to ethnic, regional, and partisan identity, which then activated attitudes associated with these identities that, in turn, led people to adopt very different (sometimes highly improbable) beliefs about who carried out the killings. Ethnic identity in particular is found to have strongly moderated the effects of television, with Ukrainian television greatly influencing Ukrainians but backfiring among Russians, and Russian television mainly impacting non-Ukrainians. Education and local information are found to reduce susceptibility to televised factual narratives.