Estimation of semiparametric locally stationary diffusion models

This paper proposes a class of locally stationary diffusion processes. The model has a time varying but locally linear drift and a volatility coefficient that is allowed to vary over time and space. The model is semiparametric because we allow these functions to be unknown and the innovation process is parametrically specified, indeed completely known. We propose estimators of all the unknown quantities based on long span data. Our estimation method makes use of the property of local stationarity. We establish asymptotic theory for the proposed estimators as the time span increases, so we do not rely on infill asymptotics. We apply this method to interest rate data to illustrate the validity of our model. Finally, we present a simulation study to provide the finite-sample performance of the proposed estimators.     

Beyond "Yes or No" - Extending Access Control in Groupware with Awareness and Negotiation

We present three scenarios concerning access to documents in three real world fields of application, which have in common that they are very difficult to support with classical anticipative access control systems. We show, how - based on a highly configurable notification and negotiation service, which is tightly integrated with a classical access control system - the common permission and denial options can be extended with awareness and negotiation and how this approach supports the three initial access scenarios. We also introduce our implementation of the notification and negotiation service in the PoliTeam project.     

Estimating the Impact of Anti-dumping and Anti-cartel Actions Using Intervention Analysis

Intervention analysis is proposed as a method for estimating the effects of anti-dumping actions in the presence of a domestic cartel. Data requirements and modelling effort compare favourably with traditional structural model approaches. The method is applied to an anti-dumping action brought to the European Commission and in which the European producers of the product were fined after an anti-cartel action by the Commission covering an overlapping period. Interven tion analysis is applied to distinguish the effects of the anti-dumping action from those of changes in cartel behaviour     

Climate threshold,financial hoarding and economic growth

We use an iterative finite difference method to establish theoretical models that reflect the relationships among climate threshold, financial hoarding and economic growth. We build a simultaneous equations model to conduct an empirical analysis based on China’s statistical data from 1979 to 2012. Our study yields the following results: China’s climate threshold has shown a zigzag-shaped rising trend since 1979; the main reasons for the rapid expansion of financial hoarding were high savings rate, savings leakage, higher marginal efficiency of financial hoarding compared to capital efficiency or higher internal creativity of the financial sector; there were positive cumulative effects between financial hoarding and economic growth, which were significantly inhibited by climate threshold; the climate threshold had discrepant influences on different industries. To achieve a balanced economy, more money should be invested in the real sector to appropriately reduce the rate of savings leakage; the financial sector should move from scale expansion to service efficiency improvements to increase its marginal contribution to the economy and to enhance capital efficiency; the real sector should improve technological innovation and speed up the adaptive adjustment in climate-sensitive industries to move from economic growth to advanced development.     

TRANSACTION COST ECONOMICS: THE PRECURSORS

Theories commonly progress through four stages, from informal to pre‐formal to semi‐formal and fully formal. This paper reports on the earliest stage of transaction cost economics that extended from the 1920s to the 1970s. That the gestation stage lasted so long is partly because transaction cost economics departed significantly from the then‐prevailing economic orthodoxy. Also, and related, it is an interdisciplinary undertaking. As reported herein, transaction cost economics selectively combines economics, organisation theory and law and is the product of the contributions of some of the finest minds in those three fields.     

Ein Rollstuhl muss passen wie ein Schuh

Zusammenfassung  Eine Rollstuhlanpassung in fünf Akten — K?nnen Sie sich Ihren Arbeitsalltag ohne den Rollstuhl vorstellen? Sicher nicht. Doch allzu oft kommt der n?chstbeste Stuhl zum Einsatz – ungeachtet der K?rperma?e der Person, die ihn benutzen soll und die dann eher schlecht als recht darin sitzt. Doch schon kleinste Ver?nderungen an Rücklehne oder Sitzposition k?nnen Ihrem Patienten helfen. Oliver Kopplin gibt Pflegekr?ften Tipps, worauf sie bei Patienten im Rollstuhl achten sollten.     

STOCK RETURNS AND VOLATILITY ON CHINA'S STOCK MARKETS

We examine time‐series features of stock returns and volatility, as well as the relation between return and volatility in four of China's stock exchanges. Variance ratio tests reject the hypothesis that stock returns follow a random walk. We find evidence of long memory of returns. Application of GARCH and EGARCH models provides strong evidence of time‐varying volatility and shows volatility is highly persistent and predictable. The results of GARCH‐M do not show any relation between expected returns and expected risk. Daily trading volume used as a proxy for information arrival time has no significant explanatory power for the conditional volatility of daily returns. JEL classification: G15