The Delphi method, impeachment and terrorism: Accuracies of short-range forecasts for volatile world events

Two experiments examined the effects of iterated polling and feedback on prediction accuracy for volatile world events using the Delphi paradigm. In both experiments, participants predicted rapidly changing geopolitical events. The first experiment occurred during the litigation surrounding the Clinton/Lewinsky affair in 1998. Results indicated that feedback improved individual and group accuracy for predictions of whether an event would occur. These types of predictions derived from group consensus were approximately 90% accurate, which was significantly higher than the average individual participant's accuracy. Neither polling nor feedback had much effect on time course predictions. The second experiment occurred during the American military action against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in 2001. In Experiment 2, participants were polled three times to determine if increasing the number of iterated polls would improve Delphi accuracy. The results showed that accuracy improved from the first to the second poll but not from the second to the third. The groups predicted whether these scenarios would occur with approximately 75% accuracy, which was significantly higher than the accuracy of any individual participant. Once again, the Delphi procedure did not enhance time course predictions in Experiment 2.     

Productivity,earnings, and profit sharing — An econometric analysis of alternative models

The theoretical status of the relationship between productivity, wages, and profit sharing (PS) is poor. Only some alternative hypotheses can be formulated. From these explanations six different econometric models are derived. Using data of the German Socio-Economic Panel the models are estimated and tests and indicators are employed to choose the best model. Our investigation speaks in favour of hybrid simultaneous Tobit models where the level of profit sharing is positively correlated with productivity which induces positive wage effects on the one hand. But on the other hand the level of wages is also relevant to the question whether a firm introduces or decides to continuePS and which amount ofPS should be paid.What is obvious is not always true and introspection is a notoriously unreliable guide to empirical magnitudes. Blinder (1990, p.2)     

Total factor productivity and R&D capital in the spanish economy, 1965–1980

A formal model of productivity growth and technical progress is presented. The model takes into account embodied and disembodied technical progress as explanatory variables. The slowdown in productivity growth for the Spanish economy after 1972 is explained for 92% by the decline in the rate of growth of technical progress originated from domestic R&D and technology imports.     

The Lévy LIBOR model

Models driven by Lévy processes are attractive because of their greater flexibility compared to classical diffusion models. First we derive the dynamics of the LIBOR rate process in a semimartingale as well as a Lévy Heath-Jarrow-Morton setting. Then we introduce a Lévy LIBOR market model. In order to guarantee positive rates, the LIBOR rate process is constructed as an ordinary exponential. Via backward induction we get that the rates are martingales under the corresponding forward measures. An explicit formula to price caps and floors which uses bilateral Laplace transforms is derived.     

Zwischen Vertragstreue und Vorteilsstreben

In the context of this article the author states that the present law situation is quite sufficient, in order to fight frauds within the insurance range effectively. In his personal view it is missing however at general consciousness that such frauds represent criminal injustice. In all other respects the author demands the attitude of the insurance industry to bring already detected criminal offences also to criminal pursuit.     

Zur Nachhaltigkeit der Generationenverträge: Eine Diagnose der Kranken- und Pflegeversicherung

Employing the generational accounting approach, this paper analyses the stance of fiscal policy in Germany. We find that fiscal policy is presently not sustainable, which is mainly due to pay-as-you-go financed social insurance systems. In order to illustrate the relative impact, we isolate the Public Health Insurance and the Public Long Term Care Insurance. Our findings suggest that without radical reforms the implicit debt burden for future generations might reach a magnitude of more than two times the annual GDP and contribution rates to both schemes will explode during the next three decades.