Histogram-based prediction of directional price relatives

A model of directional prediction of price relatives is proposed following the histogram-based scheme developed in Györfi et al. (2006). This methodology allows us to exploit potential information contained in multivariate series of price relatives. The impact of the model is studied from the perspective of an economic agent through the use of double linear loss functions. A numerical example with real data is presented to illustrate the model.     

Creative Accounting: Some Ethical Issues of Macro- and Micro-Manipulation

Preparers of financial statements are in a position to manipulate the view of economic reality presented in those statements to interested parties. This paper examines two principal categories of manipulative behaviour. The term macro-manipulation is used to describe the lobbying of regulators to persuade them to produce regulation that is more favourable to the interests of preparers. Micro-manipulation describes the management of accounting figures to produce a biased view at the entity level. Both categories of manipulation can be viewed as attempts at creativity by financial statement preparers. The paper analyses two cases of manipulation. First, it describes a recent case of significant and successful lobbying against the accounting regulator in the USA. The second case examines some recent Spanish earnings manipulation to demonstrate the effects of biased reporting at the entity level. Both types of creativity are considered in an ethical context. The paper concludes that the manipulations described in it can be regarded as morally reprehensible. They are not fair to users, they involve an unjust exercise of power, and they tend to weaken the authority of accounting regulators.     

Approximation results for discontinuous games with an application to equilibrium refinement

We provide approximation results for Nash equilibria in possibly discontinuous games when payoffs and strategy sets are perturbed. We then prove existence results for a new “finitistic” infinite-game generalization of Selten’s (Int J Game Theory 4: 25–55, 1975) notion of perfection and study some of its properties. The existence results, which rely on the approximation theorems, relate existing notions of perfection to the new specification.     

Voting over income taxation

A major problem of the positive theory of income taxation is to explain why statutory income tax schedules in practice are marginal-rate progressive. While it is commonly believed that this is but a simple consequence of the fact that the number of relatively poor voters exceeds that of richer voters in general, putting this contention in a voting equilibrium context is not a trivial task. We do this here in the context of nonlinear taxation and attempt to provide a formal argument in support of this heuristic claim. We first establish the existence of mixed strategy equilibria and identify certain cases in which marginal-rate progressive taxes are chosen almost surely by the political parties. Unfortunately, we also find that if the tax policy space is not artificially constrained, the support of at least one equilibrium cannot be contained within the set of marginal-rate progressive taxes.     

Further results on essential Nash equilibria in normal-form games

A Nash equilibrium \(x\) of a normal-form game \(G\) is essential if any perturbation of \(G\) has an equilibrium close to \(x\). Using payoff perturbations, we identify a new collection of games containing a dense, residual subset of games whose Nash equilibria are all essential. This collection covers economic examples that cannot be handled by extant results and subsumes the sets of games considered in the literature.     

Local versus global mimetism: the dynamics of alliance formation in the automobile industry

The alliance dynamics among the 35 largest firms in the worldwide automobile industry indicates that the likelihood of an alliance between any two firms depends on the local density of alliances among the members of their strategic groups, rather than on the global density of alliances in the industry. These results suggest that firms most closely observe and imitate the strategic behavior of firms who occupy the same strategic niche rather than the behavior of firms in their industry defined more broadly. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Time to Slow Down for High-Frequency Trading? Lessons from Artificial Markets

In this paper, we focus on the French cancel order tax implemented on 1 August 2012. We question the effectiveness of the modified tax with no exemptions and we analyze its impact on market quality, measured by liquidity, volatility and efficiency. Additionally, this paper raises the question whether this tax leads to a reduction of high-frequency trading (HFT) activities and a decline in trading volume. Based on our findings we report that introduction of cancel order tax only slightly reduces HFT activities, but it significantly affects market liquidity, increases market volatility and leads to deteriorating market efficiency. We conclude that it is difficult to dissuade investors from entering into unproductive trades and eliminate negative outputs of HFT (such as price manipulations) through tax, without altering the benefits of HFT like liquidity provision and efficient price discovery.