Multiple generation product life cycle predictions using a novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method

Product life cycle (PLC) prediction plays a crucial role in strategic planning and policy definition for high-technology products. Forecast methodologies which can predict PLCs accurately can help to achieve successful strategic decision-making, forecasting, and foresight activities in high-technology firms, research institutes, governments, and universities. Over the past few decades, even though analytic framework strategies have been proposed for production, marketing, R&D (research and development), and finance, aiming at each stage of PLCs, forecast methodologies with which to predict PLCs are few. The purpose of this research is to develop a novel forecast methodology to allow for predictions of product life time (PLT) and the annual shipment of products during the entire PLC of multiple generation products. A novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method is proposed in this paper. In the first stage, the product life-time of the specific generation to be analyzed will be predicted by the fuzzy piecewise regression line that is derived based upon the product life-time of earlier generations. In the second stage of the forecast methodology, the annual shipment of products of the specified generation will be predicted by deriving annual fuzzy regression lines for each generation, based upon the historical data on the earlier generations' products. An empirical study predicting the life-time and the annual shipment of the 16 Mb (Mega bit) DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) PLC is illustrated to validate the analytical process. The results demonstrate that two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis can predict multiple generation PLT and PLC precisely, thereby serving as a foundation for future strategic planning, policy definitions and foresights.     

A multi-level analysis of sustainable mobility transitions: Niche development in the UK and Sweden

A wide range of intractable problems such as polluting emissions, noise, accidents, resource depletion, and inaccessibility of amenities are associated with the current transport regime. Given the slow movement towards a more sustainable mobility system, more radical, systemic innovation - a ‘transition’ - is required. Broadly speaking, this may be achieved via three routes: technological change, modal shift, and reduced travel demand. Drawing on concepts from the transitions literature (e.g., [Geels, F.W.: Technological Transitions and System Innovations: A Co-evolutionary and Socio-Technical Analysis, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 2005.]), we conceptualise each of these routes as a bundle of niche activities within an Area of Innovation, deviating to differing degrees from the current mobility ‘regime’. We present empirical evidence and indications of ongoing development of niches in these three areas within the UK and Sweden, and explore processes of co-evolution, divergence and tension within and between niches. Findings indicate recent market penetration of novel transport technologies, more advanced than modal shift or demand management activities; however, different transport technologies are more successful in each country. We also identify examples of a close relationship between development of radical vehicle/fuel technologies and provision of mobility services; and information technology as a driver in all three areas of innovation. We conclude that future innovation in transport depends on diversity, hybridisation, and co-evolution of niches. Finally, policy implications are discussed.     

A theory of innovation for process-based innovations such as nanotechnology

Many see Nanotechnology as the technology that will underlie the next Schumpeterian wave creating new opportunities for wealth and job creation. Further it is a process based or materials technology. Yet all currently used models of innovation are based on assembled products or service products and these simply do not recognize the differences in materials products nor the “enabling” nature of Nanotechnologies. If nanotechnology is poised to become the economic engine of this millennium and if current models of innovation, which are utilized, by policy makers and firm based strategist alike are based on technology product paradigms that are dissimilar to the realities of nanotechnology and other process-based technologies then there is cause for concern.Here the authors provide a model and supporting cases demonstrating a new process or materials based innovation model that is based on the tight coupling between product and process innovation of not only Nanotechnology-based products but other process-based products. This is an important finding, because it identifies and remedies a gap in the literature associated with earlier process and product innovation models. For process-based products like materials, food, chemicals and nanotechnologies any change to the manufacturing processes results in significant changes in end product features. The implications of this model to practice are considered.     

Persistence of Output Fluctuations Under Different Exchange Rate Regimes

In a recent paper, Giugale and Korobow (2000) present evidence that suggests that the time required by output to return to trend following a financial shock is faster under a flexible exchange rate regime than under a fixed exchange rate. In this paper, we use vector autoregression models to measure the persistence properties of output for a number of countries in the Asia–Pacific region. Our results suggest that output persistence is not uniquely related to a country's choice of exchange rate regime. The two countries in our sample with the least persistent output following a financial shock are Australia, where the exchange rate is fully flexible, and Hong Kong, where it is rigidly fixed via a currency board.     

The contribution of vacations to quality of life

The contribution of vacations to people’s life satisfaction and Quality of Life (QOL) has recently attracted substantial attention among tourism researchers. Yet, most QOL scales do not include vacations: 7% explicitly measure vacations whereas 42% only include items relating to vacations within the broader Leisure domain. Leisure and vacations, however, differ substantially in nature with leisure referring to regular home-based activities and vacations being infrequent leisure activities away from home. As a consequence of the common amalgamation of vacations with leisure, there is limited knowledge about the specific contribution of vacations to people’s QOL. The present study (1) presents empirical evidence for the contribution of vacations to QOL, (2) determines the extent of this contribution, and (3) investigates variation in the extent to which vacations contribute to the QOL of different people. Results indicate that vacations contribute to the QOL of the majority of people, are as important a QOL domain as Leisure and People, and that QOL means different things to different people at different points in their life, representing an individual and dynamic concept.     

A preliminary study on customer expectations of hotel hospitality: Influences of personal and hotel factors

This study attempts to explain the influence of personal and hotel factors on the expectation level of hotel hospitality as well as to propose a scale to measure commercial hospitality for hotel services. A total of 101 local and international hotel guests were involved in the study. The results revealed that the expectations of hotel hospitality are influenced by personal factors such as gender, purpose of stay, nationality, and private domain of hospitality. The hotel's star rating is the only hotel factor that might have strong association with hotel hospitality.     

Exploring new product portfolio management decisions: The role of managers' dispositional traits

Product strategy links to new product development (NPD) through new product portfolio management (NPPM). This dynamic decision process addresses the strategy implementation questions of identifying which new product ideas to pursue and their relative priorities. Despite the importance of NPPM in implementing product strategy, firms exhibit substantial performance-affecting differences. We investigate one potential source for such differences by examining the impact of managers' dispositional factors as a possible explanation. Using a case study research method, we examine differences in NPPM strategies and managers' revealed dispositional traits across three divisions of a single conglomerate firm operating in different business-to-business markets. Based on our analysis, we offer propositions relating managers' dispositions to NPPM strategy: analytic cognitive style is associated with balance, ambiguity tolerance is associated with strategic fit, and leadership style is associated with the relative weights applied to each dimension.     

SOCO's impact on individual sales performance: The integration of selling skills as a missing link

Conventional wisdom suggests that a customer orientation is a vital cornerstone upon which the success of salespeople is predicated in terms of serving their customers and prospects. However, at a pragmatic level, not all salespeople practice a customer-oriented philosophy in their day-to-day selling. In fact, decades of sales research provide largely inconclusive results with respect to individual salespersons' customer orientation and performance outcomes. We argue that for customer orientation to be a predictor of sales performance, specific selling skills must be present. Furthermore, we empirically demonstrate that without these requisite selling skills, salespeople are better off utilizing a sales orientation approach, as opposed to a customer orientation approach. More provocatively, this research shows that a “missing link” in the long standing body of research on the SOCO (sales orientation/customer orientation) perspective is that specific selling skills can impact sales performance directly as well as moderate the impact that both a “sales orientation” and a “customer orientation” ultimately have on sales performance.     

Effects of employees' perceived dependability on success of enterprise applications in e-business

Electronic business (e-business) plays a major role in modern economic networks due to its shorter cycle time and faster information transactions. Building enterprise applications that can coordinate activities, decisions, and knowledge across many functions is a good solution for e-business. Hence, how to implement enterprise applications successfully has become an increasingly important management issue. Although success of information systems (IS) has received fairly extensive attention from prior research, issues regarding whether functions and service delivered by systems can be justifiably relied on by users are seriously ignored, especially complex systems like enterprise applications. Thus, this paper attempts to extend this kind of concept, perceived dependability, into DeLone and McLean's IS success model to explore how it influences success of enterprise applications. Results from a survey of 170 respondents taken from six internationalized e-businesses in Taiwan strongly support that perceived dependability is indeed an important factor for success of enterprise applications. Additionally, over and beyond the effects of dependability on success of enterprise applications, it can help practitioners and managers get deep insights into how to implement e-business successfully.     

Entry mode choice in China's regional distribution markets: Institution vs. transaction costs perspectives

In this paper, we investigate the entry mode choice of a leading Taiwanese food company in setting up regional distributors in China's 312 sales districts. Our study shows that, in entry mode decisions, the institutional factors are more important than transaction cost considerations. Both formal and informal institutions are considered. Formal institutions refer to government prescribed institutions (laws and regulations), while informal institutions refer to rules prescribed by the industry and the society. Both institutions are shown to affect the entry mode choices but one important type of institution, professional norms, is conspicuously missing in China. Professional norms exert peer pressures on the practitioners in the same profession, forcing their behaviors to conform to a common pattern. In the absence of professional norms, the roles of network ties and mimetic behaviors are heightened and they become a proxy for professional norms. As a foreign enterprise operating in China's local markets, the Taiwanese food company attained legitimacy by forming alliances with local wholesalers and by following its predecessors in selecting organization forms.