DOES MONEY MATTER FOR INFLATION IN THE EURO AREA?

We analyze the relationship between M3 growth and inflation within an error correction framework including also the output gap, the 3‐mo EURIBOR, and the 10‐yr government bond yield. We find robust cointegration between money growth and inflation. Shocks in M3 growth account for up to 30% of the inflation forecast error variance, while the effects of output gap and interest rate shocks are mainly transitory. Significantly different dynamics are found during periods at the end of the seventies and beginning of the eighties when interest rate and inflation rate levels were high and real money growth decreasing. (JEL C32, E31, E41)     

Did owner‐occupation lead to smaller families for interwar working‐class households?1

This article examines the links between working‐class home ownership and family limitation in interwar Britain. Purchasing a suburban house enabled families to buy into a new, aspirational model of working‐class respectability. Embracing this model entailed increased accommodation costs and higher levels of conspicuous consumption, placing great strains on many household budgets. Owner‐occupiers therefore sought to limit the size of their families in order to sustain their new lifestyles. Meanwhile the new suburban ideology strongly emphasized improved standards of childcare, based around creating a high‐quality domestic environment, and thus directly encouraged families to aim for fewer, but better‐resourced children.     

Uninvited U.S. Investors? Economic Consequences of Involuntary Cross‐Listings

We study the economic consequences of a recent Securities and Exchange Commission securities regulation change that grants foreign firms trading on the U.S. over‐the‐counter (OTC) market an automatic exemption from the reporting requirements of the 1934 Securities Act. We document that the number of voluntary (sponsored) OTC cross‐listings did not increase following the regulation change, suggesting that it did not achieve its intended purpose of increasing voluntary OTC cross‐listings through a reduction in compliance costs. We do find that the design of the regulation allowed financial intermediaries to create an unprecedented number of involuntary (unsponsored) OTC ADRs: 1,700 unsponsored ADR programs for 920 firms were created for companies that had previously chosen not to cross‐list in the United States. Our difference‐in‐differences analysis based on a matched sample approach documents that foreign firms forced into the U.S. capital markets experience a significant decrease in firm value, and we further show that the decrease in firm value is related to an increase in U.S. litigation risk. We also find that depositary banks’ propensity to involuntarily cross‐list firms is positively related to banks’ expected fee revenue, and that banks chose firms that incur high costs when involuntarily cross‐listed. Our results provide evidence that securities regulation can be exploited for private gain and result in costly unintended consequences.     

COMPETITIVE CONSIDERATIONS IN CABLE TELEVISION FRANCHISING

Franchising and renewing of franchises for cable television systems is an important urban policy issue. Of particular interest is whether franchise authorities ought to grant more than one franchise to provide cable service in a given area. This paper reports results of an empirical investigation into the cost structure of large, modern, urban cable systems. We find modest economies of scale in dimensions relevant to the feasibility of direct competition. The economies are not so large as to rule out the possibility that competition…whether direct or potential…can be an important disciplinary force in the marketplace.     

Gains from Trade versus Gains from Migration: What Makes Them So Different?

Would unrestricted “economic” migration enhance the potential gains from free trade? With free migration, consumers' feasible sets become non‐convex. Under standard assumptions, however, Walrasian equilibrium exists for a continuum of individuals with dispersed ability to afford each of a finite set of possible migration plans. Then familiar conditions ensuring potential Pareto gains from trade also ensure that free migration generates similar supplementary gains, relative to an arbitrary status quo. As with the gains from customs unions, however, wealth may have to be redistributed across international borders.     

Comparable Worth and Factor Point Pay Analysis in State Government

This study examines how factor point systems have treated state government jobs, which are held disproportionately by women, minorities, and union members. The findings indicate that female jobs may gain from comparable worth pay proposals, but the gains are dissipated in actual pay; unionized and minority workers tend to lose both proposed and actual pay; and the dispersion of points and pay is narrowed for jobs covered by collective bargaining agreements     

Is Debt Relief Efficient?

When developing countries announce debt relief agreements under the Brady Plan, their stock markets appreciate by an average of 60% in real dollar terms—a $42 billion increase in shareholder value. There is no significant stock market increase for a control group of countries that do not sign Brady agreements. The stock market appreciations successfully forecast higher future resource transfers, investment, and growth. Since the market capitalization of U.S. commercial banks with developing country loan exposure also rises—by $13 billion—the results suggest that both borrower and lenders can benefit from debt relief when the borrower suffers from debt overhang.