ECONOMY‐WIDE EFFECTS OF REDUCING ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS IN U.S. EMPLOYMENT

We use an economy‐wide model to analyze the effects of three broad programs to reduce illegal immigrants in U.S. employment: tighter border security; taxes on employers; and vigorous prosecution of employers. After looking at macroeconomic industry and occupational effects, we decompose the welfare effect for legal residents into six parts covering changes in: producer surplus and illegal wage rates; skilled employment opportunities for natives; aggregate capital; aggregate legal employment; the terms of trade; and public expenditure. The type of program matters. Our analysis suggests a prima facie case in favor of taxes on employers. (JEL J61, C68)     

Exploring the Nature of “Trader Intuition”

Experimental evidence has consistently confirmed the ability of uninformed traders, even novices, to infer information from the trading process. After contrasting brain activation in subjects watching markets with and without insiders, we hypothesize that Theory of Mind (ToM) helps explain this pattern, where ToM refers to the human capacity to discern malicious or benevolent intent. We find that skill in predicting price changes in markets with insiders correlates with scores on two ToM tests. We document GARCH‐like persistence in transaction price changes that may help investors read markets when there are insiders.     

Has the Economy Become More Predictable? Changes in Greenbook Forecast Accuracy

Several researchers have recently documented large reductions in economic volatility. But a more important question may be whether the economy has become more predictable. Using forecasts from the Federal Reserve Greenbooks, I find that inflation and output have become more predictable, though the results for output are somewhat mixed. The reductions in unpredictability (if any) are significantly smaller than reductions in volatility. Associated with this, the predictable component of fluctuations in output and inflation has virtually disappeared.     

建立可持续战略

真正的赢家将是这样的人：他们不仅了解数字背后的含义,而且能根据数字分析制定战略。此外,他们还具有国际视野,并能在复杂的环境下根据直觉做出决策。     

The Impact of Media Attention on the Use of Alternative Earnings Measures

The practice of reporting earnings measures that deviate from generally accepted accounting principles (non‐GAAP measures) has received negative attention in the media. In a period of increased regulatory concern for these reporting practices, we explore whether there has been a shift away from the use of non‐GAAP metrics. This study focuses on the Dutch situation, where regulators responded conservatively (‘light’) to the accounting scandals. This contrasts with the U.S., where regulators intervened with a radical (‘heavy’) reform of regulation. We analyse a sample of earnings press releases published in the period 2000–05 from companies listed at Euronext Amsterdam. Our findings indicate that Dutch companies report non‐GAAP measures frequently and prominently. However, companies' reporting behaviour changes after a peak in negative media attention for non‐GAAP reporting. The magnitude of the adjustments to GAAP earnings becomes smaller and companies seem to have different reasons to report non‐GAAP measures. The effect of the media attention is stronger when companies have been criticized for their non‐GAAP reporting in the press. Investors seem to have become more hesitant towards the use of non‐GAAP measures for their decision‐making after negative media attention. Together, these findings suggest that the negative media attention for non‐GAAP measures has influenced the decisions of investors and managers.     

The Effect of SOX Section 404: Costs,Earnings Quality,and Stock Prices

This paper exploits a natural quasi‐experiment to isolate the effects that were uniquely due to the Sarbanes–Oxley Act (SOX): U.S. firms with a public float under $75 million could delay Section 404 compliance, and foreign firms under $700 million could delay the auditor's attestation requirement. As designed, Section 404 led to conservative reported earnings, but also imposed real costs. On net, SOX compliance reduced the market value of small firms.     

A Market Efficiency Study of Used Car Reliability and Prices

This study explores the relationship between price and reliability in the used car market. Some of the measurement concerns, expressed by others in price-quality studies of new products, are absent because of the choice of the secondary data sources from which the relationships were derived. The finding that depreciation is independent of reliability performance raises a number of public policy issues regarding the information efficiency of the used car market.