The heterogeneity of convergence in transition countries

For two groups of post-communist countries (CEE and CIS) we estimated the parameters of convergence equations on the basis of annual data. We depart from standard econometric theory, which involves panel regression techniques. We test cross-country heterogeneity of parameters within a system of Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations (SURE). We show empirical evidence in favour of the variability of parameters describing the convergence effect and productivity growth rates across countries. Our approach seems a convincing alternative to the panel regression approach where random effects can be estimated, imposing an assumption about the constancy of structural parameters within the group of countries under analysis. We discuss the role of the global financial crisis in the heterogeneity of convergence processes and productivity at the country level. The aforementioned SURE model was estimated based on two datasets, one containing observations prior to the crisis and the second containing the whole sample.     

An ergodic theorem for proportions of observations that fall into random sets determined by sample quantiles

Assume that a sequence of observations \((X_n; n\ge 1)\) forms a strictly stationary process with an arbitrary univariate cumulative distribution function. We investigate almost sure asymptotic behavior of proportions of observations in the sample that fall into a random region determined by a given Borel set and a sample quantile. We provide sufficient conditions under which these proportions converge almost surly and describe the law of the limiting random variable.     

Heterogeneous determinants of local unemployment in Poland

We identify determinants of large disparities in local unemployment rates across Poland. Using an extensive panel data-set on the NUTS-4 level (i.e. the poviats level, or districts or counties level) we examine a wide range of determinants of local unemployment. Our research examines two groups of the determinants: one related to equilibrium theory and the other related to disequilibrium theory of local unemployment. We find that demographics, education and sectoral employment composition exert a stronger impact over rates of local unemployment than various demand factors. The impact of the determinants, while robust for outliers, is not homogeneous across Polish regions. In particular, in the most depressed local labour markets, skill improvement programmes do not appear to work and unemployment rates are relatively less responsive to investment. Our research suggests that there is no easy cure for local unemployment in Poland, but a few policies have the potential to slightly reduce existing disparities.     

The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy Over the Business Cycle: A CEE Perspective

In this article we analyze the effectiveness of fiscal policy—for a group of four Central and Eastern European countries. The recent literature shows that fiscal multipliers in the developed economies are higher during recession than expansion. So far, similar empirical analyses have been lacking for CEE countries. The results presented in this article show that fiscal multipliers in CEE countries differ with respect to the phase of the business cycle. Based on the SVAR methodology in which we allow for deterministic regime switching, we show that the government spending multipliers are significantly higher when the output gap is negative.     

Long-Run Performance Persistence of Investment Funds

This article analyzes the long-run persistence of returns and risk of investment in the assets of money, bound, and stock funds recorded on the Polish market in 2000–12. Portfolios of safe, hybrid, and stock classes are formed on the basis of tested funds. The persistence of returns and the Sharpe ratio are investigated in rolled five-year sub-periods, with one year step. Also, persistence in performance is assessed using classic CAPM and Fama and French models, which allow for evaluating management skills. We find the occurrence of the Sharpe ratio long-run persistence of money and bound funds. The study does not explicitly show long-run persistence in hybrid and stock fund portfolios. The CAPM and Fama and French models simulations of returns on stock and hybrid funds indicate varying management skills during five-year periods.     

Technical Analysis as a Rational Tool of Decision Making for Professional Traders

The psychological background of technical analysis usage is investigated to further explain the popularity and common usage of technical analysis as an investment decision tool. Attitudes toward technical analysis of professional futures market traders and neophyte investors, represented by finance students, were examined. Technical analysis is one of the most popular methods supporting investment decisions and it is much more popular among future market traders than among neophyte investors. The concept of processing information was used to explain this phenomenon. Neophyte investors are more experiential and intuition-driven while using technical analysis models, while futures market traders are more rationally driven. Technical analysis methods help professional traders on futures markets, which are less transparent than regulated stock markets, to process information; those methods are perceived by them as rational, cognitive tools supporting their decision making.     

Selection of a Representative Value Function for Robust Ordinal Regression in Group Decision Making

In this paper, we introduce the concept of a representative value function in a group decision context. We extend recently proposed methods UTA^GMS-GROUP and UTADIS^GMS-GROUP with selection of a compromise and collective preference model which aggregates preferences of several decision makers (DMs) and represents all instances of preference models compatible with preference information elicited from DMs. The representative value function is built on results of robust ordinal regression, so its representativeness can be interpreted in terms of robustness concern. We propose a few procedures designed for multiple criteria ranking, choice, and sorting problems. The use of these procedures is conditioned by both satisfying different degrees of consistency of the preference information provided by all DMs, as well as by some properties of particular decision making situations. The representative value function is intended to help the DMs to understand the robust results, and to provide them with a compromise result in case of conflict between the DMs.     

The Small Border Traffic Zone between Poland and Kaliningrad Region (Russia): The Impact of a Local Visa-Free Border Regime

After Poland’s accession to the EU, the Polish-Russian border became the EU external border. This significantly changed its nature and started the new type of cross border relation. Since 2012, when the Small Border Traffic (SBT) zone came into force, the border has changed its blockade function and started instead to be treated as a resource. The fundamental loosening of the border crossing regime reduced the social and functional distance between Poland and Kaliningrad, and in a broader sense between EU and Kaliningrad. This paper will try to show how small but meaningful initiative, the SBT, has had an impact on cross-border region. The present paper will describe the relationship between larger geopolitical actors and how they affect local border relations. The aim of this paper is to present phenomenon of new visa regime at the Polish-Russian border. The paper likewise describes the impact of the SBT on local communities and their economies, as well as national relations between adjacent countries. The analysis is based on the interviews and surveys conducted in the Polish-Russian border region in late 2014.     

The Oaxaca–Blinder Unexplained Component as a Treatment Effects Estimator

In this paper I use the National Supported Work (NSW) data to examine the finite‐sample performance of the Oaxaca–Blinder unexplained component as an estimator of the population average treatment effect on the treated (PATT). Precisely, I follow sample and variable selections from Dehejia and Wahba (1999), and conclude that Oaxaca–Blinder performs better than any of the estimators in this influential paper, provided that overlap is imposed. As a robustness check, I consider alternative sample (Smith and Todd, 2005) and variable (Abadie and Imbens, 2011) selections, and present a simulation study which is also based on the NSW data.