The Willingness to Accept Value of Statistical Life Relative to the Willingness to Pay Value: Evidence and Policy Implications

Large disparities between willingness to accept (WTA) and willingness to pay (WTP) based values of statistical life are commonly encountered in empirical studies. Standard economic theory suggests that if a public good is easily substitutable there should be no marked disparity between WTA and WTP values for the good, though the disparity increases with reduced substitutability. However, psychologists have shown that people often treat gains and losses asymmetrically and tend to require a substantially larger increase in wealth to compensate for a loss than the amount they would be willing to pay for an equivalent gain. Although most transport projects may aim to improve safety, situations arise when a relaxation of an existing regulation saves resources but increases the risk of death and injuries. A survey was recently carried out in New Zealand to determine people’s willingness to pay to reduce road risks and their willingness to accept compensation for an increase in risk. This paper reports the disparity observed between the two measures and considers some of the problems posed for policymakers.     

The optimal degree of commitment in a negotiation with a deadline

Summary. This note explores the consequences of a player's freedom of choice over his degree of commitment for the bargaining outcome. In particular, we modify the nonstationary structure of Fershtman and Seidmann (1993)'s bargaining by allowing one player to possess imperfect commitments where the degree of commitment is chosen prior to the negotiation stage. We show that a player optimally chooses an intermediate degree of irrevocability provided the costs of increasing the degree of commitment are small enough. In this case, not only an immediate agreement is reached but also the commitment is effective.Received: 18 July 2002, Revised: 20 March 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: C78.Part of this work was written while I was visiting the IAE-CSIC and the University of Essex, whose hospitalities are gratefully acknowledged. This paper has benefited from comments of seminar participants at the University of Essex, 56th European Econometric Society Meeting, 16th Annual Congress of the European Economic Association in Lausanne and the XXVI Symposium of Economic Analysis in Barcelona. I thank Vicent Calabuig and Gonzalo Olcina for very helpful comments. I am especially indebted t o Clara Ponsatí and an anonymous referee for some very detailed comments which lead to substantial improvement of the paper. I also gratefully acknowledge the financial support from Generalitat Valenciana under a postdoctoral grant.     

Inflation forecast uncertainty

We study the inflation uncertainty reported by individual forecasters in the Survey of Professional Forecasters 1969-2001. Three popular measures of uncertainty built from survey data are analyzed in the context of models for forecasting and asset pricing, and improved estimation methods are suggested. Popular time series models are evaluated for their ability to reproduce survey measures of uncertainty. The results show that disagreement is a better proxy of inflation uncertainty than what previous literature has indicated, and that forecasters underestimate inflation uncertainty. We obtain similar results for output growth uncertainty.     

Modeling corner solutions with panel data: Application to the industrial energy demand in France

This paper provides an empirical application of Lee and Pitts (1986) approach to the problem of corner solutions in the case of panel data. This model deals with corner solutions in a manner consistent with the firm behavior theory while controlling for unobserved heterogeneity. In this model, energy demand at industrial plant level is the result of a discrete choice of the type of the energy to be consumed and a continuous choice that defines the level of demand. The econometric model is, essentially, an endogenous switching regime model which requires the evaluation of multivariate probability integrals. We estimate the random effect model by maximum likelihood using a panel of industrial French plants from the paper and pulp industry. We calculate empirical price elasticities of energy demand from the model. We also study the effects on energy demand of an environmental policy aimed at reducing CO₂ emissions. The authors are grateful to the Institut Français de eEnergie for its financial support and to the SESSI for providing the data. We would like to thank two anonymous referees for useful comments and suggestions. the usual disclaimer applies.     

Bid Design Effects in Multiple Bounded Discrete Choice Contingent Valuation

A potential concern in multiple bounded discrete choice contingent valuation surveys – where the respondent is asked to express voting certainty, rather than a simple yes or no, on a large number of payment amounts (bids) – is whether responses are influenced by the particular position of bids in the bid-voting panel rather than solely on the respondents willingness to pay (WTP). For instance, respondents may systematically state they would pay the first few bid amounts and not pay all subsequent bids – regardless of the actual dollar values. Such systematic bid design effects would suggest that this method does not provide a valid measure of WTP. Using a split-sample survey, we compare responses to three different bid arrays that have an identical minimum bid, maximum bid, and number of bids. Using nonparametric estimation techniques, we find that estimated WTP distributions and corresponding welfare measures are not statistically different across survey samples.     

Endogenous monetary policy and the liquidity effect

We compare the transmission mechanism of exogenous and endogenous monetary policies in a calibrated small open economy model with nominal and real rigidities. Under an exogenous monetary policy rule it takes implausible values of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution and the price adjustment costs to generate the liquidity and overshooting effects. Endogenous rules with strong feedback to inflation and output help to reproduce the response of the nominal interest and exchange rates to unanticipated monetary policy shocks that characterize the transmission mechanism of standard sticky price models. The liquidty and overshooting effects are always obtained when the model is augmented with a Taylor interest rate rule.JEL Classification: E32, E43Javier Andrés acknowledges support of CICYT grant SEC2002-0026. We thank the comments of two anonymous referees and the editor, Jordi Caballé, to an earlier version of the paper. The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not represent the view of the Banco de España.     

Inflation and growth: Explaining a negative effect

The paper presents a monetary model of endogenous growth and specifies an econometric model consistent with it. The economic model suggests a negative inflation-growth effect, and one that is stronger at lower levels of inflation. Empirical evaluation of the model is based on a large panel of OECD and APEC member countries over the years 1961–1997. The hypothesized negative inflation effect is found comprehensively for the OECD countries to be significant and, as in the theory, to increase marginally as the inflation rate falls. For APEC countries, the results from using instrumental variables also show significant evidence of a similar behavior. The nature of the inflation-growth profile and differences in this between the regions are interpreted with the credit production technology of the model in a way not possible with a standard cash-only economy. Research assistance by László Konya, Rezida Zakirova, and Anton Nakov and comments by Michal Kejak, Myles Wallace and Toni Braun are kindly acknowledged, along with comments from the 17^th European Economic Association Meetings, Venice, and the 10^th International Panel Data Conference, Berlin. We also thank the editors and referees for valuable comments, and the first author is grateful to Central European University for research funds.     

Climate Policy under Technology Spillovers

We study climate policy when there are technology spillovers between countries, as there is no instrument that (directly) corrects for these externalities. Without an international climate agreement, the (non-cooperative) equilibrium depends on whether countries use tradable quotas or carbon taxes as their environmental policy instruments. All countries are better-off in the tax case than in the quota case. Two types of international climate agreements are then studied: One is a Kyoto type of agreement where each country is assigned a specific number of internationally tradable quotas. In the second type of agreement, a common carbon tax is used domestically in all countries. None of the cases satisfy the conditions for the social optimum. Even if the quota price is equal to the Pigovian level, R&D investments will be lower than what is socially optimal in the quota case. It is also argued that the quota agreement gives higher R&D expenditures and more abatement than the tax agreement.     

On the Trade-off Between Work-related Training and Labor Mobility: The Role of Firing and Exit Costs

Within an incomplete-contract framework, we examine the consequences of contract renegotiation for contract design/enforcement and training market efficiency. Specifically, we show how the imposition of either firing costs or exit costs can bind together employers and employees in longer-lasting employment relationships that allow both agents to amortize their training investments. Nevertheless, the model implies that, although firing and exit costs provide institutional solutions to the training under-investment problem, this is achieved at the expense of allocative efficiency (efficient separations). Empirical evidence supports the existence of such a trade-off.revised version received July 23, 2003     

Context-Sensitive Benefit Transfer Using Stated Choice Models: Specification and Convergent Validity for Policy Analysis

Benefit transfer has been an important, practical policy tool appealing to government agencies, especially when time or budget is constrained. However, the literature fails to support convergent validity of benefit transfer using the stated-preference method. This empirical study conducts four convergent validity assessments of benefit transfer using the choice modeling method and data from Rhode Island and Massachusetts, regarding coastal land management. The comparisons evaluate how individual characteristics improve benefit transfer and yield insights relevant to research specifications to produce studies adaptable for transfer applications. Empirical tests show benefit transfer using choice modeling may be acceptable, and even empirically valid, depending on the policy objectives and the context.