Austerity measures in crisis countries — results and impact on mid-term development

Since the onset of the sovereign debt crisis, the crisis-stricken countries in Europe have been pushed to take drastic steps to consolidate their finances and reduce their budget deficits. Despite strong public opposition and largely damaging short-run effects, the countries have undertaken many of the internationally recommended/mandated reforms and spending cuts. In this Forum, authors from Greece, Ireland, Italy, Spain and Portugal report on the fiscal consolidation achieved in their respective countries — and the sacrifices that have made it possible. Furthermore, the authors detail what remains to be done to resolve the crisis.     

Strategic and Queue effects on Entry in Spanish Banking

This paper analyzes the factors that influence entry and geographic diversification decisions, a topic of special strategic interest in a context of growing globalization. The empirical model we propose is tested in a framework— the Spanish savings-bank market—where recent deregulation has eliminated the legal barriers to entry. Our results show two important conclusions for the evolution of the effects of branching deregulation in Europe and the US. First, it seems that entry in new geographical markets has been impeded by the strategic interactions between entrants and incumbents. Second, savings banks exhibit a preference for closer locations at the time of expanding, which may have undermined the effects of deregulation and its potential benefits for consumers.     

The expectation hypothesis of the term structure of very short-term rates: Statistical tests and economic value

This paper reexamines the validity of the expectation hypothesis (EH) of the term structure of US repo rates ranging in maturity from overnight to 3 months. We extend the work of Longstaff [2000b. The term structure of very short term rates: new evidence for the expectations hypothesis. Journal of Financial Economics 58, 397–415] in two directions: (1) we implement statistical tests designed to increase test power in this context; (2) more important, we assess the economic value of departures from the EH based on criteria of profitability and economic significance in the context of a simple trading strategy. The EH is rejected throughout the term structure examined on the basis of the statistical tests. However, the results of our economic analysis are favorable to the EH, suggesting that the statistical rejections of the EH in the repo market are economically insignificant.     

A latent class conjoint analysis for the Administrative Clerk figure: insights from ELECTUS

Quality & Quantity - ELECTUS is a multi-centre research project with the aim to stabilize the relationship between universities and companies. Through this project, it is possible to acquire...     

Eliciting,Applying And Exploring Multidimensional Welfare Weights: Evidence From The Field

By combining primary data on dimension importance collected in the field from three different samples and nationally representative survey data from the Dominican Republic, we offer a twofold contribution. The first one comes from an unincentivized questionnaire experiment, where the significance of the treatment effect shows that life domains are valued differently in a poverty vs a well‐being framework. This poses important questions on the anatomy of dimension importance and on the use of weights in empirical analyses, and opens the door to what we call a “concordance paradox” related to the very essence of the constructs of poverty and well‐being. As a second contribution, we employ the sets of weights collected in the field to assess the trend of multidimensional poverty and well‐being in the country. We find that the picking one set of weights or another is not a trivial choice, as they lead to opposite assessment results.     

Relative Deprivation and School Enrolment. Evidence from Mexico

Using a large dataset (2.9 million households), we provide solid evidence of relative deprivation as being a negative correlate of school enrolment in Mexico, absolute standard of living being controlled for. This result is robust to a number of specifications, and to the use of linear and less than linear indices of relative deprivation. In addition, we find that marginal effects of relative deprivation are stronger at higher standards of living and for older children.     

From economic decline to the current crisis in Italy

The objective of this paper is to show that the current global economic crisis, into which Italy also fell in 2008, represents just the last step of a long declining path for the Italian economy which began in the 1990s, or to be more precise in 1992 and 1993. It is argued that the reasons that explain the long Italian decline, and partly also the deeper recession today, as well as the lack of recovery from the current crisis, can be found in the past reforms of the labour market. In particular, the labour flexibility introduced in the last 15 years had, along with other policies introduced in parallel, cumulative negative consequences on the inequality, on the consumption, on the aggregate demand, on the labour productivity and on the GDP dynamics.     

Global liquidity risk in the foreign exchange market

Using a broad data set of 20 US dollar exchange rates and order flow of institutional investors over 14 years, we construct a measure of global liquidity risk in the foreign exchange (FX) market. Our FX liquidity measure may be seen as the analog of the well-known Pastor–Stambaugh liquidity measure for the US stock market. We show that this measure has reasonable properties, and that there is a strong common component in liquidity across currencies. Finally, we provide evidence that liquidity risk is priced in the cross-section of currency returns, and estimate the liquidity risk premium in the FX market around 4.7 percent per annum.     

Properties of foreign exchange risk premiums

We study the properties of foreign exchange risk premiums that can explain the forward bias puzzle, defined as the tendency of high-interest rate currencies to appreciate rather than depreciate. These risk premiums arise endogenously from the no-arbitrage condition relating the term structure of interest rates and exchange rates. Estimating affine (multi-currency) term structure models reveals a noticeable tradeoff between matching depreciation rates and accuracy in pricing bonds. Risk premiums implied by our global affine model generate unbiased predictions for currency excess returns and are closely related to global risk aversion, the business cycle, and traditional exchange rate fundamentals.