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41.
Asset prices, exchange rates and the current account 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This paper analyses the role of asset prices in comparison to other factors, in particular exchange rates, as a driver of the US trade balance. It employs a Bayesian structural VAR model that requires imposing only a minimum of economically meaningful sign restrictions. We find that equity market shocks and housing price shocks have been major determinants of the US current account in the past, accounting for up to 30% of the movements of the US trade balance at a horizon of 20 quarters. By contrast, shocks to the real exchange rate have been less relevant, explaining about 9% and exerting a more temporary effect on the US trade balance. Our findings suggest that large exchange rate movements may not necessarily be the key element of an adjustment of today's large current account imbalances, and that in particular relative global asset price changes could be a potent source of adjustment. 相似文献
42.
Giacomo Bormetti Lucio Maria Calcagnile Fulvio Corsi Stefano Marmi Fabrizio Lillo 《Quantitative Finance》2013,13(7):1137-1156
Instabilities in the price dynamics of a large number of financial assets are a clear sign of systemic events. By investigating portfolios of highly liquid stocks, we find that there are a large number of high-frequency cojumps. We show that the dynamics of these jumps is described neither by a multivariate Poisson nor by a multivariate Hawkes model. We introduce a Hawkes one-factor model which is able to capture simultaneously the time clustering of jumps and the high synchronization of jumps across assets. 相似文献
43.
The study discusses the recovery of the Argentine financial system after the crisis of the so called convertibility regime of the 1990s. The Argentine macroeconomic regime established in 1991 and based on the hard peg of the peso to the dollar at a 1 to 1 parity ended in a multiple crisis in 2001–2. Beyond the default on the public debt, the crisis also involved the breakdown of the domestic financial system, and an almost complete isolation of the country from the international financial markets as a consequence of the default. Under such a deep crisis and the consequent uncertainty, the recovery of the solvency of the financial institutions was an almost insurmountable enterprise. However, with a gradualist approach (contrary to the advice of the International Monetary Fund) and a degree of “regulatory forbearance,” the financial and monetary authorities were able to recover the health of the financial system, which became much more resilient to shocks, even if its development has been very slow and, as a consequence, the contribution of domestic credit to the economic expansion of the 2000s can be considered almost negligible. 相似文献
44.
Paul Blyton Miguel Martinez Lucio 《International Journal of Human Resource Management》2013,24(2):271-291
Any analysis of workforce flexibility within particular countries needs to take account not only of the character of industrial relations and union organization at workplace and company levels, but also of how actions at those levels are influenced by broader regulatory arrangements covering employment and work practices. In other words, to avoid the over-simplifications and over-generalizations which much of the flexibility debate has in the past been (correctly) accused of and to expand the analysis offered by the relatively broad-brush, multi-country studies, it is necessary to locate issues of flexibility more securely within both existing national regulatory and institutional frameworks, and also to take account of patterns of union organization and job regulation at the local level, and the ways unions and workforces have responded to (and at times even shaped) different flexibility initiatives by employers. By analysing different types of enterprise in Spain and the United Kingdom, this article seeks to illustrate the role and significance of these factors for the particular development of workforce flexibility in the two countries. 相似文献
45.
This paper investigates the empirical relation between spot and forward implied volatility in foreign exchange. We formulate and test the forward volatility unbiasedness hypothesis, which may be viewed as the volatility analogue to the extensively researched hypothesis of unbiasedness in forward exchange rates. Using a new dataset of spot implied volatility quoted on over-the-counter currency options, we compute the forward implied volatility that corresponds to the delivery price of a forward contract on future spot implied volatility. This contract is known as a forward volatility agreement. We find strong evidence that forward implied volatility is a systematically biased predictor that overestimates movements in future spot implied volatility. This bias in forward volatility generates high economic value to an investor exploiting predictability in the returns to volatility speculation and indicates the presence of predictable volatility term premiums in foreign exchange. 相似文献
46.
This paper examines the economic consequences of technology transfer through licensing in a North–South model of vertical product differentiation, based on a product‐line pricing framework. With its limited technological expertise, the southern firm cannot export to the northern market without purchasing the northern firm's “clean” and low‐cost technology. With North–South cost‐asymmetry, we conclude that the transfer of technology through licensing promotes trade, product variety and improves global welfare. However, without government intervention, the private levels of product quality chosen by firms tend to be lower than the socially optimal levels. This finding helps to explain why developed countries often set quality standards for imported foreign products. 相似文献
47.
This paper re-examines the predictive ability of the consumption–wealth ratio (cay) on the equity premium using hand-collected annual data spanning one century for four major economies. In addition to statistical tests of out-of-sample forecast accuracy, we measure the economic value of the predictive information in cay in a stylized asset allocation strategy. We find that cay does not contain predictive power prior to World War II, when a structural break occurs for all countries. In the postwar period, while statistical tests provide mixed evidence, economic criteria uncover substantial predictive power in cay, further enhanced when allowing for economically meaningful restrictions. 相似文献
48.
Richard H. Clarida Lucio Sarno Mark P. Taylor Giorgio Valente 《Journal of International Economics》2003,60(1):61-83
A large literature suggests that standard exchange rate models cannot outperform a random walk forecast and that the forward rate is not an optimal predictor of the spot rate. However, there is evidence that the term structure of forward premia contains valuable information for forecasting future spot exchange rates and that exchange rate dynamics display nonlinearities. This paper proposes a term-structure forecasting model of exchange rates based on a regime-switching vector equilibrium correction model which is novel in this context. Our model significantly outperforms both a random walk and, to a lesser extent, a linear term-structure vector equilibrium correction model for four major dollar rates across a range of horizons. 相似文献
49.
abstract Literature on innovation networks reveals little of to what extent different types of knowledge are exchanged and combined by collaborating firms to foster innovation. Based on field research in the aerospace industrial cluster of Rome, this study investigates the exchange of technological, market and managerial knowledge. Using social network analysis, the paper shows that the three types of knowledge are unevenly distributed and exchanged, thus revealing that the process of exchange is knowledge-specific. Further, it is found that in most collaborative relationships, partners exchange technological knowledge together with market and managerial knowledge, emphasizing the complex nature of the innovation process which requires access to and recombination of diverse knowledge. This phenomenon concerns not only large companies, but also small-to-medium enterprises. The reconsideration of the relative salience of the three types of knowledge has remarkable managerial and theoretical implications, which are developed in terms of propositions offered for further research. 相似文献
50.
This article focuses on the determinants of the large portfolioflows from the United States to Latin American and Asian countriesduring 198892. Cointegration techniques reveal that bothdomestic and global factors explain bond and equity flows todeveloping countries and represent significant long-run determinantsof portfolio flows. The article also investigates the dynamicsof portfolio flows by estimating seemingly unrelated error-correctionmodels. Global and country-specific factors are equally importantin determining the long-run movements in equity flows for bothAsian and Latin American countries, while global factors aremuch more important than domestic factors in explaining thedynamics of bond flows. U.S. interest rates are a particularlyimportant determinant of the short-run dynamics of portfolio,especially bond, flows to developing countries. 相似文献